See, I knew people way smarter than me with advanced hedging strategies like phobanbud would arrive.
Take it away boys....
A couple questions and 1 point that is tough to comprehend for Amarillo Slilm quoted above: Question # 1.) What is your expert mathematical opinion on a parlay in which the final game on your card is Team X -6 and the game time line is -9? What is so fundamentally wrong with having Team x-6 as part of a nice parlay and then having Team Y+9 as a hedge? Is there anything you dont like about having a chance to double-dip on the same game? Point #1 I understand you are most likely a 'professional gambler,' but as someone who gambles for enjoyment as well as money, parlays can be more enjoyable than straight wagers. Question #2: Is your undeniable arrogance forced or natural? I don't think I have read one post of yours that didnt have an underlying prick message or sarcastic tone. Why do I get the feeling that your avatar is you gettingdressed for a Saturday night on the town?
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Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
See, I knew people way smarter than me with advanced hedging strategies like phobanbud would arrive.
Take it away boys....
A couple questions and 1 point that is tough to comprehend for Amarillo Slilm quoted above: Question # 1.) What is your expert mathematical opinion on a parlay in which the final game on your card is Team X -6 and the game time line is -9? What is so fundamentally wrong with having Team x-6 as part of a nice parlay and then having Team Y+9 as a hedge? Is there anything you dont like about having a chance to double-dip on the same game? Point #1 I understand you are most likely a 'professional gambler,' but as someone who gambles for enjoyment as well as money, parlays can be more enjoyable than straight wagers. Question #2: Is your undeniable arrogance forced or natural? I don't think I have read one post of yours that didnt have an underlying prick message or sarcastic tone. Why do I get the feeling that your avatar is you gettingdressed for a Saturday night on the town?
Super. So, $2,300 tonight + $1,110 last night (depending on your payout, mine was $1,100.) = $2,410. So we are disagreeing $100. I really don't care about $50 or $100. Additionally, if the line runs, I now have a chance to hit a big middle.
Thanks for all the advice, Van. If you don't like parlays and hedges, that is great for you. You play your strategies, I'll play mine.
No problems...
You say it best - some care about the 50 or 100 bucks - some dont. I care and sometimes make the incorrect assumption that everyone cares.
Either way, GL tonight and in the rest of your plays.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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Quote Originally Posted by BonkNYC:
Super. So, $2,300 tonight + $1,110 last night (depending on your payout, mine was $1,100.) = $2,410. So we are disagreeing $100. I really don't care about $50 or $100. Additionally, if the line runs, I now have a chance to hit a big middle.
Thanks for all the advice, Van. If you don't like parlays and hedges, that is great for you. You play your strategies, I'll play mine.
No problems...
You say it best - some care about the 50 or 100 bucks - some dont. I care and sometimes make the incorrect assumption that everyone cares.
Either way, GL tonight and in the rest of your plays.
Sorry.... working on the Friday after Chirstmas gets at me. The whole "banks cant be closed for three straight days" thing means the financial pit is nothing more than distressed brokers/traders alike.
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Sorry.... working on the Friday after Chirstmas gets at me. The whole "banks cant be closed for three straight days" thing means the financial pit is nothing more than distressed brokers/traders alike.
Also, here is my opinion on this whole hedging matter...Van is correct about the math but psychologically, it also depends on how much is your bankroll. For example in your case, you're willing to throw away $ 250 on a 3 team parlay, and now you have an opportunity to either let it ride or hedge back to get some guaranteed money. The problem with with Van's saying is that exactly how many bettors out there are willing to double up after winning the 2 team parlays and getting the cash in your hand already. Like I said before, this only depends on your bankroll. Some people are willing to risk $ 250 to win $ 2300 but when you already have the $ 1300 in your hand already, are you willing to bet another $ 1100 to win the total amount $ $ 2400 or will you bet smaller than the $ 1300 to ensure that you will get the $ 250 back plus some profit.
Sorry if it sounds confusing. BOL with your play tonight whatever you decide to do.
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Also, here is my opinion on this whole hedging matter...Van is correct about the math but psychologically, it also depends on how much is your bankroll. For example in your case, you're willing to throw away $ 250 on a 3 team parlay, and now you have an opportunity to either let it ride or hedge back to get some guaranteed money. The problem with with Van's saying is that exactly how many bettors out there are willing to double up after winning the 2 team parlays and getting the cash in your hand already. Like I said before, this only depends on your bankroll. Some people are willing to risk $ 250 to win $ 2300 but when you already have the $ 1300 in your hand already, are you willing to bet another $ 1100 to win the total amount $ $ 2400 or will you bet smaller than the $ 1300 to ensure that you will get the $ 250 back plus some profit.
Sorry if it sounds confusing. BOL with your play tonight whatever you decide to do.
A couple questions and 1 point that is tough to comprehend for Amarillo Slilm quoted above: Question # 1.) What is your expert mathematical opinion on a parlay in which the final game on your card is Team X -6 and the game time line is -9? What is so fundamentally wrong with having Team x-6 as part of a nice parlay and then having Team Y+9 as a hedge? Is there anything you dont like about having a chance to double-dip on the same game? Point #1 I understand you are most likely a 'professional gambler,' but as someone who gambles for enjoyment as well as money, parlays can be more enjoyable than straight wagers. Question #2: Is your undeniable arrogance forced or natural? I don't think I have read one post of yours that didnt have an underlying prick message or sarcastic tone. Why do I get the feeling that your avatar is you gettingdressed for a Saturday night on the town?
Honest answers:
If you are trying to take advantage of a line you think will move, you are better off putting a straight wager on them instead of the last team of a parlay. Simple reason - you will not be able to take advantage of a line move in a parlay most of the time because you will already be out. If you enjoy parlays - GREAT!! - im not suggesting you dont bet parlays - I am suggesting a way to make more money betting the same thing. Its kind of like seeing charmin at Walmart for 1.69, and then seeing the same exact charmin at Albertsons for 1.99 - Im just giving you a way to buy it for 1.69 every time. But as the original poster says, sometimes he doesnt care about the .30 cents he saves by going to walmart - and that is ok too.
To answer your second question:
The downside of being smarter than everyone else, and always right, is that people tend to assum you are arrogant. Its just part of the deal I guess.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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Quote Originally Posted by phobanbud:
A couple questions and 1 point that is tough to comprehend for Amarillo Slilm quoted above: Question # 1.) What is your expert mathematical opinion on a parlay in which the final game on your card is Team X -6 and the game time line is -9? What is so fundamentally wrong with having Team x-6 as part of a nice parlay and then having Team Y+9 as a hedge? Is there anything you dont like about having a chance to double-dip on the same game? Point #1 I understand you are most likely a 'professional gambler,' but as someone who gambles for enjoyment as well as money, parlays can be more enjoyable than straight wagers. Question #2: Is your undeniable arrogance forced or natural? I don't think I have read one post of yours that didnt have an underlying prick message or sarcastic tone. Why do I get the feeling that your avatar is you gettingdressed for a Saturday night on the town?
Honest answers:
If you are trying to take advantage of a line you think will move, you are better off putting a straight wager on them instead of the last team of a parlay. Simple reason - you will not be able to take advantage of a line move in a parlay most of the time because you will already be out. If you enjoy parlays - GREAT!! - im not suggesting you dont bet parlays - I am suggesting a way to make more money betting the same thing. Its kind of like seeing charmin at Walmart for 1.69, and then seeing the same exact charmin at Albertsons for 1.99 - Im just giving you a way to buy it for 1.69 every time. But as the original poster says, sometimes he doesnt care about the .30 cents he saves by going to walmart - and that is ok too.
To answer your second question:
The downside of being smarter than everyone else, and always right, is that people tend to assum you are arrogant. Its just part of the deal I guess.
Smarter than everyone else is all relative to the topic at hand. I have to imagine typing with one hand while patting youself on the back is tough to do.
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Smarter than everyone else is all relative to the topic at hand. I have to imagine typing with one hand while patting youself on the back is tough to do.
I am seeing it at 7.5 lots of places now....Play FAU at 7.5 for at least 500, and you have a chance for a middle to win both plays, and worst case, you double your $ on the parlay....
OR bet more on FAU, keeping in mind whatever you bet could be cutting into your profits if CMU blows them out.
Solid idea to hedge and guarantee a profit, as it is good money management. Ignore all the morons here who have no $ management skills.
GL
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Bonk----
I am seeing it at 7.5 lots of places now....Play FAU at 7.5 for at least 500, and you have a chance for a middle to win both plays, and worst case, you double your $ on the parlay....
OR bet more on FAU, keeping in mind whatever you bet could be cutting into your profits if CMU blows them out.
Solid idea to hedge and guarantee a profit, as it is good money management. Ignore all the morons here who have no $ management skills.
If you are trying to take advantage of a line you think will move, you are better off putting a straight wager on them instead of the last team of a parlay. Simple reason - you will not be able to take advantage of a line move in a parlay most of the time because you will already be out. If you enjoy parlays - GREAT!! - im not suggesting you dont bet parlays - I am suggesting a way to make more money betting the same thing. Its kind of like seeing charmin at Walmart for 1.69, and then seeing the same exact charmin at Albertsons for 1.99 - Im just giving you a way to buy it for 1.69 every time. But as the original poster says, sometimes he doesnt care about the .30 cents he saves by going to walmart - and that is ok too.
To answer your second question:
The downside of being smarter than everyone else, and always right, is that people tend to assum you are arrogant. Its just part of the deal I guess.
being smart and humble about it is different than being smart and acting like a prick about it. That's my take on this statement.
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Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
Honest answers:
If you are trying to take advantage of a line you think will move, you are better off putting a straight wager on them instead of the last team of a parlay. Simple reason - you will not be able to take advantage of a line move in a parlay most of the time because you will already be out. If you enjoy parlays - GREAT!! - im not suggesting you dont bet parlays - I am suggesting a way to make more money betting the same thing. Its kind of like seeing charmin at Walmart for 1.69, and then seeing the same exact charmin at Albertsons for 1.99 - Im just giving you a way to buy it for 1.69 every time. But as the original poster says, sometimes he doesnt care about the .30 cents he saves by going to walmart - and that is ok too.
To answer your second question:
The downside of being smarter than everyone else, and always right, is that people tend to assum you are arrogant. Its just part of the deal I guess.
being smart and humble about it is different than being smart and acting like a prick about it. That's my take on this statement.
Bonk....you are a gambler like, like most....parlays appeal to us....
Vanzacks math is undisputable.....BUT, to make the same amount of money that a parlay would bring, you have to risk EVERYTHING you started with......play a 2 teamer and roll it over or play 2 straight bets and roll it over......
In gambling, the bottomline is all that matters.....you bet a 3 team parlay, and while "in theory" it is a mistake, you now have a chance for GUARANTEED PROFIT....you could bet roughly 1200 on FAU and make a grand GUARANTEED....your 250 bet has set u up for a minimum of 4x profit....not bad
Also, this isnt technically hedging since you can now get FAU +7.5 ......a middle opportunity has developed .....you put yourself in a nice spot to take FAU +7.5 and win a grand, or perhaps 3600....all for a 250 investment.....I would definately take FAU +7.5, maybe not for the 1200 if you really like CMU, but atleast 500...why risk losing 250??
gl bro
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Vanzack is correct....he usually is......
Bonk....you are a gambler like, like most....parlays appeal to us....
Vanzacks math is undisputable.....BUT, to make the same amount of money that a parlay would bring, you have to risk EVERYTHING you started with......play a 2 teamer and roll it over or play 2 straight bets and roll it over......
In gambling, the bottomline is all that matters.....you bet a 3 team parlay, and while "in theory" it is a mistake, you now have a chance for GUARANTEED PROFIT....you could bet roughly 1200 on FAU and make a grand GUARANTEED....your 250 bet has set u up for a minimum of 4x profit....not bad
Also, this isnt technically hedging since you can now get FAU +7.5 ......a middle opportunity has developed .....you put yourself in a nice spot to take FAU +7.5 and win a grand, or perhaps 3600....all for a 250 investment.....I would definately take FAU +7.5, maybe not for the 1200 if you really like CMU, but atleast 500...why risk losing 250??
This is the disadvantage to playing with only on guy, a neighborhood guy who happens to have an internet site (which I love.) I cannot get the 7.5 yet, but am willing to be patient. (Luckily, can wager from my Blackberry, LOL.)
if my line goes to 7.5, I think I am going to buy to 8 and lock in the profit.
PS... Train. I know pro gamblers say parlays are a sucker's bet and I understand that belief. Me? I like the gamble and if I find two teams I really like and a third dog that I think has a shot, I'll add to my straight bets and play for the big payout.
I once bought myself a truck with the profits from a 3 team goal line hockey parlay when the Flyers scored with 3 secs on the clock for the winner in the late game after Colorado and Detroit won their games huge! $300 got back over $8,800 at The Greek. (I don't play there any more)
Anyway, thanks for the ideas gents. Wish you all (except those backing FAU tonight) luck in your wagers.
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This is the disadvantage to playing with only on guy, a neighborhood guy who happens to have an internet site (which I love.) I cannot get the 7.5 yet, but am willing to be patient. (Luckily, can wager from my Blackberry, LOL.)
if my line goes to 7.5, I think I am going to buy to 8 and lock in the profit.
PS... Train. I know pro gamblers say parlays are a sucker's bet and I understand that belief. Me? I like the gamble and if I find two teams I really like and a third dog that I think has a shot, I'll add to my straight bets and play for the big payout.
I once bought myself a truck with the profits from a 3 team goal line hockey parlay when the Flyers scored with 3 secs on the clock for the winner in the late game after Colorado and Detroit won their games huge! $300 got back over $8,800 at The Greek. (I don't play there any more)
Anyway, thanks for the ideas gents. Wish you all (except those backing FAU tonight) luck in your wagers.
Great Thread... keeping me thoroughly entertained at work.
For what it's worth...here's my 2 cents... Van sounds like he's interested in maximizing profit while minimizing risk. Somebody who does this to generate income certainly cares about the extra $50 - $100. That money adds up across multiple bets. Now, if this is clearly a hobby and you're not concerned about maximizing profit while minimizing risk, then don't listen to Van. I completely see his point... but I also understand where Bonk's coming from.... what's $50 when you have an opportunity to bring in 2 gs.
BOL to you all and happy holidays
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Great Thread... keeping me thoroughly entertained at work.
For what it's worth...here's my 2 cents... Van sounds like he's interested in maximizing profit while minimizing risk. Somebody who does this to generate income certainly cares about the extra $50 - $100. That money adds up across multiple bets. Now, if this is clearly a hobby and you're not concerned about maximizing profit while minimizing risk, then don't listen to Van. I completely see his point... but I also understand where Bonk's coming from.... what's $50 when you have an opportunity to bring in 2 gs.
vanzack: I feel you man. Trying to explain a fully grown man that 2 + 2 = 4 and he argues back at you. Sometimes being right is not that great of a feeling when the person you're arguing with just won't comprehend simple math.
And we all know it's because of people like bonk that big shiny building pop out in the middle of the desert.
Hedging = Giving free money to the books. Simple.
Let me try to explain with examples. Listen very carefully to what I'm about to say Bonk, I am not giving my opinion or debating anything, I am simply going to present some mathematical facts and examples.
Think of parlays as accumulators.
Ie: Step 1 Risk $110 to win $100 on Game 1 (after the game) Step 2 Risk $210 to win $190.90 on Game 2 (after the game) Step 3 Risk $400.90 to win $364.45 on Game 3 (win!) You now have $765.35 in your hands, from risking $110, a total profit of $655.35
OR
Make a 3-play parlay for $110 to win:
[((1/1.1) + 1)^3 - 1]*$110 = $655.37
Oops! It comes to the same thing!
Now let us assume that you wish to make a 3-play parlay on 2 games today and 1 game tommorow, with the intention of hedging tommorow if you go 2-0 today.
You wish to make the parlay for $110 again that'll win you $655.37. Say you go 2-0.
Now if you win Game 3, you'll have $765.37 in your pocket. But if you hedge for say $220, a win = $545.37 in your pockets. Agreed? A loss = $200 in your pockets.
That $220 came OUT of your pocket in order to hedge so whatever your return, you have to return that $220 back to your pocket in order to account what that "parlay-hedge" combo brought to you.
You like to have money in your pocket if you lose this game 3 but you like to have more if you win, correct?
If you win, you want to have $545.37, and if you lose, you want to have $200 in your pockets.
You can take off the $110 at the end of both scenarios since you're risking $110 anyways.
Here is what you do:
You make a 2-play parlay for about $66
And you make a 3-play parlay for the rest ($44)
If you win the first 2 games, you have:
$66*[((1/1.1)+1)^2-1] = $174 plus your stakes, $240
If you win the third game, you have:
$44*[((1/1.1)+1)^3-1] = $262 plus your stakes, $306
For a total of $546 plus your $110.
If you win only the first 2 games, then you $240 - the $44 invested in the 3-game parlay.
If you don't go 2-0, you lose $110 in either case.
Don't ask me how I got to $66 and $44, sometimes when you have experience, you just learn how to break up your parlays if you want "money in the bank" sooner than all games are decided.
Do I stay away from hedges all the time? Absolutely not. If I have a 6-gamer, an 8-gamer, a 7-gamer, all stretched over a week time (or more), like the Bowl games, and I need the one game at the end to win a fortune, I might hedge to get "something in the pocket" for a fraction on the total potential win, only so that I would have something to play Poker with or something in case I lose. But I could have made all my parlays for maybe 80% of what I made them for and make them again for the other 20% of the amount on the same games, excluding the last game.
I'm sure glad I took finance in university. Weighted averages, linear programming, constraints, it all helps in gambling just as much as it helps in business.
Good luck to you
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vanzack: I feel you man. Trying to explain a fully grown man that 2 + 2 = 4 and he argues back at you. Sometimes being right is not that great of a feeling when the person you're arguing with just won't comprehend simple math.
And we all know it's because of people like bonk that big shiny building pop out in the middle of the desert.
Hedging = Giving free money to the books. Simple.
Let me try to explain with examples. Listen very carefully to what I'm about to say Bonk, I am not giving my opinion or debating anything, I am simply going to present some mathematical facts and examples.
Think of parlays as accumulators.
Ie: Step 1 Risk $110 to win $100 on Game 1 (after the game) Step 2 Risk $210 to win $190.90 on Game 2 (after the game) Step 3 Risk $400.90 to win $364.45 on Game 3 (win!) You now have $765.35 in your hands, from risking $110, a total profit of $655.35
OR
Make a 3-play parlay for $110 to win:
[((1/1.1) + 1)^3 - 1]*$110 = $655.37
Oops! It comes to the same thing!
Now let us assume that you wish to make a 3-play parlay on 2 games today and 1 game tommorow, with the intention of hedging tommorow if you go 2-0 today.
You wish to make the parlay for $110 again that'll win you $655.37. Say you go 2-0.
Now if you win Game 3, you'll have $765.37 in your pocket. But if you hedge for say $220, a win = $545.37 in your pockets. Agreed? A loss = $200 in your pockets.
That $220 came OUT of your pocket in order to hedge so whatever your return, you have to return that $220 back to your pocket in order to account what that "parlay-hedge" combo brought to you.
You like to have money in your pocket if you lose this game 3 but you like to have more if you win, correct?
If you win, you want to have $545.37, and if you lose, you want to have $200 in your pockets.
You can take off the $110 at the end of both scenarios since you're risking $110 anyways.
Here is what you do:
You make a 2-play parlay for about $66
And you make a 3-play parlay for the rest ($44)
If you win the first 2 games, you have:
$66*[((1/1.1)+1)^2-1] = $174 plus your stakes, $240
If you win the third game, you have:
$44*[((1/1.1)+1)^3-1] = $262 plus your stakes, $306
For a total of $546 plus your $110.
If you win only the first 2 games, then you $240 - the $44 invested in the 3-game parlay.
If you don't go 2-0, you lose $110 in either case.
Don't ask me how I got to $66 and $44, sometimes when you have experience, you just learn how to break up your parlays if you want "money in the bank" sooner than all games are decided.
Do I stay away from hedges all the time? Absolutely not. If I have a 6-gamer, an 8-gamer, a 7-gamer, all stretched over a week time (or more), like the Bowl games, and I need the one game at the end to win a fortune, I might hedge to get "something in the pocket" for a fraction on the total potential win, only so that I would have something to play Poker with or something in case I lose. But I could have made all my parlays for maybe 80% of what I made them for and make them again for the other 20% of the amount on the same games, excluding the last game.
I'm sure glad I took finance in university. Weighted averages, linear programming, constraints, it all helps in gambling just as much as it helps in business.
I dont think any of the pundits get the fact that the math is understood. At no point did I disagree with your theories. Huge Ballz, I was a finance major as well. I am an options trader.... although the majority of the big traders didnt even go to school. It doesnt take a college degree to understand your points. I appreciate you spelling it out for everyone, but once again, I think eventually the forum came to the consensus that parlays are a suckers bet for those only playing for profit. I just think vanz needs work on his manners.
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I dont think any of the pundits get the fact that the math is understood. At no point did I disagree with your theories. Huge Ballz, I was a finance major as well. I am an options trader.... although the majority of the big traders didnt even go to school. It doesnt take a college degree to understand your points. I appreciate you spelling it out for everyone, but once again, I think eventually the forum came to the consensus that parlays are a suckers bet for those only playing for profit. I just think vanz needs work on his manners.
If you wanted to lock in money, why didnt you just bet Dallas and Dallas over in a parlay?
Then today you could have bet whatever you wanted.
I realize this is a really dumb thought, and I will be ridiculed for suggesting it, but it just seems to me that if you are going to bet a parlay you shouldnt bet games that start on different days because you will be in the position you are in now, and make less money. But what do I know?
Im sure you will get plenty of smarter advice here.
How much math does it take to realize that not only does the above statement not answer the original question, but is also sarcastic as hell?
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Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
If you wanted to lock in money, why didnt you just bet Dallas and Dallas over in a parlay?
Then today you could have bet whatever you wanted.
I realize this is a really dumb thought, and I will be ridiculed for suggesting it, but it just seems to me that if you are going to bet a parlay you shouldnt bet games that start on different days because you will be in the position you are in now, and make less money. But what do I know?
Im sure you will get plenty of smarter advice here.
How much math does it take to realize that not only does the above statement not answer the original question, but is also sarcastic as hell?
I usually don't care much about what Van says or how his followers always like to kiss his ass but after reading this comment he made about the people at this site, it just made me realizes that he's is just a classless prick who thinks he knows more about others here. Van...in case you don't realize, a lot of people are smarter than you think it's just some don't feel the need to act like they're to feel good about themselves.
"I go in cycles, there are times that I cant resist the action of being
the smartest guy in the room at covers (not bragging, actually that is
calling myself somewhat of a moron) - but it gets old so fast. When i
need some brain power this is the place, and when I need to practice my
cynicism and WWE writing skills - I go over there. But honestly, it is
so brutal there now, the average gambling IQ there is sub retarded
bordering on a vegetative state - and it is often like trying to teach
physics to Beetlejuice - and like I said my persistence is more a
reflection on my own character flaws than the actual attraction of
talking to hundreds of morons at once."
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I usually don't care much about what Van says or how his followers always like to kiss his ass but after reading this comment he made about the people at this site, it just made me realizes that he's is just a classless prick who thinks he knows more about others here. Van...in case you don't realize, a lot of people are smarter than you think it's just some don't feel the need to act like they're to feel good about themselves.
"I go in cycles, there are times that I cant resist the action of being
the smartest guy in the room at covers (not bragging, actually that is
calling myself somewhat of a moron) - but it gets old so fast. When i
need some brain power this is the place, and when I need to practice my
cynicism and WWE writing skills - I go over there. But honestly, it is
so brutal there now, the average gambling IQ there is sub retarded
bordering on a vegetative state - and it is often like trying to teach
physics to Beetlejuice - and like I said my persistence is more a
reflection on my own character flaws than the actual attraction of
talking to hundreds of morons at once."
.....you put yourself in a nice spot to take FAU +7.5 and win a grand, or perhaps 3600....all for a 250 investment.....I would definately take FAU +7.5, maybe not for the 1200 if you really like CMU, but atleast 500...why risk losing 250??
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