I posted this in another thread on Rice, and wanted to make sure everyone got a chance to read it. I am a die hard Texas Tech fan and alum, and am a member of all the Tech football pay sites (i.e., rivals, scout), and follow this team religiously. I am not suggesting everyone blindly tail the plays I suggest below, but this is how I think the game will play out.
That said, I will be betting $300 on the TCU ml because the sting of losing is less when I bet on the other team. I'd rather us win and lose $300 any day. That said, I think TCU is a faster team. While our defensive line is the best position on our team, we are very young in the secondary, and conceded around 350 yards against a bad qb in garret Gilbert against TCU. I was personally hoping pachall would play because their oline is weak and the mobility of Boykin will neutralize our defensive lines advantage over their oline.
On the other side of the ball, our oline is very very young and and the worst we've had here in Lubbock since before the Leach era. We will be able to generate no run game, so look for TCU to drop 7-8 in coverage against our walk on true freshman qb. Our wide receivers and our stud tight end jace amaro are really solid, and Amaro will be a first 3 round draft pick if he leaves this year and a 1st or 2nd round pick if he stays through his senior year. Our top WR Eric Ward is a senior and the heart and soul of our offense. He will be matched up against Verrett all game and I think they are an even matchup. We finally have two players in Bradley Marquez and Jakeem Grant who can stretch a defense vertically, which is something we haven't had since Crabtree, and our freshman has one of the strongest arms of any of the QBs we've had since billy joe tolliver in the mid 80s. That said, I expect us to throw many intermediate screens and short patterns because TCUs defensive line will feast on our inexperienced oline. They have a huge advantage there, and I just don't see baker mayfield having the time to spend 4-5 seconds scanning the field.
This is our first true test of the year, and while I love my Red Raiders, I would be very surprised if we win tomorrow. Gary Patterson will have our QBs head spinning with so many different looks and frankly as a true freshman walk on he hasn't seen anything like that in his life and nothing can simulate the team speed of TCUs defense.
As far as home field advantage goes, we used to have one of the top home field advantages in the FBS until that snake oil salesman Tubs came to Lubbock. We have never lost at home like we have the last 3 years, and I'm praying Kliff can make Jones AT&T stadium one of the loudest and toughest venues once again. The black out at night is always pretty intimidating, and we set a student attendance record vs. SFA in our last game which was also Kliff's home debut. I expect us to have at least 15,000 students in attendance, as Tech has tried rescheduling classes and done a marketing campaign to break the attendance record set last Saturday vs. SFA. TCU however seems to be better on the road, because simply put they have no home field advantage because their students and alums don't go to their games. TCU lost every Big 12 game at home last year, but did very well on the road. I think the home field advantage will help, but shouldn't phase Boykin and their defense.
Last, both teams are playing on short rest. We rested our starters at halftime against SFA and I believe Patterson had his in for most of the game against Directional Louisiana State but maybe pulled them in the 4th quarter once the game was in hand. However, given the short week for both, I expect this to affect our young coaching staff more in regards to game planning for TCU than I expect it to affect Patterson. I think this is a slight advantage to TCU that will ultimately balance out the home field advantage we have.
I expect TCU to win 31-21, cover the -3/3.5 and if I had a guess it will go under the total as I just don't see our walk on freshman overcoming the emotion and pressure of our first conference game on national tv against one of the better big 12 teams. I think our team total under 30 is the 2nd best bet after the TCU -3,-3.5. Pray to god I'm wrong and we beat the frogs but just don't think it will happen this year, their defensive team speed will be too much for our short passing game and absolutely Zero running game. Wreck Em Tech!
I posted this in another thread on Rice, and wanted to make sure everyone got a chance to read it. I am a die hard Texas Tech fan and alum, and am a member of all the Tech football pay sites (i.e., rivals, scout), and follow this team religiously. I am not suggesting everyone blindly tail the plays I suggest below, but this is how I think the game will play out.
That said, I will be betting $300 on the TCU ml because the sting of losing is less when I bet on the other team. I'd rather us win and lose $300 any day. That said, I think TCU is a faster team. While our defensive line is the best position on our team, we are very young in the secondary, and conceded around 350 yards against a bad qb in garret Gilbert against TCU. I was personally hoping pachall would play because their oline is weak and the mobility of Boykin will neutralize our defensive lines advantage over their oline.
On the other side of the ball, our oline is very very young and and the worst we've had here in Lubbock since before the Leach era. We will be able to generate no run game, so look for TCU to drop 7-8 in coverage against our walk on true freshman qb. Our wide receivers and our stud tight end jace amaro are really solid, and Amaro will be a first 3 round draft pick if he leaves this year and a 1st or 2nd round pick if he stays through his senior year. Our top WR Eric Ward is a senior and the heart and soul of our offense. He will be matched up against Verrett all game and I think they are an even matchup. We finally have two players in Bradley Marquez and Jakeem Grant who can stretch a defense vertically, which is something we haven't had since Crabtree, and our freshman has one of the strongest arms of any of the QBs we've had since billy joe tolliver in the mid 80s. That said, I expect us to throw many intermediate screens and short patterns because TCUs defensive line will feast on our inexperienced oline. They have a huge advantage there, and I just don't see baker mayfield having the time to spend 4-5 seconds scanning the field.
This is our first true test of the year, and while I love my Red Raiders, I would be very surprised if we win tomorrow. Gary Patterson will have our QBs head spinning with so many different looks and frankly as a true freshman walk on he hasn't seen anything like that in his life and nothing can simulate the team speed of TCUs defense.
As far as home field advantage goes, we used to have one of the top home field advantages in the FBS until that snake oil salesman Tubs came to Lubbock. We have never lost at home like we have the last 3 years, and I'm praying Kliff can make Jones AT&T stadium one of the loudest and toughest venues once again. The black out at night is always pretty intimidating, and we set a student attendance record vs. SFA in our last game which was also Kliff's home debut. I expect us to have at least 15,000 students in attendance, as Tech has tried rescheduling classes and done a marketing campaign to break the attendance record set last Saturday vs. SFA. TCU however seems to be better on the road, because simply put they have no home field advantage because their students and alums don't go to their games. TCU lost every Big 12 game at home last year, but did very well on the road. I think the home field advantage will help, but shouldn't phase Boykin and their defense.
Last, both teams are playing on short rest. We rested our starters at halftime against SFA and I believe Patterson had his in for most of the game against Directional Louisiana State but maybe pulled them in the 4th quarter once the game was in hand. However, given the short week for both, I expect this to affect our young coaching staff more in regards to game planning for TCU than I expect it to affect Patterson. I think this is a slight advantage to TCU that will ultimately balance out the home field advantage we have.
I expect TCU to win 31-21, cover the -3/3.5 and if I had a guess it will go under the total as I just don't see our walk on freshman overcoming the emotion and pressure of our first conference game on national tv against one of the better big 12 teams. I think our team total under 30 is the 2nd best bet after the TCU -3,-3.5. Pray to god I'm wrong and we beat the frogs but just don't think it will happen this year, their defensive team speed will be too much for our short passing game and absolutely Zero running game. Wreck Em Tech!
I could see that but if it does it will be because TCU puts 45 points on the scoreboard. I just don't see us moving the ball well enough to score over our team total of 30, and we are absolutely awful at forcing turnovers, so I anticipate all of our points be hard earned. I am personally avoiding the total, and am simply putting $300 down on the TCU ml, because my heart will be broken and the sports depression will ensue if we lose, no matter what the score is. I am simply suggesting that as a die hard follower of Tech football, the best bets are TCU -3 and our TT under 30. I don't know how effective our defense will be and thus would recommend avoiding the O/U since we look decent this year, but haven't played anyone remotely close to TCU's talent level.
I could see that but if it does it will be because TCU puts 45 points on the scoreboard. I just don't see us moving the ball well enough to score over our team total of 30, and we are absolutely awful at forcing turnovers, so I anticipate all of our points be hard earned. I am personally avoiding the total, and am simply putting $300 down on the TCU ml, because my heart will be broken and the sports depression will ensue if we lose, no matter what the score is. I am simply suggesting that as a die hard follower of Tech football, the best bets are TCU -3 and our TT under 30. I don't know how effective our defense will be and thus would recommend avoiding the O/U since we look decent this year, but haven't played anyone remotely close to TCU's talent level.
I like your write-up and thank you for your insights to this game. Your loyalty for your school stops at your wallet and this is sound gambling advice. I would go one step further and place a spread bet on Tech just in case. I did this last year with Boise St. at Mi. St. Or quite possibly that game was the last one of a teaser play so I tried to middle the game. The issues you describe are similar to ours here in the Pacific with a crap offensive line, red shirt soph or jr qb, he is a transfer from Ohio St. and sat out last year as he knew he was not fitting in Urban Meyer's scheme. His first collegiate snap may have been his first since high school. Our skill players are good and the defense is stout, really kept us in games versus USC and Oregon St. We have covered our first two games and next week we play at NV and I think we do it again.
I like your write-up and thank you for your insights to this game. Your loyalty for your school stops at your wallet and this is sound gambling advice. I would go one step further and place a spread bet on Tech just in case. I did this last year with Boise St. at Mi. St. Or quite possibly that game was the last one of a teaser play so I tried to middle the game. The issues you describe are similar to ours here in the Pacific with a crap offensive line, red shirt soph or jr qb, he is a transfer from Ohio St. and sat out last year as he knew he was not fitting in Urban Meyer's scheme. His first collegiate snap may have been his first since high school. Our skill players are good and the defense is stout, really kept us in games versus USC and Oregon St. We have covered our first two games and next week we play at NV and I think we do it again.
That said, I will be betting $300 on the TCU ml because the sting of losing is less when I bet on the other team. I'd rather us win and lose $300 any day.
You sound like me with the LA Lakers. I usually bet against them because I'd rather lose $$ and have them win, then endure the double agony of losing $$ AND watching them lose.
But FWIW, it means I usually lose betting against the Lakers because my pessimism biases my bets.
I just wanted to make sure that wasn't your experience. GL.
That said, I will be betting $300 on the TCU ml because the sting of losing is less when I bet on the other team. I'd rather us win and lose $300 any day.
You sound like me with the LA Lakers. I usually bet against them because I'd rather lose $$ and have them win, then endure the double agony of losing $$ AND watching them lose.
But FWIW, it means I usually lose betting against the Lakers because my pessimism biases my bets.
I just wanted to make sure that wasn't your experience. GL.
Tough game to call. I think one thing being surprisingly undersold on this game by the faithful is Tech's significant home field advantage which is one of the best in the country. The atmosphere for this game is going to be A&M like and TT-TCU is shaping up as a nice rivalry because there is a lot brewing between these two schools over which is better.
TCU brings a solid defense which will match up well against the dink and dunk Kingsbury will employ early. Tech's defense is improved this season and TCU's offense is not much to get excited about.
My head tells me TCU but my gut says Tech as I don't think there is a significant dropoff between the freshman and Doege.
But pass on the game and take the under. Both teams will not score 30 points in this game and probably neither does.
Tough game to call. I think one thing being surprisingly undersold on this game by the faithful is Tech's significant home field advantage which is one of the best in the country. The atmosphere for this game is going to be A&M like and TT-TCU is shaping up as a nice rivalry because there is a lot brewing between these two schools over which is better.
TCU brings a solid defense which will match up well against the dink and dunk Kingsbury will employ early. Tech's defense is improved this season and TCU's offense is not much to get excited about.
My head tells me TCU but my gut says Tech as I don't think there is a significant dropoff between the freshman and Doege.
But pass on the game and take the under. Both teams will not score 30 points in this game and probably neither does.
You sound like me with the LA Lakers. I usually bet against them because I'd rather lose $$ and have them win, then endure the double agony of losing $$ AND watching them lose.
But FWIW, it means I usually lose betting against the Lakers because my pessimism biases my bets.
I just wanted to make sure that wasn't your experience. GL.
Haha totally agree man... a Big 12 conference win for us is worth abut $300-500 depending on the opponent. If it is a game we should easily win, like an Iowa State or KU opponent, I will normally lay off. Most of the time when I lay off we win, and I won a ton of money last year when David Ash and Mack beat us in Lubbock, we always play awful against UT (minus 2002 and 2008) and they always bring their A game. They were +145 against us last year and I put a g on it because I just knew we would lose in my heart given how crappy of a coach Tubs was. Again, like I said earlier, I am praying to the football gods that we win tonight, and would be overjoyed losing the $300, but I sadly just think TCU's defense and Patterson will be too much for our walk on true freshman QB.
You sound like me with the LA Lakers. I usually bet against them because I'd rather lose $$ and have them win, then endure the double agony of losing $$ AND watching them lose.
But FWIW, it means I usually lose betting against the Lakers because my pessimism biases my bets.
I just wanted to make sure that wasn't your experience. GL.
Haha totally agree man... a Big 12 conference win for us is worth abut $300-500 depending on the opponent. If it is a game we should easily win, like an Iowa State or KU opponent, I will normally lay off. Most of the time when I lay off we win, and I won a ton of money last year when David Ash and Mack beat us in Lubbock, we always play awful against UT (minus 2002 and 2008) and they always bring their A game. They were +145 against us last year and I put a g on it because I just knew we would lose in my heart given how crappy of a coach Tubs was. Again, like I said earlier, I am praying to the football gods that we win tonight, and would be overjoyed losing the $300, but I sadly just think TCU's defense and Patterson will be too much for our walk on true freshman QB.
As a TCU alum I commend you in your write up and plays. BOL to you and your red raiders-- should be a helluva game
You too man, I love this new rivalry game and I think we will play many close games for years to come. Glad y'all are finally in the Big 12 (even though it kills our DFW recruiting advantage) and though I hope you lose tonight, I wish y'all the best of luck this season and hope as I do for us that the injury bug doesn't bite you as bad as last season.
As a TCU alum I commend you in your write up and plays. BOL to you and your red raiders-- should be a helluva game
You too man, I love this new rivalry game and I think we will play many close games for years to come. Glad y'all are finally in the Big 12 (even though it kills our DFW recruiting advantage) and though I hope you lose tonight, I wish y'all the best of luck this season and hope as I do for us that the injury bug doesn't bite you as bad as last season.
Tough game to call. I think one thing being surprisingly undersold on this game by the faithful is Tech's significant home field advantage which is one of the best in the country. The atmosphere for this game is going to be A&M like and TT-TCU is shaping up as a nice rivalry because there is a lot brewing between these two schools over which is better.
TCU brings a solid defense which will match up well against the dink and dunk Kingsbury will employ early. Tech's defense is improved this season and TCU's offense is not much to get excited about.
My head tells me TCU but my gut says Tech as I don't think there is a significant dropoff between the freshman and Doege.
But pass on the game and take the under. Both teams will not score 30 points in this game and probably neither does.
Agreed. I went to Tech from 2004 and graduated in 2008, which was probably the best 4 year stretch in Texas Tech revenue sports, and saw some crazy crazy home games during that time. We did have possibly one of the top home field advantages, especially with the place blacked out for a night game. That said, I think Tuberville lost a lot of the home field advantage we had built up under Leach, and the students lost a lot of faith in the program. Kliff seems to have us heading in the right direction, and when we had a new student attendance record against SFA last Saturday I knew that we would have a huge crowd of students tonight. TCU plays well on the road (or at least they did last year), and I hope we can keep it a game going in to the 4th quarter to keep the students loud and the crowd going crazy. If we can do this, then our home field advantage could win us the game late in the 4th. However if it is like I fear it will be, TCU will capitalize on some early turnovers and race out to an early lead, neutralize the crowd, and then it could get ugly given we are so young at QB and on the Oline.
Tough game to call. I think one thing being surprisingly undersold on this game by the faithful is Tech's significant home field advantage which is one of the best in the country. The atmosphere for this game is going to be A&M like and TT-TCU is shaping up as a nice rivalry because there is a lot brewing between these two schools over which is better.
TCU brings a solid defense which will match up well against the dink and dunk Kingsbury will employ early. Tech's defense is improved this season and TCU's offense is not much to get excited about.
My head tells me TCU but my gut says Tech as I don't think there is a significant dropoff between the freshman and Doege.
But pass on the game and take the under. Both teams will not score 30 points in this game and probably neither does.
Agreed. I went to Tech from 2004 and graduated in 2008, which was probably the best 4 year stretch in Texas Tech revenue sports, and saw some crazy crazy home games during that time. We did have possibly one of the top home field advantages, especially with the place blacked out for a night game. That said, I think Tuberville lost a lot of the home field advantage we had built up under Leach, and the students lost a lot of faith in the program. Kliff seems to have us heading in the right direction, and when we had a new student attendance record against SFA last Saturday I knew that we would have a huge crowd of students tonight. TCU plays well on the road (or at least they did last year), and I hope we can keep it a game going in to the 4th quarter to keep the students loud and the crowd going crazy. If we can do this, then our home field advantage could win us the game late in the 4th. However if it is like I fear it will be, TCU will capitalize on some early turnovers and race out to an early lead, neutralize the crowd, and then it could get ugly given we are so young at QB and on the Oline.
Agreed. I went to Tech from 2004 and graduated in 2008, which was probably the best 4 year stretch in Texas Tech revenue sports, and saw some crazy crazy home games during that time. We did have possibly one of the top home field advantages, especially with the place blacked out for a night game. That said, I think Tuberville lost a lot of the home field advantage we had built up under Leach, and the students lost a lot of faith in the program.
The Tech home field advantage dates back decades way before Leach. Lubbock is a tough place to play. The other team doesn't get at all excited about coming to Lubbock and Tech has a big psychological advantage. The Going Band plays that traditional music, the saddle tramp bells start clanging and the fans come out and the players feed off the atmosphere and sock them right between the eyes. Tubs can't kill it.
Agreed. I went to Tech from 2004 and graduated in 2008, which was probably the best 4 year stretch in Texas Tech revenue sports, and saw some crazy crazy home games during that time. We did have possibly one of the top home field advantages, especially with the place blacked out for a night game. That said, I think Tuberville lost a lot of the home field advantage we had built up under Leach, and the students lost a lot of faith in the program.
The Tech home field advantage dates back decades way before Leach. Lubbock is a tough place to play. The other team doesn't get at all excited about coming to Lubbock and Tech has a big psychological advantage. The Going Band plays that traditional music, the saddle tramp bells start clanging and the fans come out and the players feed off the atmosphere and sock them right between the eyes. Tubs can't kill it.
If we had more non-biased opinions on teams that people follow religiously like you sir, this world would be a better place, and we would make a lot more money. Most people can't think and feel opposite ways. I commend you.
If we had more non-biased opinions on teams that people follow religiously like you sir, this world would be a better place, and we would make a lot more money. Most people can't think and feel opposite ways. I commend you.
You aren't a true Tech fan if you're freaking betting against them! That's weak dude...hope you lose that $330
Dude it ruins my week if we lose and I can't watch anything sports related. If I bet against us and we lose, at least I make some money to help lessen the sting of defeat. You think I'll be rooting for my $300 over us winning? Hell no! I want us to demolish TCU, and as you said I sure do hope I lose that $300, Tech football is my life, I love them more than my wife!
You aren't a true Tech fan if you're freaking betting against them! That's weak dude...hope you lose that $330
Dude it ruins my week if we lose and I can't watch anything sports related. If I bet against us and we lose, at least I make some money to help lessen the sting of defeat. You think I'll be rooting for my $300 over us winning? Hell no! I want us to demolish TCU, and as you said I sure do hope I lose that $300, Tech football is my life, I love them more than my wife!
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