TD Week 14

No worries , I just had a little disposable income to invest     

TD  

TD , so far ,so good on the tail . I've got the Griz , and Idaho un 50 ' coupled with

 Bama moneyline + 175 and Texas in a 4 team parlay as part of my Georgia hedge.

Bama and Texas are already in . If it cashes it'll be a nice payout .     

TD  

You shorted your projected line of 37.5 on sdst, they won by 41

In all seriousness, great call there. Laying 29.5 with confidence. 

@undermysac

Fck'ing nailed it there.  Mercer offense shut out was mentioned as a definite possibility.  Knock on wood as I'm hoping to finish strong in these two late games, but its shaping up to be a really good day.  

@WISEGUY36

 Alright, it's official.  ..... never really a sweat, but I just love overtime being an Under bettor.  Nice win tonight!  

With all conference Futures graded, I'm at +7.05 units overall for Week 14.     

Tomorrow's announcement should be interesting.  I think my girlfriend Heather Dinich might have it right with those 4 in her article if the committee really made it a point this week to say "best four" and not "most deserving four".  Time will tell.  Just need matchups and a line offered.  

@TD21

 You absolutely crush FCS playoffs. Keep up the great capping 

@monkeebooger

   Thanks bud, these last two weeks have gone well.  Hopefully we can keep it up moving forward.

TD ,Thanks again bud, When they went to OT, fortunately I was capping some playoff possibilities

and wasn't watching the game.  I've been a Griz fan since the days a few of us on the forum  used

to get together to discuss  the FCS Championships . Big Vern , we miss you bud . To BV   

I wasn't aware of SIU and their defensive  stats before I tuned in to watch the game ... Impressive.

I'm very glad I hedged my Georgia futures plays. TD , thanks to you for the plays and I'll give thanks

to the Grace of God for getting us through an under bet in OT. 

Blessings and success , my friend     

I don't know why that happened  to my post. It would not let me edit it. Apologies to the forum. 

Aloha @WISEGUY36

You only have 5 quick minutes to edit your post after each submit, you’ll see the edit button bottom right.

Mac , thanks, but after I clicked submit , I saw the post and tried to go back

to edit, but there was no edit button appearing to use. I tried to go back a couple

of times immediately after I clicked submit , but the edit button would not

appear for some reason this time.

Maybe It's Covers way of telling me to go buy a new Computer.     

So, my National Championship Futures are much better now with Georgia out of the playoffs.  I had taken the old horseracing eliminate the favorite approach since the preseason.  I do have a ticket on Georgia, but meant to lower the amount of loss should they win it all. So, the only two teams with a true chance to make the playoffs that would be a net loser for Futures tickets are Georgia (lose 0.53u) and Michigan (lose 0.32u).  If Texas wins championship +1.64u, if Alabama wins Championship +0.74u, if Washington wins championship +1.29u.  Florida State was +1.42u as well.  Tickets on others too, but I added to the right teams early enough in the season to have value overall.  I'm in a great position here I think.  I could hedge slightly on Michigan for a free ride on all others, but I will probably let it ride.

Opening lines: FD flashed an Alabama +3 -110 for about 4 seconds that I'd like to have, but I missed it.

I've added Washington +4.5 -110 (DK) to establish a position there.  I kind of would like to see Alabama throttle Michigan.  Might be in the minority there from a fandom perspective.  Betting wise, since my futures need Alabama over Michigan I'm going to hold off on a side play for now, but I lean Alabama here.  Michigan team total under is something I might take a hard look at as well.  Too bad its not 24, seeing 23.5 to open.

Amazing work this week, as always! THank you again for all your time responding to my questions.

@MudPhud3

No problem.  I enjoyed it.  

For post #63, meant to say that UW +4.5 -110 is 0.5u.

Great minds think alike. I missed  + 2'  which opened here in LV . But I think Bama will beat 

Michigan so I bet Bama m/l  + 110 instead , before that price moved away from me.

Hopefully Bama will win over Michigan , but get physically beaten

up in the process. I think Washington matches up favorably with Texas. Should be a great game.

We're in  the action , Bud  

TD , Blessings and Good luck  

Well, I was going to try and remain on my best behavior with bowl matchups announced and refrain from playing much of anything until closer to the games since the modern day bowl games have become a guessing game of which players are in/out, where coaches will be, and which teams are motivated.  That said, when I see the same game booked at +14 -110 at one shop and +17.5 -110 at another shop, I've decided to establish a small position on one game so far.  And I'm looking at another to do the same.

Locked In:

Liberty +17.5 -110 (0.2u) (DK)

@WISEGUY36

   Yes sir, we are aligned.  I'll be keeping an eye on this game line, if it comes back at some point I may add to the Alabama position that I have overall.

Taking one more tonight to establish a position.  I'd love a 14.5, but I'm concerned the +14 available might not last once others list their openers.  Seeing one +14 and one +13.5, so taking this now as a starting point.

Bowl Games:

Locked In:

Added:  Florida State +14 -110 (0.75u)

Liberty +17.5 -110 (0.2u) (DK)

I like those three early plays. 

Alabama +3 would compell me to risk far too much of my bankroll. What do you think about the ML? +105 or thereabouts sounds like a good position to have, as I suspect that Bama will close as close to a full FG favorite, as much because of public perception than raw power ratings. 

@MudPhud3

 ML +105 sounds good to me.

TD , Love the FSU play , bud. I think we will see some two way line movement on a lot

of these matchups. Having the patience to wait on a number is sometimes tough to do,

and establishing a position on a play in case it moves away from us is the right thing to do.

I'm doing a similar thing on my Washington Over plays. To capture the lower boundary of

that play ( currently offered at 64 ) , I opted to play a 6 point Teaser as part of my position.

Washington   + 10 '  and Over 58. I figure that the line on the total is more likely to move

away from my target , so I've at least got a baseline number I'm comfortable  with.

TD  

TD , A ray of hope , I just saw a 14 '   offered here in Las Vegas  

TD , 

@WISEGUY36

Thanks for the heads up.  I checked here and I’m still 4 for 4 on books at +14.  And 2 others with no line offered at this time.  I’ll continue to monitor this.