TD Week 14

Solid

@TD21

 Just curious if you have seen what the latest news on SMU QB playing. I want to take SMU all day long but if their QB is out well thats another story.

@T3PeteDawg

 SMU QB Stone is OUT with a broken fibula.

@TD21

 Thanks for all you do 

@T3PeteDawg

@TheLorenaKid

I've been out again working on my local 7th grade basketball power ratings.....

LK, Thanks for filling in on that answer.

Better question to me is why is the line dropping this time around?  I'm seeing Tulane -3.5 -108.  Guess I should have waited to buy out.  Ha, who knew?

Somebody must know something about head coach Willie Fritz and his next stop,..... that's all I can think of / pure speculation.  But he definitely deserves to be considered at Power 5 schools.

21 

TD21, I have  SD St at -32.5 and Montana -17.5 - are these too high to show value for you?

Albany available at 7 -110 on Heritage.

GL this weekend. Thank you as always for your insights!

@MudPhud3

I'm going to nitpick the word "value" and say it's just ok as far as value goes.  It's about right for a fair line, BUT that doesn't mean it won't still win.  If I was forced to take a side at these current numbers, I'd still take both favorites.  That said, I think -17.5 is kind of a dead number.  It could move to -18 at all shops, but I'd probably wait until the morning and hold out as long as possible to see if a -17 pops.  I don't know how many shops you have access to but if 1 or more moves to -18, then at some point you maybe bite the bullet and take the best available if it looks like -17 isn't coming.

Here's some numbers just as food for thought:

What I call "baseline" PR#s make Montana -17.2 over Delaware when looking at the entire season as a whole.  But Montana has improved significantly the 2nd half of the season.  Even at my current #s (which improve them a little bit every week), they still have a + ATS margin in each of their last 4 games.  I also look at ATS margin vs. tiers (or "weight class") of opponents.  I have Delaware "ranked" #125 overall for all FBS/FCS teams.  Unfortunately Montana's tale of two seasons does not really offer good data against tiers because Montana vs. the #101-#150 tier includes a straight up loss at Northern Arizona where they are now (current #s) -28.8 points for ATS margin with the 14 point loss as a favorite.  Overall vs. that tier I have Montana as 1-2 ATS record with margins of -9.4 & -7.4 (1st is average of those three ATS margins, 2nd is median of the three separate ATS margins,.... Northern Arizona game drives up the negative average).  BUT, vs. a tougher tier of #51-100, they were the opposite at 1-1 ATS, but +11.4 for ATS margin.  I sort of toss out the tier stuff for Montana because the lines drawn are arbitrary (increments of 50 in this case, and they were better against tougher competition) and the recent ATS margins to me are more relevant in this case. 

Too many characters, here's the rest.

A similar review of Delaware shows that their last two games are 0-2 ATS and last 4 is 1-3 ATS, so they are not peaking at the right time and have had some recent turnover problems from their quarterback is my recollection (did not confirm as I type this).  For tier review, Montana is #60 overall for FBS/FCS (#2 FCS only) and Delaware against that tier has only one data point, but it was their recent loss in Week 12 to Villanova and they were -23.2 ATS margin in that game.  Similarly vs. the best tier / "weight class" they were -18.3 points for ATS margin vs. Penn State FWIW (Franklin is notorious for running it up on inferior teams, so take that extra comment with a grain of salt).  Delaware vs. the #101-#150 tier (worse teams than Montana) was -2.3 points on average for ATS margin (ATS record 0-1-1 (anything <1 point ATS margin I consider a push for the purposes of my reviews)).  So top to bottom looking at all tiers, Delaware beat up on teams ranked #151 or worse they were 5-2 ATS using current PR #s and vs. the top 4 opponents they were 0-3-1 ATS.  Delaware is out of their "weight class" here vs. Montana even compared to the baseline #s and they are also not peaking at the right time.  I know nothing about injury info, if somebody key was out the last few weeks and is returning or whatever, but all things being equal to the last few weeks, it does not look good for them in terms of recent play, and also for full season play vs. "comps" (similarly rated teams to who they are playing this week).  And Missoula at night can be quite a home field advantage.  I'd have to check, but as a side note, for future reference, the Big Sky (especially in conference games vs. each other) has a home field advantage statistically that is the highest of any league in the country for both FBS & FCS leagues.  Must be the travel distance with minimal to no short road trips for many teams.  Maybe something to keep an eye on moving forward when west coast teams in the Big Ten have to travel 3,000 miles or vice versa for Rutgers or Maryland heading to the west coast.  Anyway, digressing here.

I'll get back to South Dakota State / Mercer in a separate response.  Going to hit submit for now on what I have here.  

Incredibly intelligent and helpful posts, TD. I didn't recognize the extra home field advantage in the Big Sky. I'll wait until tomorrow and hope to snag a 17. Thank you!

Well d@mn, I got so engrossed in my FCS response that I didn't watch to see what happened in the CUSA title game.  I've got two TVs on in front of me, but only volume on for the Pac 12 game.    Missed the 1st half being out but monitoring the score it looked most of the game like +14 was a winner.  Fcking pushed at a great number.  It happens.  Anybody watch this game care to tell me how it looked?  From the box score it looks like NMSU was the right side and Pavia got hurt and the backup QB had them in the red zone down 42-35 in the 4th but threw a pick in the end zone.  What a bummer, they were right there.  Glad I pushed at +14.  Sorry to anyone who took +11ish as I said I still liked NMSU at that number.

P12 title game shaping up to be a good finish I hope.  UW driving as I type this over the commercial break.

@MudPhud3

Alright, Mercer at South Dakota State.  I make the line -37.5 based on full season results.  However, I was off significantly on the Gardner-Webb at Mercer line and Mercer won; off about 4 to 4.5 points from the market, so I guess call this week's fair line closer to -33 / -33.5.  I have Mercer as 2-0 ATS in their last 2 games (+6.2 ATS margin) and 3-1 ATS in their last 4 (+4.3 ATS average margin).  But 1-3-1 ATS in their 5 midseason games prior to the last 4 with ATS margin average -3.3.  For tiers there are really no comparable teams to what they are going to see.  I'd say Ole Miss is the closest.  South Dakota State is rated #27/#28ish overall for all of FBS/FCS.  Ole Miss is about #20.  Mercer did not play any other teams in any of the following tiers:  #21-#50, #51-#100, and #101-#150.  All other opponents besides Ole Miss are currently rated #153 or worse.  That #153 team was Furman and Mercer getting 9.1 points as the line (current numbers), they lost to Furman 38-14.  The is a big step up in class for Mercer.  South Dakota State doesn't have the overall team speed as an SEC team obviously, but the numbers are what they are for 12 games of results and unfortunately this is the only somewhat comparable opponent from a ratings perspective at least.  I actually had last year's 2022 Mercer team that just missed the playoffs rated quite a bit higher than this 2023 team.  Not applicable since it's not this year's team but Mercer LY was also worse than baseline #s vs. their best opponents.  I don't think this year's Mercer team is very good on offense.  I can't see them scoring much more than 7 points vs. South Dakota State.  Maybe 10 points max; any more than that would be surprising to me.  And a shutout wouldn't be all that shocking either.

Mercer is rated #185 (call it a little bit higher since I'm off in the market).  South Dakota State played zero games vs. teams in the #151-#200 range.  And vs. #101-#150 tier they were 2-3 ATS with margins +1.8 (avg) and -1.1 (median), so nearly 2-2-1 ATS for my methodology.  South Dakota State on cruise control in their regular season finale was -10.5 for ATS margin, but they were up 21-3 at half and played the 2nd half at a 14-14 score going into the playoff bye week.  The 3 games prior to that regular season finale they were 3-0 ATS and +13.1 for ATS margin.  And all 3 of those games were vs. MVFC playoff teams (USD, NDSU, YSU).

I think South Dakota State will get up big early and if any of these mainstream US books (DK, etc.) offer in-game lines, I think its above -35.5 during the game.  I thought I saw that DK did offer in-game last week, but I was in and out and didn't have any action so I can't confirm (memory is failing me, sorry).  Also watch the in-game total if available.  Mercer is, relatively speaking, a better defensive team than they are on offense.  I still think the difference in talent is too much and South Dakota State will still get their points.  At some point I think South Dakota State takes their foot off the gas and an in-game Under if you can find it is a really solid play if you can time it right.  Last thing is weather.  Outside in Brookings with a wind chill of around 30 degrees at kickoff has to favor South Dakota State a little vs. a team coming from 60+ degrees in Macon, Georgia.

@MudPhud3

 4 of 6 shops that I check out have a line for the Montana game.

I see these currently:

-17 -125

-17.5 -105

-17.5 -110

-19.5 -110

I don't know if that last one is a sign of things to come.  Same with the heavy juice on the 1st line.  That book will move the number once they hit -125, so -17.5 or more is coming there I believe.  Just be aware of this in terms of timing to establish a starting position and then maybe add more later to an original play locked in.

Good luck.

PS - seeing Albany -6.5 -110 at one shop.  I have enough invested already there for what I am comfortable with, so I am staying put.  Should have been more patient I guess in waiting for the -6.5.

TD , I decided not to hedge my Washington Conference futures and let them ride.

I wound up turning off the TV in the third Quarter.  

What a game. On to tomorrow.

Good Luck Saturday , Bud  

TD  

@MudPhud3

Delaware QB O’Connor is the starter.

Minicucci that has been playing and turning the ball over the last couple games is 3rd string.  2nd string QB is OFY.

It is tough to get any info at all on whether or not O’Connor will return for this game.

Keep that in mind if in-game is offered.

@WISEGUY36

Congrats on the win with UW.  In hindsight I wish I had put a little more on that play.  I had a good read on that game going down to the wire.  The UW straight up win is a nice surprise as it really helps me with National Championship Futures and having the best leverage with several tickets on several teams for different amounts.

Enjoy the games today and good luck if you have any plays!  

Thanks TD , Blessings and Good Luck today   

I was one of those with NMST at +11.5. I even got -105 on it. NMST was clearly the right side - their defense was porous as expected, but the offense was moving the ball at will with Pavia making plays through the air and on the ground. Even after he went out, the backup played fine and made a couple difficult throws, but the interception in the end zone and then a slight bobble as the receiver went down out of bounds on a 4th down play that would have gotten them inside the 10 on the next drive did them in. Frustrating loss.

DK does have live lines for FCS.  Just an FYI to some of you guys.

MAC Future hedge only.... just took Toledo ML -104 (0.1u).  Will see if they can hold them to a FD here.

Heritage does too. I wish I could access FD and DK for some of the dumbed down public lines...

@MudPhud3

They move fast, so really only the early birds get the softer lines, but I'm typically one of them that is prepared and ready to fire.

Good luck today.

@TD21

 TD , I tailed you on a couple of FCS plays today. Looking forward to  see how it goes.

Good Luck  , bud  

To be clear on post #45, I still need Miami (OH) to win and/or cover.  Just adjusting my overall position slightly.  

@WISEGUY36

Oh boy, hope it works out for you on those couple.  Good luck to us!