Random Weekly Thoughts: Illinois keeps proving me wrong. Defense is better than expected, which is odd. Thought Indiana would hang, but just too many turnovers. I would venture to believe that Central Michigan has thrown in the towel. They have the talent to hang around with the likes of a Northern Illinois, but they just can’t keep shooting themselves in the foot. Northern is clearly the class of the MAC this year, Jerry Kill has done a wonderful job with the program. Temple has turned some heads on the offensive side of the ball, but clearly the defense is not what it used to be. As predicted, UNC got blown outta the water. The injury to their TE is one of those that impacts the team not only statistically, but mentally as well and it showed. Utah State never had a chance. Other than that, some other brief quick hitters, Jim Tressell’s record of covering and blowing teams out after a loss is remarkable. Northwestern had a shot, had a cover, and ended up with nothing. Have to be painful to take part in that game. I still don’t view Michigan State as a top 10 squad. Dissappointing loss for SMU to lose to Houston, win that game and they’re in the driver’s seat. Four teams who can show up at any time but can also lay a duck at any time: Kent State, Bowling Green, Western Michigan, and Akron. Would value Kent State a lot more with Eugene Jarvis who was chasing a record and prepared to come back, and supposedly the coach don’t want him back. Uconn went to Endres for a reason, now they’re in trouble. The Wisconsin/Iowa game has my vote for game of the year thus far. LSU/Auburn is top five. East Carolina’s up-tempo offense is A LOT better than what people had projected, and they’re young. Western Kentucky in the win column…on the road…wow. Kentucky continues to score points at will, yet not always win. Missouri’s defense is really, really, really good and quick. This Mizzou team reminds me of the teams that Miami FL had a few years back, exact clone.
3* 1-0, +3.00…2*1-1, -0.10…1*0-3, -3.20…0.5*0-2, -1.00
Year: -1.30
As for this week, it’s hard for me not to like Oregon State. I had them projected four spots higher than Cal going into the year and nothing has really changed in reference to those beliefs, if anything, they’ve gotten better, aside from the fact of losing James Rodgers, but that was more of a distraction two weeks ago than the rest of the season. At 4-3, Cal has to be feeling pretty good about itself, however all three of those losses have come on the road. Home wins: Cal 189, Opponent 34. Away Losses, Opponent 110, Cal 54. They have simply found no rhythm on the road and if you look at their Pac-10 road games, they didn’t score a touchdown at Arizona, they were shutout for a half at USC, before scoring a few late in garbage time. Oregon State on the other hand, well, they’ve played the toughest schedule in the country and come out of it 3-3, and it could’ve been better than 3-3. Oregon State’s defense has been far from stellar, coming in at 119 out of 120 which gives us value. However, as stated, it’s b/c of the schedule. Their six opponents this year have been:
TCU, 480 YPG
Louisville, 442 YPG
Boise State, 524 YPG
Arizona State, 424 YPG
Arizona, 435 YPG
Washington, 394 YPG
Cal comes in at 377 YPG, making this the easiest offense Oregon State will face this year, also noting the fact that they have been held more than 100 YPG below their average on the road in Pac-10 games. Yah, they put up 500+ at Nevada, but who hasn’t. Adding fuel to the fire, another bye week. Defense gets criticized, Defense plays weakest opponent of the year thus far, Defense plays horrendous road offense, Defense has two weeks to prepare. I like the angle. Another thing to ponder is the listed total for the game which is hovering 52-53 points anywhere you look. Oregon State’s gone over every game this year, and the line at 52 isn’t screaming shootout. This defense is better than what it’s ranked. USC was in the same boat prior to playing Cal (37 to Stanford, 32 to Washington, 21 to Minnesota, 36 to Hawaii). It’s gotta be nice having two weeks of preparation for one of the few immobile quarterbacks you’ll play all year.
One more note, before the bye, Washington beat OSU by a single point. Jacquizz Rodgers and Coach Riley both mentioned killer instinct. You don’t lose a close game, practice for two weeks while hearing every single day about finishing a play and finishing the game with a killer instinct and not come ready to play, at home, off a bye, against your easiest opponent this year who is an awful road squad, with a point to prove about your defense…
3* Oregon State -2.5
Other shots in the dark to come later, liking a few other biggies as well…
GL