nostradamus week 4

the vandals?!?

Opposite two   on none

VB even lost last week... 4-2 record though. Looks like a pass this week.

Good luck  

gl nos

booz

all - appreciate the inputs, GL

chino - was leaning UNC if catching FG+ so probably will pass, SC probably comes down to FG either way so possibly some value there, GL

BP - opposite...it does happen once in awhile I guess, BOL buddy

cal - yep been some strange things happening in bunches, eventually it may calm down, GL CB

adding 0.25u to SD St and Baylor

TCU 45 SMU 13 - improved SMU defense not likely to contain horned frogs, last couple matchups 25+, not much of a roadtrip across town for players or fans, TCU pass defense key matchup against ponies, TCU not likely to want poor win on national TV with BCS hopes on the line. Rout.

Alabama 34 Arkansas 17 - fairly short price for much better team and both plenty motivated, Mallett 12-35 in LY meeting and no running game to keep tide defense honest, Saban probably saving a couple cards for defense, Bama 12-4 as road favorite since 07

Tennessee 34 UAB 13 - Vols won here 35-3 in 08 with an equally or probably worse team, even with OL banged up Poole and Co should have some yardage against UAB run defense (5.4ypc) and Simms improving weekly and WRs getting healthier, possible letdown after huge UAB comeback win

Troy 41 Ark St 20 - Troy defense is pretty generous however doubt Ark St banged up at WR can match scores against Troy offense that should have success against ASU defense, young QB Robinson is improving

Georgia 24 Miss St 17 - both need this after 0-2 SEC start, feeling UGA has the better athletes and even (after only a couple starts) a better QB with MSU throwing 5 ints last week and better RBs

USC 48 Wash St 17 - hard to take these rat bastards again, however feel the matchup is going to favor USC running game and defense showing some improvement meaning backdoor cover is probably a lock, conference opener might have SC ready to play for a couple quarters

San Diego St 37 Utah St 20 - SDS showing pretty good balance with running game and should score enough, USU has shown good backdoor capability lately, aggies not winning SU much on the road (1-11) and suffering a few injuries so short number looks pretty good

Baylor 34 Rice 17 - like Bears chances to rebound with better QB and overall size, Owls not showing much on offense and Baylor finding both sides of the ball much easier than last week against TCU, Bears not the best road team however fairly short trip

Ole Miss 30 Fresno St 20 - Fresno suffering some injuries at WR and couple other spots, not feeling Old Mrs is really that bad since Vandy always plays well as road dog, should be ready after losing first two at home, although FSU is good road dog 8-3 ATS lately this seems like a long trip and not their best surface

Army 30 Duke 28 - blue devils did not really contain Army option last year (266 rush yds) and now missing a couple graduated players not likely to improve on that, Army pass defense and experience necessary to slow Duke passing attack allowing over 200 yds a couple times LY, key injury pending to RB Mealy (questionable) could hurt chances although couple young players looked pretty good filling in after 1H last week

BYU 38 Nevada 34 - play against typical overreaction to how bad BYU is and how good Nevada is, wolfpack still not a great record in this spot and pass defense should give up some yards to Heap now with Nelson out, tough to imagine Nevada being at peak after likely biggest win in a long time

looking at a couple totals later in the week

GL this week Nostradamus.  Like Central Florida +7 myself & GA +1

Good Luck this week Nos. Those plays look pretty strong across the board.

Quote Originally Posted by 222bad:

Nos.  Just bet the Hou / Tulane game under 60.  What's your take.  #3 QB and Tulane to boot.  Don't play a lot of totals, but think this looks good.  Can Hou gash them for 40  or 50 with their third string QB?  Cant see Tulane reaching 17 points, and more than likely 10.  Hope this isn't one of those too good to be true as I bet 2 units on the game.  BOL this week and thoughts on the play appreciated.                                                                                                                                                                                                     

Both defenses are atrocious. I've heard only good things about this Houston QB and how much "potential" he has. Houston is like Texas Tech...you find the right QB for the system, and it starts humming...60 does sound like quite a total to get to though. As bad as Houston's defense is, Tulane's offense has to help out a lot to reach that mark.

all - BOL 

gold - frosh QB not so great yet with just one TD pass 

222 - no real lean there, could still see UH getting 38-41 with Broadway probably being decent and good running, so depends if Tulane gets 20+, hope you hit though GL

adding

Tulsa -20

UCF-Kansas St under 45 (0.75u)

Temple-Penn St under 44 (hook) (0.75u)

others - FIU-MD under 46.5 (0.5u), Alabama -0.5/UGA +7.5 teaser (0.3u)

Tulsa 55 Central Ark 27 - expecting Tulsa to give decent effort off getting hammered by OSU, won here 62-34 couple yrs ago, UCA played fairly even against Murray St hopefully not likely to take full advantage of shaky defense

updated week 4

TCU -17 (hook) (large) (2.5u)

Alabama -6.5 (large) (2.5u)

Tennessee -13 (large) (2u)

Troy -12 (large) (2u)

USC -24 (1.5u)

Georgia +2 (1.5u)

San Diego St -7 (1.25u)

Ole Miss -2

Baylor -8 (1.25u) (0.25 @ 7)

Army +7 (0.75u)

BYU +4 (hook) (0.75u)

Tulsa -20

UCF-Kansas St under 45 (0.75u)

Temple-Penn St under 44 (hook) (0.75u)

others - FIU-MD u46.5 (0.5u), Bama -0.5/UGA +7.5 teaser (0.3u)