NCAA Week 14 Ponderings

Some thoughts and observations on the last week of the regular season. Home teams in CAPS

Tuesday, Nov. 25th

Western Michigan -9' EASTERN MICHIGAN - The Broncos hit the road again, off a 35-19 win at NIU. A win here puts them in the MAC title game. The Emus are gonna be home for the holidays, but are still playing hard and have a three day rest advantage. WMU has won and covered the last two meetings.

Thursday, Nov. 27 - HAPPY THANKSGIVING!!!

MEMPHIS -5' Navy - Both teams had last week off. The Middies rebounded from road losses at North Texas and Notre Dame with a huge upset win over USF two weeks ago. They need a win here to have any shot at the AAC title. Granted it's a slim shot, as they need either North Texas or Tulane to lose at home in games where both teams are huge favorites over Temple and Charlotte, respectively. Three weeks ago Memphis was in the driver's seat for a conference title and CFP berth, but back to back losses to Tulane and ECU have relegated them to a mere bowl game. Hard to see them being too motivated here.

More to come. 

Wow! WMU is up to -10 now! Quite a jump from the opener of -5'. Leaning EMU but not playing it. 

Cautionary note on the Thanksgiving game. It's Senior Day in Memphis, and under Ryan Silverfield the Tigers are 4-1 SU and 3-1 ATS in their last home game of the season. Also, Memphis may be out for revenge from last season's 56-44 loss in Annapolis. That's enough to keep me from playing it, but I'm still leaning Navy.

Also just saw that North Texas HC Eric Morris is taking his talents to Oklahoma St. although he'll stay with the Mean Green thru the rest of the season.

Black Friday, Nov. 28th

Ohio -7 BUFFALO - The Bobcats have won the last three meetings, and a win here keeps them in the running for the MAC title game. The Bulls need a win for bowl eligibility. Ohio is 0-3 ATS on the conference road, but Buffalo is 0-5 ATS at home this year.

Utah -10' KANSAS - The Utes have no shot at a Big 12 title, but their slim CFP hopes are alive with a win here, depending on what happens elsewhere. Other than losses to Texas Tech and BYU, the Utes have averaged 49 points a game vs. the rest of the Big 12, and 51 in their last four games! But defensively they've been leaking oil the last two games, allowing 75 combined points in wins over Baylor and Kansas St. and they gave up a whopping 472 yards rushing against the Wildcats last week! The Jayhawks have lost four of their last five, and are still seeking that elusive sixth win to go bowling. 

Iowa -6 NEBRASKA - The Cornhuskers are looking to avenge a pair of 13-10 losses the past two years. Close games are the general rule here. The last seven meetings have been decided by seven points or less. Both teams are already bowl eligible.

Ole Miss -7 MISSISSIPPI ST. - The dog is 5-0-1 ATS in the last six meetings. A win by the Rebels locks them into the CFP, but how will the Lane Kiffin should-he-stay-or-should-he-go-now distraction affect the team? The Bulldogs have face planted since beating Arkansas for their first SEC win since 2023. Do they have any bite left for their biggest rival?

Georgia -14 Georgia Tech - Technically this is a neutral site game being played at Mercedes Benz Stadium in Atlanta. I'm already on Georgia in this one.

NORTH TEXAS -20' Temple - The Owls need a win to go bowling but it'll be hard to come by here. The Mean Green have been especially mean lately, going 5-0 SU, ATS and ITS (in the stats) in their last five games, and with a win here will be playing for the AAC title.

San Diego St. -1' NEW MEXICO - If the Aztecs win they'll play for the MWC title. But if the Lobos win we're gonna some chaos in the MWC, and who doesn't love a little chaos? HC Jason Eck has done a fantastic job in Albuquerque. New Mexico is unbeaten at home, and has won five straight games. This won't be a cakewalk for the Aztecs and the line reflects that.

Boise St. -3 UTAH ST. - The Broncos broke out of an offensive slump with a 49-21 rout of hapless Colorado St. They need a win here to have a shot at playing for another MWC championship. I'm still not sure what they have in backup QB Max Cutforth, but I DO know Boise will have their hands full here. Under HC Bronco Mendenhall the Aggies are 5-0 SU at home and 4-0 ATS. They're already bowl eligible and a win would give them a winning record. In their last two games they lost in OT at UNLV (they would've won if they had a kicker), and won at Fresno St. It's Senior Day in Logan, and as much as I'd like to see my Broncos win, my gut's telling me Utah St. is the play.

Texas A&M -2' TEXAS - Win or lose the Aggies are in the CFP. The 'Horns vaunted defense is allowing 406.4 yards per game vs. the SEC. But a key stat may come into play here. Texas is +10 in net turnovers while A&M is -5. 

Arizona -1' ARIZONA ST. - These teams have traded blowout wins on the road the last two years, with the Sun Devils winning 49-7 a year ago. ASU has the slimmest of of chances to play in the Big 12 title game with a win. Tough call.

Saturday early games

Toledo -10' CENTRAL MICHIGAN - The Rockets have won and covered the last three meetings. The winner of this one keeps their MAC title hopes alive. Toledo is no bargain on the road though, going 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS, including 1-3 as road chalk. The Chips won't be an easy out. They're 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS in MAC play, including 3-0 at home. Weather could be a factor here.

Ohio St. -9' MICHIGAN - Weird game. On one hand the Buckeyes would like to beat the crap out of the Wolverines after losing the last four meetings. A win would put Ohio St. in the Big Ten title game and knock Michigan out of CFP contention. On the other hand, even if the Buckeyes lose they're a lock to play in the CFP, even if they miss out on the BIG Ten title game. In other words, Michigan needs this game far more than Ohio St. does. This is another game where weather could be a factor. Tough call.

LOUISVILLE -3 Kentucky - The Cardinals snapped a five game series losing streak with a 41-14 rout in Lexington last year. But the Wildcats have won the last four meetings in Louisville and need to win this one to go bowling. The 'Cats had won three straight games until last week's blowout loss at Vanderbilt. Louisville has been in a free fall since their 7-1 start, losing their last three both SU and ATS, and they have a ton of injuries. Leaning Kentucky in this one.

Miami FL -7 PITTSBURGH - This is the second straight road trip for the Hurricanes, off a 34-17 win at Virginia Tech. The 'Canes have won three straight since losing at SMU, and QB Carson Beck has thrown eight TD passes and no picks during that stretch. But over their last six games they're just 2-4 ATS, and with temperatures supposed to be in the 30s and snow a possibility, Pittsburgh could have a distinct advantage here. The Panthers rebounded from their blowout loss to Notre Dame with a resounding win at Georgia Tech. Since frosh QB Mason Heintschel took over behind center, Pitt has gone 6-0 SU, ATS and ITS vs ACC foes. Both teams have postseason hopes with a win, but I have a feeling Beck could throw up a clunker here in adverse weather conditions.

BAYLOR -2' Houston - The Bears need this one to reach a bowl game, but Houston is 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS on the road this year, and Baylor has lost four of their last five, AND is 1-7 ATS vs. the Big 12. 

Texas Tech -23' WEST VIRGINIA 

BYU -17' Ucf - If the Cougars and Red Raiders both win, which seems like a slam dunk, they'll meet again in the Big 12 title game. UCF needs a win for bowl eligibility, but they look overmatched here.

Georgia is now up to -16'! Glad I bet it early.

Saturday afternoon games

Wku -2' JACKSONVILLE ST. - Second straight roadie for the Hilltoppers, off a near upset at LSU. This is a rematch of last year's C-USA title game, won by the Gamecocks in a 52-12 rout. The winner will play in THIS years title game.

DUKE -1' Wake Forest - The Demon Deacons have lost the last three meetings but look like the better team here. They've won six of their last seven and covered seven of their last eight (6-2 ITS). Both teams are bowl eligible, but Duke has the slimmest of hopes to play for an ACC title.

OKLAHOMA -10' Lsu - The Bayou Bengals won last year's meeting, 37-17, but now they're a team in transition with an interim coach and a backup QB playing in place of injured Garrett Nussmeier. They're on a 0-5 ATS slide. If the Sooners win they're in the CFP, but because of an inconsistent offense every game's a struggle. They've been outstatted in five of their last six games.

Kennesaw St. -1' LIBERTY - If the Owls win they'll play the winner of the WKU-Jax St. game for the C-USA title. They've won eight of their last nine and have gone 6-2 ATS. The Flames have "flamed" out, losers of their last three both SU and ATS, including overtime losses in their last two, to fall out of bowl contention. It's hard to see them being too motivated here.

TENNESSEE -2' Vanderbilt - The Commodores are on the fringe of the CFP and are looking to end a six game series losing streak. They're 12-3 ATS as a dog in their last 15 tries, including 9-1 ATS on the road. QB Diego Pavia is a Heisman frontrunner, completing 71.6% of his passes for 2924 yards, 26 TDs and just six interceptions. He's also rushed for 661 yards (5.0 YPR) and eight more scores. The Vols are 0-3 against top 25 teams and, except for their 31-11 win at Florida, they're allowing 35.5 points a game vs. SEC competition. For me it's Vandy or nobody in this one.

Wisconsin -2' MINNESOTA - The road team has won their last three, but the Badgers are winless on the road this year (0-4), while the Golden Gophers are undefeated at home (6-0). Soooooo, Wisconsin is favored here because .........???

SOUTHERN MISS -6' Troy - The Trojans have won and covered the last four meetings, and the winner here will face JMU for the Sun Belt title. Troy is a deceiving 5-2 SU and ATS in conference play, given that they've been outstatted in six of those contests. The Golden Eagles have dropped their last two, and picked a bad time to go into a slump. 

Oregon -7 WASHINGTON - The Ducks won last year's meeting in a 49-21 rout in Eugene, and the Huskies would like to turn the tables on their arch rival. Oregon has won a FBS best 11 straight true road games and are a CFP lock with a win. But UW has won 25 of its' last 26 in Husky Stadium, losing to Ohio St. earlier this year. They could be a tough out here as a home dog.

Evening games

VIRGINIA -7' Virginia Tech - This line seems a mite short, but the Hokies have lost just two games in this series this century, and have won the last four meetings! If the Cavaliers win this time they'll play in the ACC title game and exercise a ton of demons.

Alabama -5' AUBURN - HUGE stakes in this edition of the Iron Bowl. A win puts the Crimson Tide in the SEC title game against Georgia, and a CFP berth. A loss will knock them out of the SEC championship and MAY knock them out of the CFP with three losses. Bama has looked beatable on the road this year. They're 3-1 SU but just 1-2-1 ATS, including 0-2-1 as road chalk. Auburn needs a win to go bowling, and they've been tough as a home dog this year. They got robbed against Georgia by some of the worst officiating I've seen all year, and took Mizzou to double OT. If the zebras call a clean game this one could go down to the wire, but that's asking a lot.

Smu -13' CALIFORNIA - The Mustangs have lost just one conference game since joining the ACC a year ago, and a win here puts them back in the title game. The Golden Bears will play their finale with an interim coach, and MAY rise up here, but I'm not betting on it.