LONGHORNHOOSIER, COLLEGE FOOTBALL, WEEK 1, 2019

Its that time of year... College Football Season!   The Best Time of Year!   I believe that I finished with about a 58% ATS win % in 2018, though I will welcome my detractors who have a lot of time on their hands to validate that % or not...;)

Let's get it in 2019...Each week, I will post picks with lines I booked at Heritage at the time of the bet...I will follow with predicted scores...Finally, I will provide a brief narrative rationale for the picks...

Week 1 - Picks - Listed in order of confidence - highest at the top

South Carolina -7.5 over North Carolina - at Charlotte, North Carolina

@Rutgers -15.5 over Massachusetts

Georgia -21 over @Vanderbilt

Syracuse -17.5 over @Liberty

Alabama -34.5 over Duke - at Atlanta, Georgia

Again, predicted scores and rationale to follow...Heading to Paris with my wife on Tuesday, August 20 2019 for 10 days to celebrate my 10th wedding anniversary...In addition, plan to take day trips to Versailles, Normandy Coast, and perhaps Burgundy wine region...Please post any constructive comments on my picks below, even if critical...These bets are set, but it will help me with my process for week 2 and beyond...Hook em Horns!    Good Luck this season!   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Good Luck This Season , LH      

Best of luck LH

I might lean to Georgia a bit here but that is the only play I would consider making at this time.

Rutgers as DD Favorite is more than my stomach can take right  now.

Alabama has been blowing teams out now for several years in the televised openers but we all know how Saban lets up on non conference action (later in the year typically).  Just seems like there are better plays for my approach.

My simulations make the Syracuse / Liberty match up much closer, around 10 points.   Talent gap is significant however.

 

 

To the forum - I would appreciate feedback on the South Carolina pick...I will write a narrative later.    There has not been much mention of this pick so far on covers.    Is it because of the 28 to 0 beat down by UVA in the bowl?    Is it because Mack Brown is going to turn a crappy 2 win team into an SEC beater in week 1 with his new true freshman QB?    Will I be a sage with regard to this pick, or a chump?   

It is going to be boil down to if the very good veteran defensive of South Carolina can contain a veteran loaded offense of North Carolina, and how the QB for NC is going to perform under the guidance of a new offensive coordinator. If he can play a good game without turning the ball over, NC has a good shot to cover this game. 

What I think will happen is South Carolina is going to run the ball down the throats of a poor North Carolina defensive which according to my notes gave up over 200 yards per game rushing last year, and have done little to address the problem with incoming freshman, transfers and redshirts. South Carolina will control the clock and will win and cover the 7.5 spread. I have it as a strong play. Take it to the pay window. I am actually playing Alabama and Rutgers who you also have in your lineup, and strongly considering the Gamecocks, when I do my final analysis as I do not like playing alot of plays. I would prefer to play 5 strong plays to playing 10 with good possibilities, because of the amounts of my wagers.  

Loaded NC Offense? 

They are starting a true fresh at QB and don’t have 1 receiver returning with 300+ yards last year. 

 

Not saying they will or won’t perform well but nothing that they showed us last year tells us this offense is “loaded” 

The running backs and wide receivers for NC are very talented group. 

 

https://keepingitheel.com/2019/08/16/unc-football-preview-wide-receiver/

 

https://keepingitheel.com/2019/08/14/2019-unc-football-preview-running-back/

 

This suks that we cannot provide links any longer from forums we gather information from. Come on Covers .....

Thanks Urban and a1!   

Urban - what are you thoughts on Georgia and Syracuse?    

i do like the syracuse bet and just add over 66 for the parlay good luck this season

Thanks Shakey!   GL to you as well!    

 

Who's with me on Georgia?   :)

BOL on the season LHH! Enjoy your trip

 

They'll do really well on that BYE week...

 

Here is my write up on UGA: https://www.covers.com/forum/ViewThread/103364758/georgia--20-vanderbilt

 

I try to avoid betting on UGA because my heart can get in the way of it but I was a little surprised by this line as well. I really thought it would have moved to like -23.5 to entice some action on the Vandy side.

 

Georgia has beaten the Dores by 28 and 31 respectively the last 2 years. By all indications, this is Kirby's best roster yet and Vanderbilt will now be without Kyle Shurmur for the first time in a long time. Vandy also loses their top 5 tacklers from a year ago. Georgia with the best OL in the country should score at will even without proven WR's. Vandy does have bright spots in their RB and a future 1st rounder TE but I don't see how they keep it within 3 scores here. I grabbed the line at -20.5 but would play it up to -23.5. If it crosses over -24, I would maybe just look at the Over.

I think the line by Georgia reflects 1) on road, 2 first SEC game, 3) Ball St Tr QB Riley Neal is touted as the 11th best QB NFL prospect...

For me, I like Georgia, but its just as much of a fade of the Vandy D...Sure, Georgia has young WR's, but they are extremely talented and when you have a top 3 NFL QB prospect throwing to them, in Fromm, I think they will be able to run their routes and beat Vandy DB's.  Finally, that Vandy D line is a submarginal SEC DLine...Those Georgia monsters should be able to open gaping holes for Swift or whomever is toting the rock...Finally, Georgia's disinterested D looked suspect against my Longhorns in the Sugar Bowl.  They thought they should be in the CFP over N Dame (and probably should have been).    Plus, their 2019 NFL draft prospects were probably trying to avoid injury...

I think it will take Vandy QB Riley Neal a few games to get adjusted to SEC speed.  I think the DLine for UGA will have a chip on its shoulders for a submarginal 2018 by its standards, and get after Neal.    Sure, Vandy has the so called Big 3, who got a lot of stats against OOC and weaker SEC teams last season.     Plus no lookahead for UGA in that they have FCS Murray State in week 2 at home where they know they will get their backups plenty of reps...then after that Ark St, which should be another chance to refine their O in the first half and get some reps for the backups in the 2nd half, prior to Week 4 N Dame...

 

 

Took a long look at Georgia/Vanderbilt today, and it will be one of my plays. The offensive line of Georgia is going to have its way with the defensive front of Vandy, and the run game of Georgia is going to have a field day. The defensive of the Bulldogs is also very strong, and will create turnovers, especially if Vandy has to throw the ball, as they do not even have a clear cut starting QB. If Vandy scores more than 10 points I would be surprised. I am thinking a 38 to 10 type of game.