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Games Im on Week 3 - Sept 17 - Sept 19.....

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Posted: #26
BOL Vans
 
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Posted: #27
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

Is there anything other than the published injury report that you know about?

Frazer will not play... that is definite... but have also heard that the 2nd stringer will most likely be out for the game as well, leaving UConn with a true freshman that they were thinking of redshirting when the season started...

from what i know, Frazer is dreadful, so this could be a really good thing, since just about anything would be an improvement... or a really bad thing, since the kid apparently couldn't beat out either of the first two guys in spring camp...

also, Baylor's defense is much improved... but we'll see if it pans out...

GL!

 
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Posted: #28
 Van
 
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Posted: #29
With ya on Arizona and UConn but wondering your thoughts on Ball St. I think Army will be able to run the ball at will against the Ball St. defense.
 
 
 
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Posted: #30
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

10.5 way too much here.... I think 6.5 is a fair number.

Baylor is a sexy team this year, and is getting too much respect too soon - and it is reflected in this line.  This is a team that gave up 30+ points a game last year with regularity, I have no reason to believe their defense is suddenly going to be able to stop anyone. 

Uconn gets in trouble when they cant run.  If they cant run on Baylor, they will have problems - but why wont they be able to run?  I love that they lost last week to UNC - a little desperation on their trip to Waco.

10.5 is a big number.

 

 

Couldn't agree more

UConn should have beat UNC.  I'm guessing if they had this line would have been just under a TD.

Great value.  UConn's D will keep them in almost every game this year. 

 Best of Luck

 
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Posted: #31
gl vanzack
 
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Posted: #32
Van,
 
Always am interested in your picks.  Will be going the other way on two:
 
Ball State/Army - BSU may have regressed more than any team from the 2008 to 2009, and I don't think that the linemakers have fully adjusted for their fall from grace.   They lost by 10 at home to bad N. Texas team in week 1 and lost to 1-AA New Hampshire in week #2.  I will continue to go against BSU until the line has caught up with BSU incredibly poor play.  Also, Army is improved they beat Eastern Michigan on the road, and were in a tight game with Duke until Army threw two pick-6s in the 4th quarter.  Army can run the ball, and BSU has given up an average of 203 yards rushing to N. Texas (who does not run the ball) and NH (who does not run as well as Army).  Just don't see Ball State as the play here.
 
Baylor/UCONN - I get going against Baylor as DD favorite as they are still learning to win and UCONN has a stout D.  That said, UCONN's starting QB is out, and Baylor has weapons on offense with the best QB that most people have never heard of in Robert Griffin, 2 good receievers in Kendall Wright and David Gattis, and a solid RB in Jay Finley.  Simply stated, Art Briles's knows how to score points.  Also, the Baylor D is under-rated.  Yes, they gave up over 30 a game last year, but they faced a ridiculous number of prolific offenses, and held almost all of them under their averages (Oklahoma, Texas, Texas Tech, Missouri, Nebraska all held below their average against Baylor).  They return almost everyone on D, and add Penn State stud DT Phil Taylor to make it even more difficult to run on the Bears. 
 
Baylor is the real deal, and is coming off a bye.  UCONN lost a tough one to UNC at home, and now must travel to Waco.  Very tough spot.  I will take the Bears even with the number that high. 
 
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Posted: #33
van
 
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Posted: #34
IM OFFICIALLY OFF GT TONIGHT....
 
BET THEM AT +5.5, AND JUST SOLD IT AT -4.
 
It was barely a bet at 5.5, but at 4 it is a lean but a no play.  I wouldnt bet the game at 4.
 
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Posted: #35
Quote Originally Posted by Stuckey:

On a few of the same.

Can't see how Virginia has any motivation to even show up for this game.  You know Southern Miss's offense will put up points.  Maybe UVA has a little momentum after finally deciding to run their spread and scoring two td's in the final two minutes against TCU, but I am staying away from this team when they play any team with an offensive pulse because their offense is dreadful.  More than capable of laying a goose egg out there.  USM is good for 30 imo so I'm staying away.

Understand, VA is a very scary team to bet on....

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Posted: #36
Quote Originally Posted by ashlyn:

Van, I am interested in your reasoning behind G. Tech.  That is the side that I like as well but I am a little hesitant due to the fact that I believe the "U" will be much more productive on offense this year with the arrival of Whipple and the departure of Nix.  Thanks, and I will be with you on Arkansas and Arizona this Saturday.  Bol to you brother.

I had this number at Mia -3.  So as I said above, at 5.5 it was a play.... But I sold it at -4...

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Posted: #37
Quote Originally Posted by 165yds:

Love the card except one pick, Florida.  I know the whole history in the offseason and how Florida wants to win by 50.  I don't think you can justify laying this amount of points though.  The reason why the dog covers more is the fact you aren't laying 29.5, there's a 33%  your laying 36.5 with the backdoor cover when defenses will go into prevent zone.  Same thing in basketball, you arent laying -4, theres a 34% your laying 7 to a wide open uncontested 3 point try.  Tennessee will get rolled on but no way this is the bloodbath most think it will be, every bad gambler will be on this game thinking they have an edge with the recruiting BS and trash talking.  Bye the way I have more respect for your knowledge than anyone else here on covers, well Mr. B too and think this cards win easily if you flat bet it.

This one is not a value bet for me - it is a gut feel bet - I just think FL takes them to the woodshed.  I think they can name the score, and will - and it will be ugly.

Thanks for the compliments.

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Posted: #38
Quote Originally Posted by Dilson:

Van,
 
Always am interested in your picks.  Will be going the other way on two:
 
Ball State/Army - BSU may have regressed more than any team from the 2008 to 2009, and I don't think that the linemakers have fully adjusted for their fall from grace.   They lost by 10 at home to bad N. Texas team in week 1 and lost to 1-AA New Hampshire in week #2.  I will continue to go against BSU until the line has caught up with BSU incredibly poor play.  Also, Army is improved they beat Eastern Michigan on the road, and were in a tight game with Duke until Army threw two pick-6s in the 4th quarter.  Army can run the ball, and BSU has given up an average of 203 yards rushing to N. Texas (who does not run the ball) and NH (who does not run as well as Army).  Just don't see Ball State as the play here.
 
Baylor/UCONN - I get going against Baylor as DD favorite as they are still learning to win and UCONN has a stout D.  That said, UCONN's starting QB is out, and Baylor has weapons on offense with the best QB that most people have never heard of in Robert Griffin, 2 good receievers in Kendall Wright and David Gattis, and a solid RB in Jay Finley.  Simply stated, Art Briles's knows how to score points.  Also, the Baylor D is under-rated.  Yes, they gave up over 30 a game last year, but they faced a ridiculous number of prolific offenses, and held almost all of them under their averages (Oklahoma, Texas, Texas Tech, Missouri, Nebraska all held below their average against Baylor).  They return almost everyone on D, and add Penn State stud DT Phil Taylor to make it even more difficult to run on the Bears. 
 
Baylor is the real deal, and is coming off a bye.  UCONN lost a tough one to UNC at home, and now must travel to Waco.  Very tough spot.  I will take the Bears even with the number that high. 

Good arguments.....

But Army giving 7.5 points?  To a team that went undefeated last year?  THIS IS ARMY!!  Will Army win more than 4 games this year?  I know ball st has had serious problems in their first 2 games - they have a new coach - lots of new players - but this is a MUST win for them.  They might come out flat - but if they do their season is toast.  There is nothing I can point to in Ball ST first 2 games to look at as an anchor for this bet (they had 127 total yds against NH!) - but I like a team that is used to winning and is 0-2.  But lets not forget - this is ARMY - and they are giving 7.5.....

As for Uconn - also hard to argue your logic - except that I am betting a number here that is too much for me not to take.  10.5 is just too big of a number to lay against a very solid defense, with a team that is unproven on defense.  As I said above - my worry is that UCONN cant run the ball - and if they fall behind schedule on 1st and 2nd they will not be able to throw on 3rd - and they will be toast.  The game pace will determine a lot in this one - but if uconn doesnt fall behind early - and are able to establish the run - I will take those points all day long.....

Neither of them are big plays for me - and I totally understand and agree with your logic - just betting that the probability of me covering each game is better than 55% - which is what I look for to make it a play.....

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Posted: #39
I think you did the right think Van, it takes guts to do that
 
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Posted: #40
Quote Originally Posted by Dilson:

Baylor/UCONN - They return almost everyone on D, and add Penn State stud DT Phil Taylor to make it even more difficult to run on the Bears. 
 

i think the importance of this addition cannot be over-stated...

 
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Posted: #41
i like Ball St... Army shouldn't be laying a TD to anyone... don't care how bad Ball St has looked, they are the better play in this one...
 
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Posted: #42
have you taken a look at Mustache v triple option this week?

-7.5 at home. not sure if you use sagarin at all but the team ratings are near even yet pitt is a TD fave. pitt beat them in annapolis last year by 21 and out rushed them as well.
 
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Posted: #43
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

These are my plays this week:
 
1.  GT (waiting on the number, at 5.5 now, feel like it will go up)
 
Saturday:
 
2.  Ball St +7.5 (1.5 units)
3.  Cuse +3.5
4.  AZ +5.5 (2 units)
5.  Virginia +15.5 (1.5 units)
6.  FL -29.5 (2 units)
7.  Buffalo +4
8.  UConn +10.5
9.  IA ST -3
10.  Ark -1.5
11.  Oregon State +1
 
 
GL all, will discuss any - feel free to bring up any opinions...
 

What?? No record? How do we know you are a good capper without a record?  You are quick to criticize others, yet post your plays with no record...not too forthright in my opinion...JJ

Good Luck

 
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Posted: #44
Quote Originally Posted by JimmyJet:

What?? No record? How do we know you are a good capper without a record?  You are quick to criticize others, yet post your plays with no record...not too forthright in my opinion...JJ

Good Luck


If you don't like his plays, don't follow him
 
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Posted: #45
Its not his plays that bother me but his insistence on bashing other posters for not posting the way he thinks they should post...i.e Mr Headache.
 
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Posted: #46
Quote Originally Posted by JimmyJet:

What?? No record? How do we know you are a good capper without a record?  You are quick to criticize others, yet post your plays with no record...not too forthright in my opinion...JJ

Good Luck

My posted record in NCAA is 7-10 (I think.... its something very close, you can go back if you want to).

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Posted: #47
Would you still play AZ at 4??
 
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Posted: #48
Quote Originally Posted by JimmyJet:

What?? No record? How do we know you are a good capper without a record?  You are quick to criticize others, yet post your plays with no record...not too forthright in my opinion...JJ

Good Luck

And BTW - 2 week records have nothing to do with being a "good capper".

I dont even know what it is to be a "good capper".

I make money sportsbetting.  That is my measuring stick.  When I stop making money, I will stop betting.  Not too sure what else to say about that.  I know most people dont bet to make money, but I do - so measurements of profitability for me are not really in 2 weeks, or 2 months - but more like 2 years or even better 10 years.  I dont bet for my rent money, and I dont need to win this week or next - I guess thats a big difference on how some people measure success.  I have been here at covers for 8 years, and will be here for 8 more - that alone should tell you something.

But either way, GL to you, and with your PM's to Headache about those people who "want to contact" him.  Keep in mind - I have seen this all before - and will see it all again....

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Posted: #49
Quote Originally Posted by yuice20:

Would you still play AZ at 4??

2 units 4.5+

1.5 units 3.5+

1 unit 1-3

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Posted: #50
Quote Originally Posted by KOAJ:

have you taken a look at Mustache v triple option this week?

-7.5 at home. not sure if you use sagarin at all but the team ratings are near even yet pitt is a TD fave. pitt beat them in annapolis last year by 21 and out rushed them as well.

I have and lean Pitt....

But I swear I have a bias with Navy....  And midway through last season swore them off to bet on or against - I do think Pitt should beat them but laying the 8 or so is tough....

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