Quote Originally Posted by jimmydafreak:
[Quote: Origi0nally Posted by Mappie04] Jimmy I also feel USF has no chance. Can u please explain your reasoning. I've been following ur best bets and you're amazing.
I think I can write a book on all the reasons why I love USF, but I'll try my best to keep it as succinct as possible.
Given that Wisconsin has been hit hard by the touts which has driven the line up from 33 to 34.5 at some houses, your question is a very legitimate one. Heck, even Phil Steele predicts a 48-10 Wisconsin blowout. Needless to say, I strongly disagree.
First of all, this is a classic look-ahead-to-conference-play game. So ask yourself this question. If Wisconsin builds a significant 2nd half lead against USF (which is very plausible) will Gary Anderson allow his starters to play late into the game to blow out USF by as many points possible, or will he pull his starters early to get ready for conference play the following week? I think the answer is obvious. Assuming Wisconsin is even capable of running up the score on USF (and I'm not at all convinced that they are), I see zero motivation for them to do so with the start of conference play looming on deck.
Moreover, who in the heck is Wisconsin to be laying 5 TDs to any respectable FBS football program? Based on what? They got completely steam rolled in the 4th quarter to a team that very well may be the worst team in the SEC West. Then they were lined as 41-point favorites against Western Illinois against whom they only managed to rush for 169 yards on 39 attempts, for a very pedestrian 4.3 yards per carry. Then, coming off of a bye week, they faced one of the worst rushing defenses in the history of organized football - Bowling Green - against whom they racked up a ridiculous 644 yards rushing on 60 carries.
So because Wisconsin's rushing attack steamrolled an atrocious Bowling Green run defense last week - a team they were only favored to beat by 25.5 points BTW - we are now to believe that they should be favored by 34 over a far better USF team in a classic look-ahead spot??? This is a prime example of reading waaaaaay too much into last week's results against a pathetic football team.
The current line is absurd. So Bowling Green is a 25.5-point dog in a no-look-ahead situation, but USF is now a 34-point dog in a classc look-ahead spot??? Black please!!! This line is at least 7-10 points too high IMO.
I'm am a huge Willie Taggart fan, and some of you may remember when Western Kentucky + the points and Western Kentucky ML were mainstays on my weekly card. When the books gave a Willie Taggart coached Western Kentucky team points, I was waiting at the other end to scoop up the bling.
The one thing about a Willie Taggart coached team (Taggart is a Charlie Strong clone IMO) is they will fight you tooth and nail for 60 minutes. Moreover, the strength of the USF team is their defensive front 4. Here we have USF's defensive front 4 matched up a completely one-dimensional Wisconsin team against whom they match up very favorably with at the point of attack. And the books are going to give me 33-35 points points??? Are you kidding me??? This is a no-brainer.
The scary part of this bet is not Wisconsin's rushing attack versus USF's rush defense, it is that USF's offense is completely inept. Quite frankly, if USF had a competent offense, I would be laying a little money down on the ML. But because they are so inept, that will put a lot more pressure on the defense which is why the defense will probably surrender 34-38 points in this game. Honestly the only shot Wisconsin has of covering this bet is if their defense pitches a shutout, and I have no problem betting that won't happen.
Final score prediction: Wisconsin 34, South Florida 13
Hot Forum Topics
