Could this be a big let down spot?

The line tells me so right off the bat, but why?

You're telling me that Tulane just smoked NW 23-3 and is only laying 10.5 to South Bama?

A lot of people were on NW in week 1, so they'll remember the game, and maybe over value Tulane moving forward. 

There's a lot to unpack here, and I can't type out everything I've gone over, but here it goes.

Tulane was upset with NW because they wanted to wear a commemorative jersey for the Hurricane Katrina tragedy. 

https://sports.yahoo.com/college-football/breaking-news/article/tulane-coach-says-northwestern-denied-teams-request-to-wear-white-jerseys-to-honor-05-team-displaced-by-hurricane-katrina-202648063.html

So in turn they wore black and did a black out game. If you watched the game, it was a true ass whooping. One should think a lot of emotion and preparation went into this game.

They have Duke on deck followed by Ole Miss before conference play begins.

South Bama played non major Morgan State winning 38-21. How that game was prepared for and played is beyond me. Was it treated like a scrimmage? Did Major Applewhite pull starters in the 2H? I'm not sure, but I would believe that Tulane on deck in week 2 is of more importance. Especially with having to play at Auburn in week 3 where a chance of a W will be slim to none.

I'd think that a 2-0 start both at home to start the season is the more realistic goal.

Here are some generic trends that any regular Joe six pack bettor can find before placing a bet on this game:

-South Alabama is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games played on a Saturday when playing at home

-Tulane is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road

-South Alabama is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games played in September

-Tulane is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games against an opponent in the Sun Belt conference

Last time these two teams played each other was in 2023 where Tulane won 37-13.

Just seems too easy with the spread that this game is getting. It opened at 10, and is now 10.5.

If anyone has anything on this game, it'd be much appreciated. 

I am leaning Under on that one but will look into this. -10 on the road is usually reserved for a Top 25 team and if they are that type of team like their play showed last week, they will cover this by -13 

Bammy had 24 players who had never played for them get time, don't know how many were starters. They had 4 takeaways. Not to be out done Tulane had 4 int's and a fumble recovery. What scares me here though is Bammy gave up 180 on the ground to Morgan St. while Tulane rumbled or slashed or both for 269 against N.W. I agree with Thirsty the U 51 has appeal.

@undermysac

  My take, fwiw..... 

I have TULANE rated in my tier ratings as M+ [posted in my season thread page 141]  and S.Alabama on the cusp of m/M- ....iow, a full tier and a half edge for Tulane.

From my recordkeeping over the decades this translates (roughly, not exact!) to about a -9 pt edge to TULANE on a neutral field.  However, this game is a roadie for Tulane and they yield about 3 pts to Jaguars homefield advantage, thus strongly suggesting a line of about -6 on Tulane. 

To me, anything more than a line of -8.5 as a roadie and I would consider that "overvalued" and  S.Alabama should have value as a DD dog, at home, particularly with a hook.

Of course turnovers, injuries, lucky big breaks can change the outcome easily! 

@fubah2

 Thanks for your numbers 

Heard that the 5 heaviest bet teams either lost or failed to cover. Now if this is not true blame the guy on the radio not me. 

I used to live down there a while back. They like to call it LA for Lower Alabama.

Hancock Whitney Stadium is a rough venue for visitors...small, compact stadium to play in. The 10.5 spot surprised me. Don't know anything about the talent on either squad, but the spot looks  @4-5 points too tall. Jags can be super competitive in Mobile...lots of players that Bama and Auburn pass on.

Plus you really don't know if Tulane is that good of if NW had a bad first game in that Big Easy humidity and heat. Most of their players were probably sucking wind the 2nd half.

And too, this was the only line that jumped out at me when I scanned to sheet. I looked off to me.

BOL however you play,

RT2

This very thought was in my head when I made the post, but didn't type it out.

NW was way out of their element in Louisiana.