COLLEGE FOOTBALL TODAY PLAYS (9/21)

YTD (CFB):  9-7 ATS (BIG PLAY: 1-1 ATS)

Horrible week last time around, losing my big play which counted for a double loss.  Won't have the same week this time around but quite a big slate of games to select from.  

UNDER 48 (HOUSTON/CINCINNATI):  Truth be told, both of these teams are in rebuild mode and Cincinnati playing at home I think will be the difference in the game.  The Houston defense has been solid but the offense has been woeful and I think the Cincinnati defense is going to keep that trend going.  Houston has relied more on their aerial attacks so far this season but they have also had to play from behind in 2 of the 3 games they have played.  I believe they will reverse that this week and try to keep a Cincinnati offense which has been solid, if unspectacular, on the sidelines.  I don't like how Cincinnati have finished off games and so the play will not be on them.  But the trends all point to this game going UNDER both when looking at H2H and over the past 10 conference games played, for both sides.  

KANSAS (+1):  Both teams are disappointed heading into this game with Kansas perhaps more so.  They outplayed all their opponents but have only 1 win against an FCS team to for it.  I know that West Virginia is at home and can score but the Kansas defense is pretty good and the Mountaineers secondary is pretty bad.  On the other side of the ball, the Kansas offensive line ranks as one of the tops in the country and I can see them leaning heavily on the run, so a play on the over was a bit dicey here.  The weather will cooperate so nothing to fear there.  I'm going with the better team to get back to .500 and deal West Virginia another close loss at home.

I've got a couple more games I'm eyeing but they are later in the day.  Focus on rounding out a profitable soccer morning and these are the only two CFB games that stuck out.  I almost went back to the well with Tulane but need a week off to get that bad taste out of my mouth and QB Mensah was just not very good last week, albeit it was against Oklahoma.  Loads of games and handicappers so do your own research.  As always, tail or fade, good luck to all...

Bol LA

@LAGameofInches

Ironically, only a few weeks ago, I drafted this:   It's rare that Cal heads east but when they do, they seem to do well.  In fact, they have covered their past FIVE straight games played in the EST/CST zone.  And since 2005, they are actually 8-4 ATS playing on the other coast.

That game ended up as a California victory and so the only things to do is improve on those ATS numbers, though they are also really good straight up.  Facing an FSU team that can't have much confidence at this point but will still think they can beat Cal.  I'm not sure they will and I will back those numbers again.

Adding...

CALIFORNIA (+2.5):  Thought to make this a big play based on them now having covered SIX straight and being 9-4 ATS after the Auburn game.  But the short line gives me added confidence in knowing they don't want more money on California as this is a good spot for them.

TEXAS TECH FH (-3):  Not sure how these teams will ultimately match up but with a short line for Texas Tech in the FH almost identical to the FG spread, I'm biting on the Red Raiders coming out strong.  ASU has been good and a bit surprising but this is their first true road test and it's going to be tough sledding on the road in the Big 12.  If they limit their mistakes, I believe the Red Raiders are the right side especially in the FH.  Their passing offense is tops in the Big 12 (remember Texas is now in the SEC) and I think the Sun Devils will find the competition a bit stiffer than last week at Texas State.

NOTRE DAME (-27.5):  Not much to say here I expect the Irish to keep rolling as they did at Purdue last week.  Miami is NO match for them and this is going to be one of those big blowouts imo.  Unless there is some sort of weather or something odd they should win by 30+.  

That's what I have for later.  Hoping that Kansas can keep the positive 2nd half in what I'm expecting to come down to the wire.  Also there actually could be a weather delay so I'm not sure what that would do.  Obviously also hoping that the Cincinnati game says under, Houston looks lifeless which is a good thing in a blowout.  As always, tail or fade, good luck to all...

Got the first one and now I'm stuck in another weather delay when playing a WV game in Morgantown lol.  But good to get that blowout under...

UNDER 48 (HOUSTON/CINCINNATI) W

Will update record a bit later.  Hope everyone is having a good day so far.