Easy to say for a person who has access to their phone all day and their employer doesn't care if they check it every now and then but all experienced bettors (doesn't mean that they're good or long term winners) know not to buy points.
Ideally this is what you "should" keyword, should be doing.
-Look at the matchup and anticipate the ball park of the odds.
-Check the odds when they first come out (will vary depending on your book)
-Anticipate how the line will move.
-Check throughout the day to see if the line has moved in the direct that you predicted.
-IF the line moved, hopefully you can get it at the number you want if you checked up on the line throughout the day..
Or
Wait for a live betting event..
Then again we don't all live in a world where we have time to prioritize sports odds shopping. We have families, jobs, friends, etc..
"Schrödinger's bet." A bet that loses when you bet it but wins when you DON'T bet it...
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Easy to say for a person who has access to their phone all day and their employer doesn't care if they check it every now and then but all experienced bettors (doesn't mean that they're good or long term winners) know not to buy points.
Ideally this is what you "should" keyword, should be doing.
-Look at the matchup and anticipate the ball park of the odds.
-Check the odds when they first come out (will vary depending on your book)
-Anticipate how the line will move.
-Check throughout the day to see if the line has moved in the direct that you predicted.
-IF the line moved, hopefully you can get it at the number you want if you checked up on the line throughout the day..
Or
Wait for a live betting event..
Then again we don't all live in a world where we have time to prioritize sports odds shopping. We have families, jobs, friends, etc..
I try to "sell" the half-point or point rather than spend more to remove it.......those hooks matter much more in football than they do in basketball.......if you really like a play then the half-point shouldn't be a large concern.......
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I try to "sell" the half-point or point rather than spend more to remove it.......those hooks matter much more in football than they do in basketball.......if you really like a play then the half-point shouldn't be a large concern.......
Vote: Move the spread/total to a whole number...losing by a hook is too frustrating
Posted:#4
Thanks, gents for taking time to comment ...and to everyone for voting!
I posed this question because I will almost always buy 1/2 point to avoid potentially losing by a hook. I know conventional wisdom says never pay for points. But anecdotally it sure seems to save me just often enough.
I was about to give the practice up a couple of days ago when two plays pushed on the same day where I had bought the hook. On the 10th: Memphis to -7 and Northwestern to +8.
I'll endeavor to track when it costs me, when it doesn't factor in, and when it saves me a loss.
As always, your humble gambling hobbyist...wishing us all a pleasant and profitable day!
Taproom Tourist
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Thanks, gents for taking time to comment ...and to everyone for voting!
I posed this question because I will almost always buy 1/2 point to avoid potentially losing by a hook. I know conventional wisdom says never pay for points. But anecdotally it sure seems to save me just often enough.
I was about to give the practice up a couple of days ago when two plays pushed on the same day where I had bought the hook. On the 10th: Memphis to -7 and Northwestern to +8.
I'll endeavor to track when it costs me, when it doesn't factor in, and when it saves me a loss.
As always, your humble gambling hobbyist...wishing us all a pleasant and profitable day!
Vote: Move the spread/total to a whole number...losing by a hook is too frustrating
Posted:#5
I've found that buying the hook can sometimes save you when you're adding significantly to the vig, you lose in the long run. I've noticed a few posts by a guy on here where they're actually buying whole points and more. Not only will you never make a profit that way, it's pretty much a guarantee you'll be paying through the nose
Question Authority
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I've found that buying the hook can sometimes save you when you're adding significantly to the vig, you lose in the long run. I've noticed a few posts by a guy on here where they're actually buying whole points and more. Not only will you never make a profit that way, it's pretty much a guarantee you'll be paying through the nose
Vote: Move the spread/total to a whole number...losing by a hook is too frustrating
Posted:#6
Since Sunday when I had two plays in the same day where I bought 1/2 point and both moved a loss to a push, I've been tracking and have made a few more wagers buying a 1/2 point and moving the spread to a whole number.
I gotta chuckle at the coincidence of this: As of last night I was down $41.50 in extra juice spent on plays that lost anyway...then I placed $40 wager on the Hawks, posted at my book at +5.5 (-105), so I buy to +6. (-115). They lose 118-124. Gotta love it, saved me a potential loss of $42. So the net on such plays this week so far = 50 cents.
Now granted nothing scientific about this and doesn't prove or disprove anything, just anecdotal... but sure didn't hurt as much last night after the Hawks late game collapse and the Heat hitting two free throws with five seconds, only moved me to a push and not a loss!
Best of luck to all today...all in all my gambling week has been for sh*t, crossing my fingers for a good day today!
Taproom Tourist
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Since Sunday when I had two plays in the same day where I bought 1/2 point and both moved a loss to a push, I've been tracking and have made a few more wagers buying a 1/2 point and moving the spread to a whole number.
I gotta chuckle at the coincidence of this: As of last night I was down $41.50 in extra juice spent on plays that lost anyway...then I placed $40 wager on the Hawks, posted at my book at +5.5 (-105), so I buy to +6. (-115). They lose 118-124. Gotta love it, saved me a potential loss of $42. So the net on such plays this week so far = 50 cents.
Now granted nothing scientific about this and doesn't prove or disprove anything, just anecdotal... but sure didn't hurt as much last night after the Hawks late game collapse and the Heat hitting two free throws with five seconds, only moved me to a push and not a loss!
Best of luck to all today...all in all my gambling week has been for sh*t, crossing my fingers for a good day today!
Vote: Move the spread/total to a whole number...losing by a hook is too frustrating
Posted:#7
I’ve had some really bad beats because of the hook. Especially in college hoops. I don’t even hesitate and buy the hook. But if I have time for a live play I’d rather do that.
All it takes is one bad day to reduce the sanest man alive to lunacy
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I’ve had some really bad beats because of the hook. Especially in college hoops. I don’t even hesitate and buy the hook. But if I have time for a live play I’d rather do that.
Vote: Move the spread/total to a whole number...losing by a hook is too frustrating
Posted:#9
I’ll buy on key numbers in football if they aren’t killing me with juice 3’ 4’ 7’ and certain totals. I usually buy the 4’ down to 3. If the juice seems to high I’ll bet the ML or won’t bet. Basketball I’ll buy some of the 2-10 numbers just depending on how close I think the number is.
one thing I’ve starting doing last couple weeks is taking a 1 to 2 point favorite in CBB and making them a 2-3 point dog depending on juice. Example SH today is -1.5 at a book I use and I can bet them +2.5 for 35 cents instead of 10. I know you got the zero which is dead and the 1’s are semi dead but I still think with conference play there might be an edge. It’s won me a couple games lately but I don’t have enough info on it yet. Just trying it out for now.
i like to bet games and I’m not going to lay 3’ ever in NFL game so “never” buying points isn’t really an option and I don’t really agree with the philosophy anyway. Juice only matters if you lose.
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I’ll buy on key numbers in football if they aren’t killing me with juice 3’ 4’ 7’ and certain totals. I usually buy the 4’ down to 3. If the juice seems to high I’ll bet the ML or won’t bet. Basketball I’ll buy some of the 2-10 numbers just depending on how close I think the number is.
one thing I’ve starting doing last couple weeks is taking a 1 to 2 point favorite in CBB and making them a 2-3 point dog depending on juice. Example SH today is -1.5 at a book I use and I can bet them +2.5 for 35 cents instead of 10. I know you got the zero which is dead and the 1’s are semi dead but I still think with conference play there might be an edge. It’s won me a couple games lately but I don’t have enough info on it yet. Just trying it out for now.
i like to bet games and I’m not going to lay 3’ ever in NFL game so “never” buying points isn’t really an option and I don’t really agree with the philosophy anyway. Juice only matters if you lose.
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