Terrible, awful bet on Pitt Tuesday night after seeing that Woodall was playing. I promised myself I would not bet that game and did so anyway. Bad. Not making an impulse bet like that again for awhile, hopefully.
Indiana @ Michigan State -5.5 (1.5 units) Been eyeing this one for well over a week, and that was before the Sheehey and Verdell Jones injuries. Indiana has one legitimate win (Kentucky), where an incredible crowd and almost everyone playing above his typical level gave them just enough to pull it out. Other than that, the competition has been porous. NC State on the road is a decent win and Notre Dame on a neutral is alright, as well. 8 of the other 9 wins, however, have come against teams ranked #200 or below per KenPom. Let's face it: the stats are deceiving. Losing Sheehey is a big blow. He's the "glue guy" that keeps things running on both ends of the floor. Does everything well and can guard multiple positions. Losing Verdell Jones presents a different problem. All B1G defender Keith Appling can now spend a large portion of his time guarding Jordan Hulls, leaving Victor Oladipo as the lone perimeter threat. But Oladipo is more of a slasher than a shooter. The point is, MSU can pack in its defense with two of Indiana's outside threats not available to play.
In the frontcourt, Cody Zeller is going to get an education in big-time Division I college basketball. Name for me a tougher first Big Ten game than Izzo's group in East Lansing? None. Sparty pounds the boards ridiculously hard at both ends and Zeller has yet to see a frontcourt (yes, including Kentucky), that is as relentless and well-coached on the glass as is Michigan State.
Ultimately, Appling's on-ball defense against Hulls and the ability of the MSU frontcourt to control the glass should be enough to produce a win. Sheehey and Jones are two vitally important cogs in the Indiana attack and the Breslin Center is not exactly an ideal place to debut a shorter bench and depleted lineup.
Terrible, awful bet on Pitt Tuesday night after seeing that Woodall was playing. I promised myself I would not bet that game and did so anyway. Bad. Not making an impulse bet like that again for awhile, hopefully.
Indiana @ Michigan State -5.5 (1.5 units) Been eyeing this one for well over a week, and that was before the Sheehey and Verdell Jones injuries. Indiana has one legitimate win (Kentucky), where an incredible crowd and almost everyone playing above his typical level gave them just enough to pull it out. Other than that, the competition has been porous. NC State on the road is a decent win and Notre Dame on a neutral is alright, as well. 8 of the other 9 wins, however, have come against teams ranked #200 or below per KenPom. Let's face it: the stats are deceiving. Losing Sheehey is a big blow. He's the "glue guy" that keeps things running on both ends of the floor. Does everything well and can guard multiple positions. Losing Verdell Jones presents a different problem. All B1G defender Keith Appling can now spend a large portion of his time guarding Jordan Hulls, leaving Victor Oladipo as the lone perimeter threat. But Oladipo is more of a slasher than a shooter. The point is, MSU can pack in its defense with two of Indiana's outside threats not available to play.
In the frontcourt, Cody Zeller is going to get an education in big-time Division I college basketball. Name for me a tougher first Big Ten game than Izzo's group in East Lansing? None. Sparty pounds the boards ridiculously hard at both ends and Zeller has yet to see a frontcourt (yes, including Kentucky), that is as relentless and well-coached on the glass as is Michigan State.
Ultimately, Appling's on-ball defense against Hulls and the ability of the MSU frontcourt to control the glass should be enough to produce a win. Sheehey and Jones are two vitally important cogs in the Indiana attack and the Breslin Center is not exactly an ideal place to debut a shorter bench and depleted lineup.
Colorado State +3.5 @ UTEP (1 unit) All about the spot. UTEP made the long trip to Hawaii for the Diamond Head Classic and had a really nice showing with wins over Clemson and Auburn and a scrappy effort versus Kansas State. They returned home to Texas on Sunday night and (presumably) had Monday off to recuperate. I can't verify this, but my guess is they had one day of prep time for a highly-complex Colorado State offense that uses a variety of scorers to put up points in bunches. CSU is well-rested, having been off since last Thursday. Floyd's Triangle-and-2 and other "junk" defenses will have been well-scouted by the CSU staff with 3 games in 4 days. If Floyd and UTEP can pick themselves up and put together a big effort in this game, all the power in the world to them. History suggests otherwise as teams returning from Hawaii and other tropical destinations tend to fairly poorly in the first game back on the mainland.
Missouri State +10.5 @ Creighton (1 unit) I love Doug McDermott's game. Really love it. But he's gone several straight games now against teams ill-equipped to present him with any type of defensive resistance. That will change tomorrow night when a solid and experienced Missouri State group rolls into Omaha. The Bears beat Creighton in all 3 meetings last season and return plenty of key parts from the '10-'11 team. Most important among them is Kyle Weems, who will likely finish as the runner-up to McDermott in the MVC player of the year voting. At 6'6 230 lbs and rather athletic and versatile, Weems should at least be able to contain McDermott, who has been bullying smaller defenders around on the elbow and low blocks. Another advantage for Missouri State is its ability to control tempo. The Bears average just 64.8 possessions per game (#279) and start 3 seniors in their regular lineup. The Qwest Center will not be a new experience. Creighton is lethal in transition, but this will be one of the slower-paced games it plays all season. Obviously, there's some revenge factor in play from last season's 3 losses to MSU, but Creighton's "biggest" game of the year is actually on Saturday night when it travels to Wichita State. There shouldn't be a look-ahead, but this is an additional component to be considered.
Colorado State +3.5 @ UTEP (1 unit) All about the spot. UTEP made the long trip to Hawaii for the Diamond Head Classic and had a really nice showing with wins over Clemson and Auburn and a scrappy effort versus Kansas State. They returned home to Texas on Sunday night and (presumably) had Monday off to recuperate. I can't verify this, but my guess is they had one day of prep time for a highly-complex Colorado State offense that uses a variety of scorers to put up points in bunches. CSU is well-rested, having been off since last Thursday. Floyd's Triangle-and-2 and other "junk" defenses will have been well-scouted by the CSU staff with 3 games in 4 days. If Floyd and UTEP can pick themselves up and put together a big effort in this game, all the power in the world to them. History suggests otherwise as teams returning from Hawaii and other tropical destinations tend to fairly poorly in the first game back on the mainland.
Missouri State +10.5 @ Creighton (1 unit) I love Doug McDermott's game. Really love it. But he's gone several straight games now against teams ill-equipped to present him with any type of defensive resistance. That will change tomorrow night when a solid and experienced Missouri State group rolls into Omaha. The Bears beat Creighton in all 3 meetings last season and return plenty of key parts from the '10-'11 team. Most important among them is Kyle Weems, who will likely finish as the runner-up to McDermott in the MVC player of the year voting. At 6'6 230 lbs and rather athletic and versatile, Weems should at least be able to contain McDermott, who has been bullying smaller defenders around on the elbow and low blocks. Another advantage for Missouri State is its ability to control tempo. The Bears average just 64.8 possessions per game (#279) and start 3 seniors in their regular lineup. The Qwest Center will not be a new experience. Creighton is lethal in transition, but this will be one of the slower-paced games it plays all season. Obviously, there's some revenge factor in play from last season's 3 losses to MSU, but Creighton's "biggest" game of the year is actually on Saturday night when it travels to Wichita State. There shouldn't be a look-ahead, but this is an additional component to be considered.
the Hall seems way too high. They rolled the Orange last year, so revenge might be there but c'mon... 15 and a half. If Syracuse covers this then so be it.
the Hall seems way too high. They rolled the Orange last year, so revenge might be there but c'mon... 15 and a half. If Syracuse covers this then so be it.
the Hall seems way too high. They rolled the Orange last year, so revenge might be there but c'mon... 15 and a half. If Syracuse covers this then so be it.
they rolled em with Hazell shooting 3 after 3, he is no longer there.
the Hall seems way too high. They rolled the Orange last year, so revenge might be there but c'mon... 15 and a half. If Syracuse covers this then so be it.
they rolled em with Hazell shooting 3 after 3, he is no longer there.
Colorado State +3.5 @ UTEP (1 unit) All about the spot. UTEP made the long trip to Hawaii for the Diamond Head Classic and had a really nice showing with wins over Clemson and Auburn and a scrappy effort versus Kansas State. They returned home to Texas on Sunday night and (presumably) had Monday off to recuperate. I can't verify this, but my guess is they had one day of prep time for a highly-complex Colorado State offense that uses a variety of scorers to put up points in bunches. CSU is well-rested, having been off since last Thursday. Floyd's Triangle-and-2 and other "junk" defenses will have been well-scouted by the CSU staff with 3 games in 4 days. If Floyd and UTEP can pick themselves up and put together a big effort in this game, all the power in the world to them. History suggests otherwise as teams returning from Hawaii and other tropical destinations tend to fairly poorly in the first game back on the mainland.
Missouri State +10.5 @ Creighton (1 unit) I love Doug McDermott's game. Really love it. But he's gone several straight games now against teams ill-equipped to present him with any type of defensive resistance. That will change tomorrow night when a solid and experienced Missouri State group rolls into Omaha. The Bears beat Creighton in all 3 meetings last season and return plenty of key parts from the '10-'11 team. Most important among them is Kyle Weems, who will likely finish as the runner-up to McDermott in the MVC player of the year voting. At 6'6 230 lbs and rather athletic and versatile, Weems should at least be able to contain McDermott, who has been bullying smaller defenders around on the elbow and low blocks. Another advantage for Missouri State is its ability to control tempo. The Bears average just 64.8 possessions per game (#279) and start 3 seniors in their regular lineup. The Qwest Center will not be a new experience. Creighton is lethal in transition, but this will be one of the slower-paced games it plays all season. Obviously, there's some revenge factor in play from last season's 3 losses to MSU, but Creighton's "biggest" game of the year is actually on Saturday night when it travels to Wichita State. There shouldn't be a look-ahead, but this is an additional component to be considered.
Just to clarify - for Missouri State, Weems and Caleb Patterson are back, but the Bears lost five of their top six scorers (Weems the remaining) from last season.
Colorado State +3.5 @ UTEP (1 unit) All about the spot. UTEP made the long trip to Hawaii for the Diamond Head Classic and had a really nice showing with wins over Clemson and Auburn and a scrappy effort versus Kansas State. They returned home to Texas on Sunday night and (presumably) had Monday off to recuperate. I can't verify this, but my guess is they had one day of prep time for a highly-complex Colorado State offense that uses a variety of scorers to put up points in bunches. CSU is well-rested, having been off since last Thursday. Floyd's Triangle-and-2 and other "junk" defenses will have been well-scouted by the CSU staff with 3 games in 4 days. If Floyd and UTEP can pick themselves up and put together a big effort in this game, all the power in the world to them. History suggests otherwise as teams returning from Hawaii and other tropical destinations tend to fairly poorly in the first game back on the mainland.
Missouri State +10.5 @ Creighton (1 unit) I love Doug McDermott's game. Really love it. But he's gone several straight games now against teams ill-equipped to present him with any type of defensive resistance. That will change tomorrow night when a solid and experienced Missouri State group rolls into Omaha. The Bears beat Creighton in all 3 meetings last season and return plenty of key parts from the '10-'11 team. Most important among them is Kyle Weems, who will likely finish as the runner-up to McDermott in the MVC player of the year voting. At 6'6 230 lbs and rather athletic and versatile, Weems should at least be able to contain McDermott, who has been bullying smaller defenders around on the elbow and low blocks. Another advantage for Missouri State is its ability to control tempo. The Bears average just 64.8 possessions per game (#279) and start 3 seniors in their regular lineup. The Qwest Center will not be a new experience. Creighton is lethal in transition, but this will be one of the slower-paced games it plays all season. Obviously, there's some revenge factor in play from last season's 3 losses to MSU, but Creighton's "biggest" game of the year is actually on Saturday night when it travels to Wichita State. There shouldn't be a look-ahead, but this is an additional component to be considered.
Just to clarify - for Missouri State, Weems and Caleb Patterson are back, but the Bears lost five of their top six scorers (Weems the remaining) from last season.
Just to clarify - for Missouri State, Weems and Caleb Patterson are back, but the Bears lost five of their top six scorers (Weems the remaining) from last season.
Very true. Should have been more clear. Their guys are older on paper, but not necessarily highly-experienced. I know they lost Ricks, Creekmore, Mallett, Leonard...Can't think of the 5th guy off hand. Thanks for the clarification.
Just to clarify - for Missouri State, Weems and Caleb Patterson are back, but the Bears lost five of their top six scorers (Weems the remaining) from last season.
Very true. Should have been more clear. Their guys are older on paper, but not necessarily highly-experienced. I know they lost Ricks, Creekmore, Mallett, Leonard...Can't think of the 5th guy off hand. Thanks for the clarification.
the Hall seems way too high. They rolled the Orange last year, so revenge might be there but c'mon... 15 and a half. If Syracuse covers this then so be it.
Yeah, I'm gonna leave it alone. Too many ways this game can go. If Pope manages to get in foul trouble, things could get ugly.
the Hall seems way too high. They rolled the Orange last year, so revenge might be there but c'mon... 15 and a half. If Syracuse covers this then so be it.
Yeah, I'm gonna leave it alone. Too many ways this game can go. If Pope manages to get in foul trouble, things could get ugly.
Still boggles my mind to see Colorado State as the best three-point shooting team in the country. If they shoot well tonight I think they win this game straight up. Dorian Green was 8 for 10 from three point land at N. Colorado last week; if he can do even half that I think they'll be able to win SU. Just a really really gritty, gutty team w/ a superb backcourt...and it helps that UTEP is pretty bad at defending the three. Moneyline it is for me.
Still boggles my mind to see Colorado State as the best three-point shooting team in the country. If they shoot well tonight I think they win this game straight up. Dorian Green was 8 for 10 from three point land at N. Colorado last week; if he can do even half that I think they'll be able to win SU. Just a really really gritty, gutty team w/ a superb backcourt...and it helps that UTEP is pretty bad at defending the three. Moneyline it is for me.
I am on all three with you JFen. The Missouri State play is my favorite. It seems history repeats itself often in CBB and the fact that Missouri State has won 5 in a row against Creighton is another reason to back Missouri State. Colorado State should face a lethargic defense tonight in UTEP. Bama returned from the Puerto Rico tournament and didn't find their legs for a couple of weeks. It seems like it effects teams more that went to the islands and played well. The Michigan State play is just playing a multiple loss team that is favored over a higher ranked and unbeaten Indiana team. I expect Sparty to win easily.
I am on all three with you JFen. The Missouri State play is my favorite. It seems history repeats itself often in CBB and the fact that Missouri State has won 5 in a row against Creighton is another reason to back Missouri State. Colorado State should face a lethargic defense tonight in UTEP. Bama returned from the Puerto Rico tournament and didn't find their legs for a couple of weeks. It seems like it effects teams more that went to the islands and played well. The Michigan State play is just playing a multiple loss team that is favored over a higher ranked and unbeaten Indiana team. I expect Sparty to win easily.
Looking ahead to Thursday, there are a few openers I'm waiting on:
Wagner @ Air Force...the AFA's Princeton offense will give Wagner's pressure man-to-man tons of problems. Combine the Pitt letdown with the unfamiliarity of playing at altitude, and Wagner could be in some trouble. No idea where this number might open.
Florida @ Rutgers...Knights get Kadeem Jack eligible, which should help the frontline. The RAC is a very difficult place to play and I'd be inclined to give Rutgers a hard look at 10+.
Georgia Tech @ Fordham...Tricky game for the Jackets. Fordham plays at a completely different level at Rose Hill and GT might be peaking ahead to its next two games: Alabama and Duke.
Western Kentucky @ UL-Monroe...Warhawks playing much better basketball since adding Steve McClellan to the front line. This will be the first SBC game for much of WKU's roster. Anticipating somewhere around a PK with a lot of action on a WKU team that played its best game of the year last week at Louisville.
Oklahoma vs. Cincinnati Over...Anticipating somewhere around 136. Cincy is playing much faster since the Yancy Gates suspension, primarily utilizing a 4-guard lineup, OU loves to press and push the ball, which should make for a frenetic game and at least 70 possessions.
Oregon State @ Washington Over...Anything south of 160 is probably a play. Neither team is remotely interested in defense and shots will be fired up early and often.
Looking ahead to Thursday, there are a few openers I'm waiting on:
Wagner @ Air Force...the AFA's Princeton offense will give Wagner's pressure man-to-man tons of problems. Combine the Pitt letdown with the unfamiliarity of playing at altitude, and Wagner could be in some trouble. No idea where this number might open.
Florida @ Rutgers...Knights get Kadeem Jack eligible, which should help the frontline. The RAC is a very difficult place to play and I'd be inclined to give Rutgers a hard look at 10+.
Georgia Tech @ Fordham...Tricky game for the Jackets. Fordham plays at a completely different level at Rose Hill and GT might be peaking ahead to its next two games: Alabama and Duke.
Western Kentucky @ UL-Monroe...Warhawks playing much better basketball since adding Steve McClellan to the front line. This will be the first SBC game for much of WKU's roster. Anticipating somewhere around a PK with a lot of action on a WKU team that played its best game of the year last week at Louisville.
Oklahoma vs. Cincinnati Over...Anticipating somewhere around 136. Cincy is playing much faster since the Yancy Gates suspension, primarily utilizing a 4-guard lineup, OU loves to press and push the ball, which should make for a frenetic game and at least 70 possessions.
Oregon State @ Washington Over...Anything south of 160 is probably a play. Neither team is remotely interested in defense and shots will be fired up early and often.
I always read your write ups and look forward to those when you post. I have great respect for your overall knowledge of the players and your percentage of wins.
Read the write up and not swaying my original decision to play Indiana and here is why. Last year Indiana took State into overtime in Mich St. without Verdall Jones playing. Hulls still had 17 points shooting 6-16 and 4-4 from the ft line. Indiana is a very good foul shooting team and Mich St. always plays a very physical game where there is going to be alot of fouls. State shoots a little over 68 percent and last year shot over 74 percent but still went ot. True Mich St will out rebound I just dont think its enough and believe Zeller will still score from the field and from the line.
I dont care if Indiana beat Kent. the point is Indiana plays 40 minutes and not a minute less. Even down 20 with 3 minutes left they still play every minute as evident last year.
Tom Creen is a great coach in my top ten and is a positive motivator,. and has Indiana as a top 20 team when all was lost 4 years ago. He has players who believe in him and themselves and have positive energy from that Kent game that they can win. I will take the 6 points and please no disrespect from you, or your write ups. You are a proven winner.
I always read your write ups and look forward to those when you post. I have great respect for your overall knowledge of the players and your percentage of wins.
Read the write up and not swaying my original decision to play Indiana and here is why. Last year Indiana took State into overtime in Mich St. without Verdall Jones playing. Hulls still had 17 points shooting 6-16 and 4-4 from the ft line. Indiana is a very good foul shooting team and Mich St. always plays a very physical game where there is going to be alot of fouls. State shoots a little over 68 percent and last year shot over 74 percent but still went ot. True Mich St will out rebound I just dont think its enough and believe Zeller will still score from the field and from the line.
I dont care if Indiana beat Kent. the point is Indiana plays 40 minutes and not a minute less. Even down 20 with 3 minutes left they still play every minute as evident last year.
Tom Creen is a great coach in my top ten and is a positive motivator,. and has Indiana as a top 20 team when all was lost 4 years ago. He has players who believe in him and themselves and have positive energy from that Kent game that they can win. I will take the 6 points and please no disrespect from you, or your write ups. You are a proven winner.
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