St. Francis opened at +2.5 at home against Chicago State, and since then the line actually went up to +3.5. Now let's not confuse the Red Flash being a good team, but they are 3-3 in Northeast Conf play with 3 of those wins coming in the last 5 games. In their 2 losses during that span, they gave the top 2 teams in the conf all they could handle (LIU and CCST). Clearly seem to be a team on the upswing. Chicago State, meanwhile, is 0-6 in the conference and have won just one game on the road this season. If I was to look at this game on the surface, I'd guess the line would be St. Francis by 4 or so. I see no evidence of injuries. The teams are 356 and 357 ranked teams out of 365, as per Ken Pom.
Maybe something comes out tomorrow that sheds some light on this, but for now I am making a small 0.5 unit bet on St. Francis.
Does anyone else find this line more than a little bit off?
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
St. Francis opened at +2.5 at home against Chicago State, and since then the line actually went up to +3.5. Now let's not confuse the Red Flash being a good team, but they are 3-3 in Northeast Conf play with 3 of those wins coming in the last 5 games. In their 2 losses during that span, they gave the top 2 teams in the conf all they could handle (LIU and CCST). Clearly seem to be a team on the upswing. Chicago State, meanwhile, is 0-6 in the conference and have won just one game on the road this season. If I was to look at this game on the surface, I'd guess the line would be St. Francis by 4 or so. I see no evidence of injuries. The teams are 356 and 357 ranked teams out of 365, as per Ken Pom.
Maybe something comes out tomorrow that sheds some light on this, but for now I am making a small 0.5 unit bet on St. Francis.
Does anyone else find this line more than a little bit off?
Good eye rangersmets. I've been looking for any late injuries and finding none. I can't figure why Chic St is favored either. Stats are almost all close. Chi St if they get to the ft line is a little better,but St Fran should control the boards for more 2nd chances. Wondering if the line is set this way making people think the books know something on Chic and public will be all over Chic. Might be over thinking this but sure does seem strange to me as well. Might have to go with a smaller play on St Fran just to see if I'm over thinking it or I'm just missing something.
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Good eye rangersmets. I've been looking for any late injuries and finding none. I can't figure why Chic St is favored either. Stats are almost all close. Chi St if they get to the ft line is a little better,but St Fran should control the boards for more 2nd chances. Wondering if the line is set this way making people think the books know something on Chic and public will be all over Chic. Might be over thinking this but sure does seem strange to me as well. Might have to go with a smaller play on St Fran just to see if I'm over thinking it or I'm just missing something.
St. Francis opened at +2.5 at home against Chicago State, and since then the line actually went up to +3.5. Now let's not confuse the Red Flash being a good team, but they are 3-3 in Northeast Conf play with 3 of those wins coming in the last 5 games. In their 2 losses during that span, they gave the top 2 teams in the conf all they could handle (LIU and CCST). Clearly seem to be a team on the upswing. Chicago State, meanwhile, is 0-6 in the conference and have won just one game on the road this season. If I was to look at this game on the surface, I'd guess the line would be St. Francis by 4 or so. I see no evidence of injuries. The teams are 356 and 357 ranked teams out of 365, as per Ken Pom. Maybe something comes out tomorrow that sheds some light on this, but for now I am making a small 0.5 unit bet on St. Francis. Does anyone else find this line more than a little bit off?
My line suggests SFU at home should be -2.5 favs vs Chicago St. The fact t
hat they are +2.0 home dogs (overnight lines) in my experience means there is indeed something up. Usually when a peculiar line off by 4 or 4 pts shows up that means Vegas knows something we don't yet. Player issue most likely, not yet listed on web reports.
The prevailing wisdom however is when this occurs it is unwise making ANY bet on either side until we discover the cause. This often means waiting until the game actually starts to see WHO is on the court and on the bench....suggesting LIVE bet or no bet at all.
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Quote Originally Posted by rangersmets:
St. Francis opened at +2.5 at home against Chicago State, and since then the line actually went up to +3.5. Now let's not confuse the Red Flash being a good team, but they are 3-3 in Northeast Conf play with 3 of those wins coming in the last 5 games. In their 2 losses during that span, they gave the top 2 teams in the conf all they could handle (LIU and CCST). Clearly seem to be a team on the upswing. Chicago State, meanwhile, is 0-6 in the conference and have won just one game on the road this season. If I was to look at this game on the surface, I'd guess the line would be St. Francis by 4 or so. I see no evidence of injuries. The teams are 356 and 357 ranked teams out of 365, as per Ken Pom. Maybe something comes out tomorrow that sheds some light on this, but for now I am making a small 0.5 unit bet on St. Francis. Does anyone else find this line more than a little bit off?
My line suggests SFU at home should be -2.5 favs vs Chicago St. The fact t
hat they are +2.0 home dogs (overnight lines) in my experience means there is indeed something up. Usually when a peculiar line off by 4 or 4 pts shows up that means Vegas knows something we don't yet. Player issue most likely, not yet listed on web reports.
The prevailing wisdom however is when this occurs it is unwise making ANY bet on either side until we discover the cause. This often means waiting until the game actually starts to see WHO is on the court and on the bench....suggesting LIVE bet or no bet at all.
Quote Originally Posted by rangersmets: St. Francis opened at +2.5 at home against Chicago State, and since then the line actually went up to +3.5. Now let's not confuse the Red Flash being a good team, but they are 3-3 in Northeast Conf play with 3 of those wins coming in the last 5 games. In their 2 losses during that span, they gave the top 2 teams in the conf all they could handle (LIU and CCST). Clearly seem to be a team on the upswing. Chicago State, meanwhile, is 0-6 in the conference and have won just one game on the road this season. If I was to look at this game on the surface, I'd guess the line would be St. Francis by 4 or so. I see no evidence of injuries. The teams are 356 and 357 ranked teams out of 365, as per Ken Pom. Maybe something comes out tomorrow that sheds some light on this, but for now I am making a small 0.5 unit bet on St. Francis. Does anyone else find this line more than a little bit off? My line suggests SFU at home should be -2.5 favs vs Chicago St. The fact t hat they are +2.0 home dogs (overnight lines) in my experience means there is indeed something up. Usually when a peculiar line off by 4 or 4 pts shows up that means Vegas knows something we don't yet. Player issue most likely, not yet listed on web reports. The prevailing wisdom however is when this occurs it is unwise making ANY bet on either side until we discover the cause. This often means waiting until the game actually starts to see WHO is on the court and on the bench....suggesting LIVE bet or no bet at all.
great advice
Embrace the Grind
1
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by rangersmets: St. Francis opened at +2.5 at home against Chicago State, and since then the line actually went up to +3.5. Now let's not confuse the Red Flash being a good team, but they are 3-3 in Northeast Conf play with 3 of those wins coming in the last 5 games. In their 2 losses during that span, they gave the top 2 teams in the conf all they could handle (LIU and CCST). Clearly seem to be a team on the upswing. Chicago State, meanwhile, is 0-6 in the conference and have won just one game on the road this season. If I was to look at this game on the surface, I'd guess the line would be St. Francis by 4 or so. I see no evidence of injuries. The teams are 356 and 357 ranked teams out of 365, as per Ken Pom. Maybe something comes out tomorrow that sheds some light on this, but for now I am making a small 0.5 unit bet on St. Francis. Does anyone else find this line more than a little bit off? My line suggests SFU at home should be -2.5 favs vs Chicago St. The fact t hat they are +2.0 home dogs (overnight lines) in my experience means there is indeed something up. Usually when a peculiar line off by 4 or 4 pts shows up that means Vegas knows something we don't yet. Player issue most likely, not yet listed on web reports. The prevailing wisdom however is when this occurs it is unwise making ANY bet on either side until we discover the cause. This often means waiting until the game actually starts to see WHO is on the court and on the bench....suggesting LIVE bet or no bet at all.
Only checking the 5 books that covers has up on line movement, Fanduel and Caesars didn't open till this morning, 8am and 10 am. While the other 3 opened around midnight last night. Chicago St did open as a fave last night. Then that funny up and down line movement we've been seeing going on the past two weeks happened. Up a few points and then back down like 5 points. I'm not sure what's up with these funny line movements. Someone's either buying up or down to get a better price or trying to middle the line. Or the books are messing with us. I've seen it going on in the Northeast, Big Sky and the Patriot leagues.
2
Only checking the 5 books that covers has up on line movement, Fanduel and Caesars didn't open till this morning, 8am and 10 am. While the other 3 opened around midnight last night. Chicago St did open as a fave last night. Then that funny up and down line movement we've been seeing going on the past two weeks happened. Up a few points and then back down like 5 points. I'm not sure what's up with these funny line movements. Someone's either buying up or down to get a better price or trying to middle the line. Or the books are messing with us. I've seen it going on in the Northeast, Big Sky and the Patriot leagues.
Interesting, woke up to discover the line has now flipped to St. Francis -2.5
Another possibility - and I have seen this a few times over the years - someone misprinted/mis-attributed the odds......a bonehead input error......it happens......
Then, probably, in the a.m. they corrected the error. ...ie, neither money nor injury news involved.....just correcting a mistaken print.
Anyway, after coming across YOUR thread, I had not handicapped it yet but you brought it to the forum's attention (thanks!) and I believe - LIKE YOU DO - that the value here is on St.Francis. Two struggling teams faceoff, though the homies resume to date seems significantly stronger in their home venue vs a BAD roadie.. Gotta figure almost NO homecourt advantage though, but Chicago State likely to be missing a decent contributor and they really don't seem to like playing on the road even against other bad teams....My money on St.Francis, in what may well be a very CLOSE game... That said, the ball can bounce in mysterious ways and blow up the best laid plans. A cover is not guaranteed...
1
Quote Originally Posted by rangersmets:
Interesting, woke up to discover the line has now flipped to St. Francis -2.5
Another possibility - and I have seen this a few times over the years - someone misprinted/mis-attributed the odds......a bonehead input error......it happens......
Then, probably, in the a.m. they corrected the error. ...ie, neither money nor injury news involved.....just correcting a mistaken print.
Anyway, after coming across YOUR thread, I had not handicapped it yet but you brought it to the forum's attention (thanks!) and I believe - LIKE YOU DO - that the value here is on St.Francis. Two struggling teams faceoff, though the homies resume to date seems significantly stronger in their home venue vs a BAD roadie.. Gotta figure almost NO homecourt advantage though, but Chicago State likely to be missing a decent contributor and they really don't seem to like playing on the road even against other bad teams....My money on St.Francis, in what may well be a very CLOSE game... That said, the ball can bounce in mysterious ways and blow up the best laid plans. A cover is not guaranteed...
Gonna make a half-unit play on St. Bonaventure first half +4.5. Bonnies got some high-end guys and are hungry for a win, and playing at home, so I think they come out hard. Just think the Billies will wear them down over 40 minutes and put the full-game +7.5 in peril.
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Gonna make a half-unit play on St. Bonaventure first half +4.5. Bonnies got some high-end guys and are hungry for a win, and playing at home, so I think they come out hard. Just think the Billies will wear them down over 40 minutes and put the full-game +7.5 in peril.
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Usually when a peculiar line off by 4 or 4 pts shows up that means Vegas knows something we don't yet. Player issue most likely, not yet listed on web reports. 
The prevailing wisdom however is when this occurs it is unwise making 
great advice 
Another possibility - and I have seen this a few times over the years - someone misprinted/mis-attributed the odds......a bonehead input error......it happens......
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