Total bets bad luck : ever happened to you?

 Ever happened to you that you check all the stats , averages from previous games , line movements and all, then you are like , Oh , UNDER makes sense cause these two teams sucks at offense and defense so you bet the under. Then they explode in offensive SOMEHOW. Or the OVER makes sense cause both teams are offensively good but no defense and somehow they keep missing and shooting under 40%. 

@ayashifx55

 Unless you are in the locker room, you really don't know any team motivation.

I used to cap like that. It never worked out. If something don't work, drop it and try something else. 

@Yabbo1979

 Exactly- Its ALOT more complicated than how he says, Step 1 of maybe 20 steps?

agree. 

Yes,that game earlier this year where most everything pointed to the under,then both teams hit like 50% from the 3 and put up 202 total points.

@totter

 If you check Jackston State game yesterday, both bad teams, somehow , they ended the game with 91-100 lol , total was freaking 140 LOL 

@ayashifx55

 I will share some theory with you to steer you down the right path:

Number mean nothing, unless you correlate them to something. Here is tonight game for Villanova versus Proovidence:

Villanova: Possessions Offense 69.10 Possessions Defense:68.34

Providence: Possessions Offense: 74.71 Possessions Defense: 76.08

What do the numbers represent in a vacuum? Nothing Just #'s

Lets break down Villanova Offense:

They average 69.10 Possession on offense. Great! But they have played a schedule of 71.8. So their Offensive Possession Performance is 96.3% of its opponent. Providence gives up 76.1 Defensive Possessions per game. Well, if Villanova Plays to 96.3% of its opponent, I can assume Villanova should be about 73.2 Possessions tonight.

My Point: Performance matters. Using simple average will lead you down the wrong path every time.

& this is just a jump off point. Non-statistical factors matter as well. IF Villanova was missing their point guard tonight, i thin they would play even slower.

You need to factor in REALITVE performance in your causations. This includes Possessions, Points Per Possession....then try a new calculation.

@TJZags598

 wow interesting perspective / numbers ...!! thank you so much 

@ayashifx55