The Reality of Florida Gulf Coast vs Florida

Thats why they are ajusting the lines so dramatically.

Good luck

Anyone know where I can find a replay or link to FGC vs Georgetown??  Georgetown resembles Florida in a lot of ways, I'd like to watch it again to see how Georgetown approached FGC... Will Florida be able to easily use this to gameplan for FGC or is it just a dangerous combination of speed beating efficiency.  The line is clearly shaded, and very heavily shaded, it will take some kind of angle to make this even remotely playable, but they don't give out winners for free.  I'm shocked that the public is on FGC and not sure that I buy it.  Still up in the air on this one but I will the winning side... this line stanks.

If by "squares" you mean syndicates and all the pros who moved the line from 11 to 13, then I guess you're right.

The large majority of bets are on FGCU and the line moved 2 pts the other way. You couldn't be more wrong.

Squares are all over the dog in this one.  

Squares have 4 sharp corners.

I don't see how Gtown resembles Florida??  Florida is much more athletic, they run and shoot the three well. Gtown plays a half court offense and typically solid defense.  Think the big thing is this game is Florida athleticism is much better then Gtown and Sd St.  Think this will slow Gulf Coast down and I'll take Donovan with a week of preparation/motivation

Florida Gulf Coast up to +13.5 at even money now...despite the large proportion of bets on them

To me the term "square" gets thrown around way too often in sports betting but the one situation where I view bets as square is this one. Where people are betting a price (NOT A TEAM) that has been rapidly adjusted based on a very small sample.

If you do that long term you aren't going to win betting sports. And it really doesn't matter if FGC covers or wins tonight (although I hope not as I'm on Florida for a chunk) it just comes down to FGC being a bad bet because the line has been shaded and adjusted too quickly and too much. It's -EV.

public is on gulf coast since when is public sharp

Sports Insights ?@SportsInsights 1h

Money flooding the market pushing #Florida up to -13.5 tonight. 68% of spread bets are taking Florida Gulf Coast and the points.

Sports Insights ?@SportsInsights 4h

While the public has been all over #FGCU as a 13-point underdog, sharp money is on the #Gators tonight. #MarchMadness https://bit.ly/16YAU8f

On this one, myself. GL.

[Quote: Originally Posted by andarmac99] To me the term "square" gets thrown around way too often in sports betting but the one situation where I view bets as square is this one. Where people are betting a price (NOT A TEAM) that has been rapidly adjusted based on a very small sample.

If you do that long term you aren't going to win betting sports. And it really doesn't matter if FGC covers or wins tonight (although I hope not as I'm on Florida for a chunk) it just comes down to FGC being a bad bet because the line has been shaded and adjusted too quickly and too much. It's -EV.

Andarmac

Hey buddy good to see you.

OT from the thread but it just feels like a fav night to me. I bet 70+% dogs but I can't make a case for any of them tonight.

FGC/Florida - Beat this one to death. Even if they don't cover the Gators are the right play from a line standpoint.

Michigan/Kansas - In the big picture this line is actually where it should be. Problem is it's a horrible matchup for Michigan. Their interior weakness was masked in their last 2 games because of the opponent. You don't win this time of year with a soft defense like this. People want to bag Kansas for looking bad so far but take a closer look at the postgame quotes from the WKU game. These guys openly admitted they didn't take the game seriously after the UNC/Kansas matchup was already set before tip. They struggled in the 1st half vs UNC but they missed a ton of point blank shots. they got the looks they wanted they just didn't go in. It was bad luck really. In the 2nd half those shots went down and they pulled away with ease. I don't think anyone is really aware Kansas is on a 12-1 SU and 10-2 ATS run. This team is playing great ball.

Kansas drives to the paint and takes over 70% of their shots from 2pt land. Michigan is very weak on the interior. No reason Kansas won't be able to get good looks in the paint again. On top of that Michigan has no shot blocking presence whatsoever. They have 97 blocks as a team for the whole season! Withey himself has almost 50 more than that and 3 other players have 20+. Kansas has a FR in McLemore but all their other starters are SR and they've been through big games and seen it all. Michigan doesn't have a SR in their Top 6 and half of them are Freshmen. I think that will matter here if Kansas gets on a run in front of a very pro Jayhawks crowd. I'm on Kansas -1.5 for the same chunk as I am Florida.

Oregon/Louisville - Oregon has Freshmen in the backcourt, travels across country and plays the Louisville press in front of a sea of red. Good luck. Oregon is #250 in the country in turnovers per possession. Can't lay it with Louisville because of the move but to me this game is Louisville or nothing.

Michigan St/Duke - Liked Mich St early but everyone seems to be harping on the rebounding edge Michigan St has and while significant after thinking this game over I just have a gut feeling Duke pulls it out. These Seniors for Duke won't go down easy and I don't trust the State guards. Michigan St has huge rebounding edge yes but Duke rarely turns it over and is about 200 spots better in that department which may make up some of the gap. No play here but as each day has passed Duke looks more and more like the play.


Just rambling. GL.

It's usually bad to be on the same side as a very strong public favorite (compared to other games of it's kind) but it's twice as bad to be on a strong public dog.  They're going out of their way to be smart, and most of the time they just aren't.

You can't be serious.

Squares are all over fgcu and the line is going the complete opposite way.  Sharp money sending it -14 now...

No one cares about joe blow money. 

The new squares take dogs all the time now, pseudo sharps, internet squares. Every game they think, this is too many points...

I am truely enjoying this conversation as I have gone back and forth on this game several times today. 

I'm with you.

This game really is a head-scratcher for the ages.

That said, I really don't think you can always bet from andarmarc's perspective of finding the value.  I think that approach is more for ML sports, baseball and hockey.  Often time I look for spots where the line is clearly off, and most of the time I take what looks to clearly be the 'wrong' side.  The WRONG side wins all the time, that's where those big lavish hotels come from.  FGC is the wrong side, completely undervalued... but that is what makes me love them.

That said, the # of people on FGC makes me really feel that this line simply can be justifie by the fact that it is a whopping 14 points in a sweet 16 game.  I am on Florida, but I am by no means confident   1st half for me.  FGC can win by simply bringing more energy -- unfortunately, by now I really don't think that will be the case, Florida will not overlook this team and gets to review the tape on the past two FGC wins to see what they want to do or not do in this game.

Because they can take all the $20 bets on FCGU they want, the big money controls the line