The Reality of Florida Gulf Coast vs Florida

This game has nothing to do with what happens on the court.

Anyone betting FGC in this game is buying them at an extreme high. Most power ratings have Florida about 6 points better than Georgetown and yet we have the same line here for FGC as they had against Georgetown. So two games has caused a 6 point adjustment in their power rating? No way. That is crazy. Massive overreaction.

If this game was 6 days ago Florida would be close to a 20 point favorite. There is no way, shape or form that a power rating is going to change 6 points in this short of a period of time at this juncture of the season. If Aaron Rodgers went down they would not adjust the Packers power rating by 6 points.

Would anyone here take Michigan -4, Kansas -8, Indiana -11.5 etc this weekend? Because that is what a bet on FGC is doing. Maybe the rating was wrong that's a valid argument but moving it 6 points after two games against two teams with holes is extreme.

Maybe people betting FGC luck out and cover I don't know but this is an awful bet. You are committing both cardinal sins in sports betting: You are buying high and you are behind the curve. This is the very definition of a square bet and honestly anyone betting FGC deserves to lose. Making this bet is huge -EV long term. It's Florida or nothing.

GL.

Agreed kinda like my opinion on michigan the first round and secong round! Not quite the same but same idea but low! Florida or nothing!

If power ratings were spot on we would all be rich and it would not be called gambling. It is easy when comparing the "big" schools and asking would you take IU -11.5? Of course not. It is easy to see that is a bad line. Does not mean that IU wont win by that margin but you wouldn't want to lay that bad number.

Now on to FGC. A school that small is so much harder to apply a power rating to because they don't play like competion on a regular basis. These ratings are much more of a guess on these schools. You are not comparing apples to apples.

Of course those two teams had holes. Those holes became apparant when FGC exploited them. I did not hear too many people talking holes with Gtown when they were looked at as a possible number one seed. Every team has holes, heck Florida has as many hole as any of the top teams. They looked great vs a very weak SEC group and not so good against the better out of conference teams. See AZ and KSU games.

To be honest I thought the number would be more like 9 but the man that sets the number figured too much action would go to the big fav becasue it was under 10. I love the big number on a team that has a chance to win. Don't forget all the pressure is on the big State school playing one of its satellite schools.

Remember to trust your eyes. VCU was doing the same thing a few years back and no one wanted to believe what they were watching. Just my take. Good luck

Good points here - Small play on FGC for me

Florida is going to tear them a new A-hole.  With the long break, FGCU will not be taking Florida by surprise.  They got the coaching and players to shut down anything FGCU wants to do. 

By the end of the game the cameras are going to be focused on Einfeld's wife more than the game because that game is going to get ugly.

Wow you sure changed my mind with that indepth breakdown. 

great insight  from both parties... I think that FGC is being seriously disrespected here... Kinda like the Ravens or G. Mason on their runs... this team relishes in their underdog status ; why not take the points and enjoy the fighting birds of Prey ??

Lotta love for FGCU right now ans rightly so. These kids earned it n playing with big hearts

Great points andarmac, gotta know the books are taking advantage of Joe Public right now who wants to bet FGCU. 

The fortunate part is Joe Public wins sometimes... If the public lost every match there would be no reason to bet IMHO  bol

My take on this game is you cannot simply look at power ratings and how much better one team is on a point scale. This is simply because teams catch fire and play above their implied potential indicated by a power rating. In the regular season I would say FL -13 is a great bet but this FGC plays fundamental basketball too well and plays too well together for you to lay this many points to them.

Just remember that if you take the Minny game out of the equation, (where they shot an unreal percentage in the 1st half that probably cannot be duplicated again) that Florida ended the season on a slump where they werent playing their best basketball. I think anyone on FL -13 should beware as this is going to be a very tough battle for them

Power Rating like Hollinger NBA POWER RATING is a joke,

Florida is a better team than FGC is every aspect ,the question is can they cover the current - 13 spread ?

Nobody knows until we see the final score.

Goodluck Andy !   

Nah.

Power ratings are are just that: ratings. They mean crap when you step on the court. Sure, it would appear Florida should dominate the game, and they very well may. However, you are using regular season numbers for a Sweet 16 game. That in itself is a cardinal sin. Momentum can trump any stats you wanna bring to the table, and FGC has all the momentum.....

Squares usually dont take the dog. Squares see Florida at only -11 when the line should be -18 or 19....and what do they do? Pound Florida all the way up to -13.....

This game has everything to do with what happens on the court, thats were you went wrong from the start.

mac99

Both sides of this play  seem square if thats possible.

The problem with your argument is the majority of bets placed are on Florida Gulf, not Florida.  So the line moving up would be attributed to the sharps.  The public is backing Florida Gulf.  71% of bets on them and 97% on the ML.  We don't know the amounts wagered but the consensus is pretty clear, although obviously the ML percentage is going to be that high because it's not profitable to wager the Florida ML without reducing juice through a parlay.

That's really odd.  RLM on the favorite?

People Wanted to believe this versus San Diego State it was several players top plays I think that Florida Gulf Coast is just a good team and they can run with Florida

If power ratings were spot on we would all be rich and it would not be called gambling.

Of course they are not going to be spot on but they are definitely a baseline and they rarely move like this at this point in the season because of a couple of games. Thing is I don't really believe they have moved that much. What the books have had to adjust for is perception. Everybody loves FGC and they are forced to adjust the line accordingly in a very short period of time. This is what I call hyper line inflation where people overreact to a large degree based on one or two games.

It is easy when comparing the "big" schools and asking would you take IU -11.5? Of course not. It is easy to see that is a bad line. Does not mean that IU wont win by that margin but you wouldn't want to lay that bad number.

That's exactly my point. What difference does it make if it's a big school or a small school? A bad, inflated line is always going to be a bad, inflated line. And it does not matter one bit whether or not FGC covers or even wins. The point is betting inflated lines based on small, recent samples is a long term recipe for disaster. I know 90% of people reading this either don't get the long term picture or don't care but there is nothing more important than getting good numbers and not buying high and betting on overreactions.

Now on to FGC. A school that small is so much harder to apply a power rating to because they don't play like competion on a regular basis. These ratings are much more of a guess on these schools.

I believe the books have comprehensive ratings on all teams. They need to build that base so when postseason comes and they release lines on smaller conferences they know they are putting out a fairly accurate line. They can't afford to guess on anything. They need to be relatively accurate or they lose.

Don't forget all the pressure is on the big State school playing one of its satellite schools.

I could argue this point. Last week no one had heard of FGC and they could sneak up and play loose and free. Now everyone knows who they are, how they play, and most casual fans and even bettors are rooting for them. They are holding rallies and chanting F Florida. For a double digit favorite I actually think the Gators don't have that much pressure on them. All eyes and hearts are on FGC this time.

GL.

This is largely why the line is where it is. There's a lot of people rooting for this team and why not throw some money on them? People love underdogs like this.

I disagree. If you bet on overreactions and line swings like this over a period of time you'll end up in the poorhouse fairly quicky no matter what the sport. The price is always more important than what happens on the court/field/rink. Continually buying high is the death of many a sports bettor.

I'd bet my left nut that "squares" didn't pound that opener up to -13. Why throw out a -18/19 when they can get the same FGC money at 13?

GL Train.

Andar

"I'd bet my left nut that "squares" didn't pound that opener up to -13. Why throw out a -18/19 when they can get the same FGC money at 13?"

No way in hell would anyone be taking Florida at -19. The simple fact is they arent playing as well toward the end of the season as they did during the middle of it. They'd have to hold FGC to 58-60 in order to cover that number and very slim chance that happens IMO.

"I actually think the Gators don't have that much pressure on them. All eyes and hearts are on FGC this time."

Really? You think the Gators dont have much pressure on them in this game? They are facing a very inspired and high confidence team that they know won't lay down and they are expected to dominate based on who they are. I think they have more pressure on them than any team left in the tourney.
 

i'm in Florida and my book has 75% of his action on Florida he had to take down his money line because it was getting pounded...so he claims.

People were pounding a -600 ML

Hell, He should have passed out fliers trying to get more people to pound that ML

Andy...Curious to know what you think the final score would be.

I think 74-52.  Really liking the under here.

 

FGC didn't have many spread games this year so the odds makers didn't have a lot to go by when they made the lines on there games, program has only been going a couple of years so there is not much of a backround to identify with. They have only had 6 games that there was a spread for this season, they are 6-0 vs the spread, the year before they were 3-0 vs the spread. I just really think odds makers do not have enough data to make a real proper spread. In every game the Gators have won they have won by double digits so 13 my seem like a lot but it does follow the Gators pattern.