The clash tonight in Freedom Hall has extensive implications in the race for the Big East regular season championship, the Big East tournament, and the NCAA tournament. A Notre Dame win would give the Irish a clear shot at what would be at least a tie for the regular season championship and, depending on what Hibbert and co. do the rest of the way, a chance at an outright title. Not bad for a team picked ninth by the coaches in the pre-season.
For Louisville, a victory on Thursday would be one more notch on what has been a vicious row of games in the latter half of the Cardinals' Big East schedule. Following a soft three game stretch, the Cards played at Connecticut, Rutgers at home, at Marquette, Georgetown at home, at DePaul, at Providence, Syracuse at home, and at Pittsburgh. Thursday's game against the Irish will be followed with a visit from Villanova at Freedom Hall and a season-ending battle against Georgetown in D. C. Louisville drew brutal schedules in its first two years in the Big East, and this year is no different.
The battle on which everyone will be focusing - and ESPN will be ramming down your throats again and again and again - will be Harangody/Padgett. These two big white boys are the figurative eyes of the hurricane for both teams. Louisville runs everything through its wily and intuitive center. Padgett is an exceptional passer out of the post, and he's got a really nice turnaround hook that gets him four or five baskets a game. Harangody is the player that, as an opposing fan, you hate with all your guts, but you'd give just about anything to have him on your side. Within eight feet of the basket, he is an absolute bear.
Padgett is prone to foul trouble, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Derrick Caracter log a significant amount of time. The Caracter/Gody match-up is the one to which I'm most looking forward, as it pits two guys who are virtual mirrors of one another in size, age, and raw ability, yet polar opposites in hustle and basketball IQ. If Derrick had half of Luke's knowledge of the game and instincts, he'd be an All-American. He doesn't.
I would look for Harangody to get his usual 20 and 10. He had his way last year in South Bend with the UL post defense, but this is a more mature Louisville team with more weapons and looks to throw at Luuuke. Padgett has been playing very well in the last seven games or so, and this should be a fun match-up to watch, as long as you can stand the WorldWideLeader slobbering over both guys every time they touch the ball.
Speaking of mirror images, I've been convinced all year that Kyle McAlarney and Jerry Smith are the same person, and that this mysterious Kyle Smith undergoes a Michael Jackson-like skin operation in-between games. You might not even see them playing at the same time; there will be a special dermatologist on hand just for this game in the Freedom Hall locker rooms. Both very good shooters, both about 6'2" with a similar build, both very smart, both very consistent...
This is the match-up to watch. McAlarney is a slightly better shooter, while Smith probably has a step on McAlarney and is a little bit better defender. Other than that, they have very similar skill sets, and I would imagine that Pitino is going to tell Smith (and his lovably tenacious freshman back-up, native Kentuckian Preston Knowles) to stick to McAlarney like flies on dung after Kyle's performance on Sunday, while Brey will undoubtedly have ND's defense keep Jerry on the back of their collective minds at all times.
Before I wrote this, I asked myself, "Where does Notre Dame have a significant advantage?" All year long, Tory Jackson has been willing the Irish to victory with one gutsy performance after another. In a conference full of very good point guards, he is among the best. He's neither a dead-eye shooter like Scottie Reynolds nor an elite penetrator ala A. J. Price, but he can do enough of both to keep any defense on its heels. He will be key for Brey's squad in Freedom Hall, as he needs to penetrate the aggressive Louisville match-up zone (and the occasional man that Pitino will mix in). He's even more important in attacking the Cardinal press, as he is really the only superb ball-handler the Irish have. KMac and Jonathon Peoples can also handle it, but I wouldn't want either of them taking it up again and again against Pitino's patented press. It is imperative that he stays out of foul trouble on Thursday night; I've watched enough of UL's press to know that it can eat teams alive, especially late in the game, that lose their primary ball-handler.
Tory will be battling a combination of junior Andre McGee and sophomore Edgar Sosa. McGee has given consistent, if unheralded, contribution to the Cardinals night in and night out. He doesn't have the ability to explode like Sosa, but he is a good three-point shooter and a solid defender. The "Little Tiger" that is Edgar Sosa has more peaks and valleys than a winter South Bend road; he is an emotional headcase, but he has the raw ability to be an elite point guard. He can go for 28 like last year's NCAA tournament game against Texas A&M, or he can disappear like he did time and again earlier in the season.
The biggest problem that the Irish will face, both literally and figuratively, is at the two forward positions. When the talking heads gush about Louisville's athleticism, these are the two positions they are talking about. At 6'6", Terrence Williams is built like a tight end and can jump like a gazelle.