2-0 yesterday. Had a light week, but a decent one at 4-1. Nice little 4-0 ML parlay streak to enter the weekend. Knock on wood though, because last week I took a 14-1 streak into Saturday, and then I think I went 1-4 on them or something ridiculous like that.
Very behind today in terms of locking things in, but I do have a few that I grabbed last night:
Colorado State -2 UNC PK
Long Beach State -5
I pretty much have an idea of what else I want to play, but just gotta trim the leans down into actual plays. And I pretty much know which ML parlay teams I want, I just haven't constructed the PLs yet.
More plays, and thoughts, to come.
GOOD LUCK TODAY ALL!
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
299-243-11
2-0 yesterday. Had a light week, but a decent one at 4-1. Nice little 4-0 ML parlay streak to enter the weekend. Knock on wood though, because last week I took a 14-1 streak into Saturday, and then I think I went 1-4 on them or something ridiculous like that.
Very behind today in terms of locking things in, but I do have a few that I grabbed last night:
Colorado State -2 UNC PK
Long Beach State -5
I pretty much have an idea of what else I want to play, but just gotta trim the leans down into actual plays. And I pretty much know which ML parlay teams I want, I just haven't constructed the PLs yet.
NW doesnt have the talent or the composure to win close games, and anyone with decent size will convert rebounds against the wildcats. ohio state converted an insane 65% of their offensive rebounds the other night. obviously a much bigger team than iowa, by far, but iowa is still decent on the glass and outrebounded them by 6 in the first time they met, when they lost by 20ish. NW is #322 in the COUNTRY at offensive rebounding efficiency, and #309 in the country at defensive. John Sherna deserves an NCAA tournament, but he's not going to get it with this team's inability to win close games and their horrible rebounding numbers.
matt gatens has been an ENORMOUS boost for iowa as of late. he's put up 20 or more in 4 of his last 5 games, and has shot the 3 ball 27/41 across those 5 games. northwestern has pretty poor length and perimeter defense, and they're already an awful road team. theyve only won 3 road games for christ's sake: georgia tech, illinois, penn state.
for some reason unbeknownst to me, lots of people think that northwestern can still get in the big dance. i disagree. the selection committee doesnt care how close you get in games if you blow every opportunity to win them. a loss is still a loss. heard this on an espn podcast: northwestern has had 6 games this year decided with 10 seconds or less, and theyve lost all 6 of them.
dont like them coming off that incredibly deflating Ohio State loss, which i'm guessing was on senior night, against an iowa team that has been on a tear and is not great, but still good (13-5) in their own building. northwestern cant afford to let that ohio state loss devastate them, and I dont think they will....but Carmody has been there for 11 years now, and in all 11, they've missed the big dance. im expecting it again. theyre just not good enough and they're an awful rebounding team and an awful road team. kind of a bad spot too.
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strong lean on iowa
NW doesnt have the talent or the composure to win close games, and anyone with decent size will convert rebounds against the wildcats. ohio state converted an insane 65% of their offensive rebounds the other night. obviously a much bigger team than iowa, by far, but iowa is still decent on the glass and outrebounded them by 6 in the first time they met, when they lost by 20ish. NW is #322 in the COUNTRY at offensive rebounding efficiency, and #309 in the country at defensive. John Sherna deserves an NCAA tournament, but he's not going to get it with this team's inability to win close games and their horrible rebounding numbers.
matt gatens has been an ENORMOUS boost for iowa as of late. he's put up 20 or more in 4 of his last 5 games, and has shot the 3 ball 27/41 across those 5 games. northwestern has pretty poor length and perimeter defense, and they're already an awful road team. theyve only won 3 road games for christ's sake: georgia tech, illinois, penn state.
for some reason unbeknownst to me, lots of people think that northwestern can still get in the big dance. i disagree. the selection committee doesnt care how close you get in games if you blow every opportunity to win them. a loss is still a loss. heard this on an espn podcast: northwestern has had 6 games this year decided with 10 seconds or less, and theyve lost all 6 of them.
dont like them coming off that incredibly deflating Ohio State loss, which i'm guessing was on senior night, against an iowa team that has been on a tear and is not great, but still good (13-5) in their own building. northwestern cant afford to let that ohio state loss devastate them, and I dont think they will....but Carmody has been there for 11 years now, and in all 11, they've missed the big dance. im expecting it again. theyre just not good enough and they're an awful rebounding team and an awful road team. kind of a bad spot too.
absolutely crucial game for colorado state. if they win this game, they're still on the bubble, but they lose this game, they're clearly off of it. they know the ramifications of a loss, and if they lose at air force today, it will be their worst loss of the season.
colorado state has been pretty bad against good teams. 8 of their 10 losses are against teams that are KenPom top 100. The losses at TCU and Boise are still excusable. but they've still beaten the teams they've supposed to beat. and Air Force has lost 10 of their last 12, and they lost their coach about 2 or 3 weeks ago because of his attitude
all the espn analysts bitch about colorado state being a bad road team. i just punched the numbers: Colorado State is just 2-9 on the road this season....but those 9 teams they've lost to have a combined 126-19 record at home. just insane. obviously, all the teams they've played are VERY good at home
and air force has more losses at home than all 9 of those teams. they're clearly beatable, and are in flux without a coach, and pretty much have nothing to play for. on the contrary, colorado state has everything to lose in this game, and they know it. gimme that road chalk.
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absolutely crucial game for colorado state. if they win this game, they're still on the bubble, but they lose this game, they're clearly off of it. they know the ramifications of a loss, and if they lose at air force today, it will be their worst loss of the season.
colorado state has been pretty bad against good teams. 8 of their 10 losses are against teams that are KenPom top 100. The losses at TCU and Boise are still excusable. but they've still beaten the teams they've supposed to beat. and Air Force has lost 10 of their last 12, and they lost their coach about 2 or 3 weeks ago because of his attitude
all the espn analysts bitch about colorado state being a bad road team. i just punched the numbers: Colorado State is just 2-9 on the road this season....but those 9 teams they've lost to have a combined 126-19 record at home. just insane. obviously, all the teams they've played are VERY good at home
and air force has more losses at home than all 9 of those teams. they're clearly beatable, and are in flux without a coach, and pretty much have nothing to play for. on the contrary, colorado state has everything to lose in this game, and they know it. gimme that road chalk.
i dont really have anything useful to add about UNC. everyone pretty much knows these teams. tar heels are obviously going to be playing with a vengance, and they've got too much size for this duke team, and duke is clearly beatable in cameron. it's entirely possible duke sweeps for the 2nd year in a row, but theyre reallyyyyyyyy gonna need to be knocking down 3s.
i really, really like southern methodist, but don't know if i can pull the trigger based on these teams prior history. UTEP has won 17 of the last 18 matchups. yikes. but this is a really winnable game for SMU, in a game that they match up well in, and UTEP is
pretty awful on the road. i have a feeling that this is the game the public gets slaughered on, i sit the sidelines on, and then i say to myself "oh i called it!" haha
adding: TCU +2
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i dont really have anything useful to add about UNC. everyone pretty much knows these teams. tar heels are obviously going to be playing with a vengance, and they've got too much size for this duke team, and duke is clearly beatable in cameron. it's entirely possible duke sweeps for the 2nd year in a row, but theyre reallyyyyyyyy gonna need to be knocking down 3s.
i really, really like southern methodist, but don't know if i can pull the trigger based on these teams prior history. UTEP has won 17 of the last 18 matchups. yikes. but this is a really winnable game for SMU, in a game that they match up well in, and UTEP is
pretty awful on the road. i have a feeling that this is the game the public gets slaughered on, i sit the sidelines on, and then i say to myself "oh i called it!" haha
Why you like st Louis? Been on the boarder with georgia since last night.
yeah i like them both to win but i don't feel safe for the cover. really the only motivation that saint louis has is to not hurt their seeding; but they got a wake up call last saturday when they lost at URI that they can still be beaten by lesser teams on the road, and theyve got a target on their back. i read a ton of quotes about duquesne being disappointed in their season, and just lacking confidence and energy right now. i really like majerus as a coach, and he's delivered so much consistency this season to st louis, and they really play smart basketball and dont do anything wrong. a pretty experienced basketball team that's good on the road, just so solid defenively, theyre not huge but duquesne is an awful rebounding team and they'll need a monster effort today to beat st louis.i dont think st louis will slip up again like they did last saturday
georgia's been playing better as of late, less that kentucky game, and USC's shown theyre the worst team in the conference and are even more pathetic on the road. a revenge game here after a 1 point loss @ usc (1 of only 2 conference wins for the gamecocks), on senior day, at home, i feel safe w/ the bulldogs here
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Quote Originally Posted by jshep:
Why you like st Louis? Been on the boarder with georgia since last night.
yeah i like them both to win but i don't feel safe for the cover. really the only motivation that saint louis has is to not hurt their seeding; but they got a wake up call last saturday when they lost at URI that they can still be beaten by lesser teams on the road, and theyve got a target on their back. i read a ton of quotes about duquesne being disappointed in their season, and just lacking confidence and energy right now. i really like majerus as a coach, and he's delivered so much consistency this season to st louis, and they really play smart basketball and dont do anything wrong. a pretty experienced basketball team that's good on the road, just so solid defenively, theyre not huge but duquesne is an awful rebounding team and they'll need a monster effort today to beat st louis.i dont think st louis will slip up again like they did last saturday
georgia's been playing better as of late, less that kentucky game, and USC's shown theyre the worst team in the conference and are even more pathetic on the road. a revenge game here after a 1 point loss @ usc (1 of only 2 conference wins for the gamecocks), on senior day, at home, i feel safe w/ the bulldogs here
i kind of like WVU here. USF has been on an absolute tear defensively...i think they've held opponents to under 38% in the last 5 games or something like that. but WVU can create points in many ways, i just think WVU matches up well here, theyll take USF seriously, and USF's hot streak gets killed dead in its tracks today. they still cannot freaking score. but im not goign to call USF's bluff here...they keep proving they're the real deal, and there's large bubble implications for both teams....yikes! want no part of it. ill be rooting for USF though
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Quote Originally Posted by monkeymark5:
sloop what do you think about south florida -1.5?
i kind of like WVU here. USF has been on an absolute tear defensively...i think they've held opponents to under 38% in the last 5 games or something like that. but WVU can create points in many ways, i just think WVU matches up well here, theyll take USF seriously, and USF's hot streak gets killed dead in its tracks today. they still cannot freaking score. but im not goign to call USF's bluff here...they keep proving they're the real deal, and there's large bubble implications for both teams....yikes! want no part of it. ill be rooting for USF though
i kind of like WVU here. USF has been on an absolute tear defensively...i think they've held opponents to under 38% in the last 5 games or something like that. but WVU can create points in many ways, i just think WVU matches up well here, theyll take USF seriously, and USF's hot streak gets killed dead in its tracks today. they still cannot freaking score. but im not goign to call USF's bluff here...they keep proving they're the real deal, and there's large bubble implications for both teams....yikes! want no part of it. ill be rooting for USF though
just read this again and didnt like what i wrote. definitely was giving too much credit to WVU offensively. a lot of the time they are awful against good defenses, and they are entirely too reliant on kevin jones. and they're a bad 3-point shooting team and they miss free throws. what i mean to say was pretty much what i just read from a huggins quote:
South Florida hasn't allowed an opponent to shoot better than 34.6 percent from the floor since a Feb. 4 loss to Georgetown. Does that worry coach Bob Huggins? “Honest to God's truth, we're used to shooting it bad,” Huggins said. “I don't think that will affect us much. We're used to manufacturing points in other ways.”
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Quote Originally Posted by sloop703:
i kind of like WVU here. USF has been on an absolute tear defensively...i think they've held opponents to under 38% in the last 5 games or something like that. but WVU can create points in many ways, i just think WVU matches up well here, theyll take USF seriously, and USF's hot streak gets killed dead in its tracks today. they still cannot freaking score. but im not goign to call USF's bluff here...they keep proving they're the real deal, and there's large bubble implications for both teams....yikes! want no part of it. ill be rooting for USF though
just read this again and didnt like what i wrote. definitely was giving too much credit to WVU offensively. a lot of the time they are awful against good defenses, and they are entirely too reliant on kevin jones. and they're a bad 3-point shooting team and they miss free throws. what i mean to say was pretty much what i just read from a huggins quote:
South Florida hasn't allowed an opponent to shoot better than 34.6 percent from the floor since a Feb. 4 loss to Georgetown. Does that worry coach Bob Huggins? “Honest to God's truth, we're used to shooting it bad,” Huggins said. “I don't think that will affect us much. We're used to manufacturing points in other ways.”
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