Everyone will be focused on the NFL today and the linesmakers have perhaps thrown us a bone here with the short line of S. Illinois -3.5 . Advanced stats have this game pegged around a S.Ill 6-7 point win. So why is this line a few points below that? Well the only thing that can be giving Evansville a boost today would be they are getting their best player back in butler transfer Connor Turnbull, who has missed the last 4 games with a knee injury. Does it matter that much? Not really because Evansville is still 2-11 with him starting , and since conference play Turnbulls stats have significantly dropped off in many categories. Turnbull stands at 6'10 225. He will be matched with S.Ill top 100 rebounder in the nation Rolyns Aligbe at 6'9 240lb. His backup is 6'11 270, followed by a 7fter. So S.Ill has the manpower and strength to matchup well with Turnbull.
Apart from their best player coming back, Evansville doesnt have much else going for them. They sport an abysmal offense, ranked in the bottom 30 of d1 , and a very mediocre to bad defense. S. Ill is not the greatest either, with a medicore offense, but their bright spot is their defense, ranked #74. The defense will be the factor which propels S.Ill to the victory here. Evansville is one of the worst teams in d1 for field goal attempt rate (ranked 355th in the country) and potential quick points allowed off of steals (349th). S.Ill will feast on these turnovers. These 2 teams also have an opposite tempo of play, as S.Ill prefers a faster pace (#62) vs Evans slower pace (#264). This favors S.Ill in causing havoc and disruption to the flow of Evans offense.
The worst spot of the S.Ill offense is their 3pt shooting. It sucks. But guess what, they shoot the lowest amount of 3pters of any team compared to 2pters in d1. So the 3pt shooting is not really a factor. They feast on the inside. Their best part of their offense is their midrange game. They are #27 in the country shooting over 44% from midrange. And guess what is Evansvilles biggest weakness? Their midrange defense (ranked #340 giving up around 44%) . So this plays right into S.Ills hand. I can also see this getting Evans big men in trouble. That dude Connor Turnbull has been in foul trouble in 5 out of his last 6 games played.
S.Ill has shown us it has flashes of being a decent team, as a few weeks ago they went on the road and beat a solid Belmont team (ranked #64), a game in which they were predicted to lose by 10. Evansville is predicted to lose by 20 to belmont when they play in a few weeks. Who has Evansville beat this year? Their best win is vs #190 oregon state, a game which they were predicted to lose as well. This Evansville team sucks so much that they were literally predicted to win 1 GAME ALL YEAR! There is not a single game left in their season that they should win. This one is no different. The look ahead line for when these teams play again in 2 weeks in Illinois is for them to lose by 13. So youre telling me that the home court advantage in snowy Illinois right now with about 300 people inside a high school gym is enough to warrant a 10 point swing ??? Im not buying it.
S.Illinois is very predictable, as they rank #6 in consistency, which means they will typically do what the stats say. All the stats say this will be a 6pt+ win.
Take it to the bank.
S. Illinois -3.5
well 
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