Pepperdine @ UCLA discussion/analysis

YTD: 2-0, +7.00 units
UCLA: 2-0, +7.00 units

Hey guys, just wanted to get a discussion going about my UCLA Bruins and their game against Pepperdine tonight. Looks like I'm in the minority tonight of leaning UCLA -17.5 ... not sure if I want to make it a play yet, but I'm not seeing all the Pepperdine love? This UCLA team is a completely different and much more talented squad than last year's team, and Howland finally agreed to let the Bruins run the floor given the talent of this team. Pepperdine finished the year terribly last year (ended their regular season on a 0-9 ATS run) and basically brings back every single player from that team. I've read some quotes from Pepperdine players this year talking about how they are going to try to get their big men going early in this game, but I'm not sure how successful that will be against Lane, Nelson, Smith, and especially Stover with his length on the defensive end?

I mean this Pepperdine team played a bad, bad UCLA team last year at UCLA and lost by 19.... and that UCLA team barely played Reeves Nelson any minutes and also got 27 minutes from their walk-on PG Mustafa Abdul Hamid. What is different this year that would lead the same Pepperdine team to cover 17.5 against a much, much improved UCLA squad? What am I not seeing here guys?

I also lean OVER given that UCLA will be one of the higher paced teams in the land this year (provided everyone stays healthy.) I think this number is a tad low for that and reflects that the books haven't fully adjusted their lines based on previous years' data.

Let's talk about this game and find the winning side/total. Curious as to everyone else's thoughts as always...

Your boys get caught looking to Kansas.

Good luck Kap  

Without having looked too much into this game, I absolutely am in love with the over.  UCLA is going to run, run, run, and I think Pepperdine will want to run with them. 

Looking ahead to the Kansas game which is like 17 days away on December 2, 2010?  I dunno about that, I respect the lookahead angle, but is it really applicable in this spot?

Thanks amd -- saw you were leaning Pepperdine in your thread, care to chime in here and let me in on what I am not seeing?

 

Kansas is kansas. Pepperdine was very young last season lets not forget that also and they have a talented group of experience back. I understand were talking about Pepperdine but this line should be closer to 14.

Bruins are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games following a S.U. win.

I don't think the mighty Waves will have the Bruins attention for the entire game. A nice little ambush at the end should keep the margin of victory around a backers dozen...

Best of luck kap....

That 2-12 ATS stat is a scary looking one without a doubt, phat. But this year's UCLA team surely appears, from everything that I can tell, to be a completely different squad than last year's group of underachievers. I'm not sure how much weight to give historical stats like.  Appreciate the input though, phat. No worry about Pepperdine's terrible ATS record down the stretch?

Kap when the line moved down to UCLA -16.5 at betus I bought it down to -15 in a small parlay.  I hope it hits.  BOL!

I dunno if there's a ton of value left in the OVER, it went from 144.5 to 147 in like 1.5 hours... yikes!

i can't believe Howland is gonna run all year because that's not how he has had success in his career

He's actually a lot more adaptable than people given him credit, Warner... his teams at Northern Arizona were one of the fastest pace teams in the country and shot a bucketload of 3s during his time there because that's was the way to best utilize the talents of his personnel.... I think that's what we are going to see from UCLA this year, a pushing of the tempo because we have the athletes now to do it successfully.

T minus 8 hours till gametime!

I'm taking...

UCLA (1H) -10 (-110), 2.2 to win 2 -- I think UCLA comes out of the gates quick on this one just like they have for every single game so far this year. I'm trying to potentially guard against a backdoor cover by going 1H at this point, hate seeing bets lose because back-ups drill lucky meaningless 3's at the ends of games. UCLA has more talent, better coaching, and an edge to them this year that has not been there the last 2 years.

  on it with you..

any thoughts on St Mary's/St John's, St marys lost a large chunk of their squad last season playing against a vertaran st johns, but at 11pm/ 2 am st johns time...... ??

What a strange start time or that St. Mary's/St. John's game. I hate Steve Lavin so I could never back that squad unless I was supremely confident.

Kap

Good to hear from you my friend!  I was leaning UCLA last night.  Is Pacific any good?  Nevada has their most athletic team ever, but 9 news guys and only 1 returning player with any experience.

Kap what do you think about the 1H over at 69? I already placed the bet but I just wanted to read your opinion on it

GL tonight Kap

Hey hoopsprof, long time no see

No idea about Nevada or UOP unfortunately, haven't been able to do the necessary research for this college year outside of my UCLA Bruins

If I were going to play a 1H total I'd be on the OVER as well. UCLA has really pushed the pace offensively this year right out of the gates, and I would not be surprised to see Pepperdine be perfectly fine with running as well. Decent shooting percentages should get that over

BOL on your -10

LIKING THE POINTS BRO!!!