NCAAB ‘26 : 2-1 (write ups included)

Play: UC Santa Barbara -2.5 

We’re backing UC Santa Barbara because the efficiency gap in this matchup is significant. The Gauchos are one of the better shooting teams in the country, connecting at nearly 40% from three and grading out well above UC Davis in overall shot quality. UC Davis struggles defending the perimeter, and that’s a dangerous flaw against a UCSB offense that spaces the floor and consistently generates clean looks.

The second major edge is on the glass. UCSB finishes possessions at a high level defensively, limiting second chances. That’s important because UC Davis’ best path to staying competitive is through pressure, hustle, and extra possessions. If the Gauchos rebound at their usual rate, they can neutralize that advantage.

Turnovers are the one concern. UC Davis applies real ball pressure and looks to speed teams up, so UCSB must stay composed. However, when this game settles into half-court offense, UCSB clearly owns the efficiency advantage from two, three, and the free-throw line.

UCSB X-Factor: Aidan Mahaney
Mahaney is the engine. He’s the primary shot-maker and late-game closer, and this matchup suits him perfectly against a UC Davis defense that allows strong perimeter efficiency. If Mahaney controls tempo and converts on clean looks, UCSB’s offense reaches another level.

This comes down to efficiency vs chaos. UC Davis needs turnovers and extra possessions to flip the math. If UCSB protects the ball at even an average level, their shooting efficiency and rebounding discipline should decide the game.

Projection: UC Santa Barbara 77 UC Davis 71

Play: Stony Brook -2.5

We’re backing Stony Brook because the model gives them clear edges in defensive efficiency, rebounding control, and overall shot quality.

Defensively, Stony Brook consistently limits opponents’ effective field-goal percentage and forces long, uncomfortable possessions. Monmouth struggles to score efficiently in the half court, and that’s where this matchup tilts heavily toward the Seawolves.

When the pace slows, Stony Brook’s structure and discipline show up.
On the glass, Stony Brook has the advantage. They finish defensive possessions at a strong rate and limit second-chance points, which removes one of Monmouth’s main paths to staying competitive.

Controlling rebounds also allows Stony Brook to dictate tempo, keeping the game in a range that favors them.

Offensively, Stony Brook doesn’t need to be flashy. They take better shots, protect their margins, and convert more reliably at the free-throw line, which is crucial in a game expected to stay tight into the second half.

X-Factor :

Erik Pratt is the difference-maker in this matchup. He provides Stony Brook with a steady offensive engine who can score efficiently, create when possessions break down, and keep the offense organized. Against a Monmouth defense that can be stretched by disciplined guard play, Pratt’s ability to control tempo and deliver in key moments gives Stony Brook a real closing edge.

Final Take

This is a control game, and Stony Brook is built to control it. With advantages in defense, rebounding, and execution plus a reliable closer in Erik Pratt, the model points to the Seawolves getting the win.

Projection: Stony Brook 71, Monmouth 64

A perfect example that stats mean nothing