🍀🍀🍀 NCAA MEN's: 201 - 103 ... +75.96u

@fubah2

Which team you got in this game? 

@Europa

 Nobody.   Pure coin-flipper...  But fun to watch with pizza and beer!

Cool, I like Houston but no bets. 

2025 MENS YTD: 168 - 91    64.9% ... juice from losses only -12136

*2025 posted Best Bets:
      73 - 30   70.9% ...juice from 30 losses is -4477

             Posted *BBs  with heavy juice -200 and up:
                  25 - 5    83.3% (5 losers were: -200; -260; -250; -240; -235)

@fubah2

Coin flipper game, you've called it. Good call. 

.

My NCAA LEANS, past 19 days:

Mar 20:   4 - 1
Mar 21:   4 - 0
Mar 22:   5 - 1
Mar 23:   7 - 3
Mar 24:   1 - 0     WNCAA, as requested
Mar 25:   2 - 0     WNCAA
Mar 26:   2 - 1
Mar 27:   2 - 0     (1 - 0 WNCAA)
Mar 28:   3 - 0     (1 - 0 WNCAA)
Mar 31:   3 - 1     (2 - 1 WNCAA)
Apr 04:   1 - 0     (1 - 0 WNCAA)
Apr 05:   1 - 1     (1 - 0 WNCAA)   
---------------

  = 35 - 8      81.4% 
.

@Europa

 Thanks!  And the best part is, I still have 3 beers left!!!

Excellent Record!! Congrats for a winning season.. Not trying to intrude but just wanted to know whether you work with a Model/System or hunch while handicapping.. Thanks

@Europa

 Good  PASS  by you, my friend, from your initial thoughts of Houston!

@JASON3958

  Hi. Welcome to my thread!

To your Q, neither, as I come to believe what those terms mean.

Definitely not by "hunch" or "gut feel" ....that is a ticket to Loserville!

I would call mine a "method" (not a model or system, per se) which varies among my sports. My methods in each sport revolve around assessing team performances to date, accounting for games involving KEY injuries to either team, luck breaks, "one-offs,"  the margin ov victories or losses and against what calibre of teams they achieved it, and the pertinent venue their stats-performance was achieved.

@fubah2

 Thanks for that info..Quite a herculean task I must say with thousands of game every season.All the best for next season!! Cheers

@JASON3958

You're welcome    

I am able to trim the schedule for bets down considerably by focusing on which team will win the game outright - then decide if the corresponding price (juice) is worth the risk based on probabilities.  In CBK I almost always skip over any games with a double-digit spread, which effectively cuts the schedule in half in both men's and women's. Also I don't bother with "totals" and prop bets, as I found that the extra time that entailed led directly to fatigue - which ultimately leads to increasing errors causing losses and/or rushing my handicapping (or skipping parts of my methods)  to escape fatigue - and THAT led to increasing losses.

 In effect, "less is MORE!" 

2025 MENS YTD: 168 - 91    64.9% ... juice from losses only -12136

2025 posted *Best Bets:
      73 - 30   70.9% ...juice from 30 losses is -4477

             Posted *BBs  with heavy juice -200 and up:
                  25 - 5    83.3% (5 losers were: -200; -260; -250; -240; -235)

@fubah2

 You’re approach to handicapping is unique, and has opened my eyes to new strategies.  Most importantly that it’s ok to lay a large ML -200 or above as long as it hits.  83%  

What’s important in your strategy which is very intriguing to me is the confidence to lay large vig…and this requires a supportive bankroll to move on these.  also important to note this is not for short term day to day or volume cappers. 

But if you take this hobby serious or wager professionally, you absolutely need to think long term in your approach as you do King FUB.  Having the confidence to lose half your roll, and yet stay frugal enough to pass on days without value is key.  I’ve also witnessed the power of your live betting!  How did we survive before the recent new live options! Seems like a distant past but not long ago.  

what I personally began to do per your capping is if I support Team A at -4…. I’ll wait for a -2 or better. Waiting for the opportunity to catch a better line live under the proper conditions, and if not, wisely pass the day and look for the next.  It worked for me this past NCAAB season often, and I really can’t wait to try this tactic again.  In a game of runs and momentum like college hoops, live betting makes tremendous sense.  Passing on games also makes tremendous sense.  With lines tight, why not get that 2+pt advantage after a slow start? 

Please keep sharing your insights, we are all fortunate to have them.  Regards and Respect 

Jwoods 

Yes.  Overlooked tool by too many, due to misunderstanding of probability vs value.

However, one *MUST* perform due diligence first in analysis of any given team's chances of wining su.

@fubah2

   Best on the forum again

@Zeus4par

 TY!  BoL with your baseball bets!

  STAR Princeton transfer Xaivian Lee, one of the best point guards in the transfer portal, announced his commitment to Florida on Wednesday, giving the reigning national champion its replacement for Walter Clayton Jr.

@fubah2

 The next man up theory…. UConn did the same type of thing…didn’t quite work out as they expected. Auburn did the same type of thing and it worked very well. 

The portal creates a lot of opportunity but will also limit team chemistry.  It’s tough on the small programs and will absolutely make the lower seed upsets in the Tournament more a thing of the past.  Which imo has been a part of the tourney fascination the past 30+ years.  Not sure how some small schools will survive without the Money pump, the kids want better opportunities a better team, a chance at a title. It’s the American way. It’s hard to blame em for lack of loyalty or hopes for a better education etc.

From a different angle, Europe player development has done very well.  See the NBA for reference.   European 14 year olds have tight discipline, they work fundamentals hard daily, have been instructed on defense and the team game, and really deserve the opportunity.  We are behind I believe , and the way we’re currently on the comeback is basketball development at an early age.  

When’s the last time we saw an NCAAB Athlete academically ineligible? It makes sense to me that our best US/Canada talents are now in HS Academies getting the proper instruction and under ideal conditions. The alternative is time wasted until a man is 18, trying to learn chemistry and geometry with absolutely no desire.  Don’t get me wrong HS education and the responsibility required has great value for many, and especially some on the wrong path.  But in my eye, I think this is a very important and crucial development for US basketball moving foward.  European soccer clubs and academies get the kids involved at an early age and it’s a big commitment…. Soccer, or school, or life: is a big decision and the parents are 100% involved in guiding and helping making that commitment. (Hockey moms lol). 

i think we are on that path, and it will be a great thing for the inner city street courts, YMCA/Boys&Girls and kids with that infatuation and desire with playing a sport. I 100% also agree that small NCAAB programs and their cultures are losing in this new age.

Take care Fubah, I’m always very curious at your thoughts with all respect. 

Interesting points!

@fubah2

Off topic

ive been tracking a list of Starting Pitchers approaching regression and have had average success on paper.  I was considering introducing the idea to the MLB Forum but absolutely want to credit you and receive your hat tip to go ahead. 

take care 

Jwoods 

JJ,

Sure, go ahead! Tracking those ongoing results for the forum, likely can have value!

Thank you!

   St. John's is replacing UCLA in the CBS Sports Classic and will face Kentucky next season on Dec. 20, the network announced Thursday.

That matchup puts St. John's coach Rick Pitino against his former school and player in Kentucky coach Mark Pope.
Both teams were also in the top 10 of ESPN's top 25 rankings in April.