Do you take the moneyline on a short dog or take the points? That is the age old question. The following may be helpful in getting to an answer. Historical data shows that in NCAAB,the extra point(s) you get from playing the spread are worth as follows: At +1, the point is worth 8 cents, at +1 1/2 the points are worth 15 cents, at +2 the points are worth 24 cents, and at +2 1/2 the points are worth 34 cents. If you can improve your price by more than these amounts by taking the moneyline, its mathematically correct over the long run to take the moneyline in that spot. If a game falls on a spread number or in the middle, taking the moneyline will have cost you in that game, but over the long run what you gain in improved payouts will more than make up for it
I usually play it safe and take the points, unless, by taking the moneyline I'm gaining 3 or more cents over what the points are worth. On the Charlotte game yesterday, when I made my bet I could have taken +2 -05, or +130. Thus by taking the ML I would be gaing 35 cents in price, and sacrificing points that would be worth 24 cents, for a net inprovement of 11 cents. So that was a no brainer.
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