Posted:
#276
Nropp has left the building 0
January Hoops (Cont'd)
Posted:
#279
Quote Originally Posted by seppy21:
How does he have a 97% win record? He uses only chase systems AND he fudges and even blatantly lies about his numbers. If you like JM, then I am from Nigeria and my wealthy boss and his whole family died in a plane crash. I am the executor of the estate and I need an American or Canadian citizen to cash out some bearer bonds for which I will pay a fee of $722,000.00US(10% of the bonds value). Please send me your personal info to crackhead@gmail .com.
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Posted:
#282
Can not believe the BS in this thread,if you guys blindly tail his picks its your fault,I looked at that Cre.-Brad under and they have had high scoring games,some of you might want to do a little work of your own.
Bunch of cry babies,I hope he doesnt put out a pick again,no reason he has to,but I did like reading his info.
Bunch of cry babies,I hope he doesnt put out a pick again,no reason he has to,but I did like reading his info.
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Posted:
#283
Quote Originally Posted by Liquorinfront:
UNI and Wichita would normally be a decent game, but not this year.
Neil - I have to disagree a little here. The Shockers have a great home record, but we all know UNI will be able to slow it down. Jacobson knows they need to win this game..they cant get in the big dance relying on winning the mvc tourney. Out of their next 6 games, they have 3 easy wins..they need to go 5-1 for a chance for an invite. I think the team is focused and ready to make a run....+8 is alot of points for a game that will end up in the high one-teens...i like the value 
Nice Call.
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Posted:
#285
Quote Originally Posted by Upside:
Hey Neil ... Bounce back night .. tailed and loss last night , but that happens in this game , as you know . Great write-ups ..
Not a big bettor , but just put in a good size play on UNC Greensboro - 8 .. I think this team is playing better lately and I think Ga Southern is a team thats given up .. Any thoughts , bud ?? Appreciated ...
Think that's the right side. Couldn't stomach laying that many points with this team though.
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Posted:
#287
Quote Originally Posted by TheLiability:
Nropp: wow this is incredible with the people spilling their hearts out, get over it.
I am looking at North Az -7, any thoughts?
Nropp: wow this is incredible with the people spilling their hearts out, get over it.
I am looking at North Az -7, any thoughts?
Only side I could look at. Should be able to score on that defense. Wouldn't have laid that much chalk on the road in this conference.
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Posted:
#289
Quote Originally Posted by Boobaddict:
Nropp thanks for the great day yesterday Xavier, Northeastern, Rhode Island, and George Mason were all picks from your write-up. Bet the farm on Mason after the Ohio pick was toast and you nailed it. I know you hate road chalk but im thinkin Gonzaga runs Santa Clara outa their own gym tonight, thoughts?
Nropp thanks for the great day yesterday Xavier, Northeastern, Rhode Island, and George Mason were all picks from your write-up. Bet the farm on Mason after the Ohio pick was toast and you nailed it. I know you hate road chalk but im thinkin Gonzaga runs Santa Clara outa their own gym tonight, thoughts?
Leaned the other way. Always a chance Gonzaga runs any team outta the gym in this conference, but it's a nice spot for Santa Clara. They have enough offense to hang around. Problem is on the other side of the ball.
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Posted:
#291
Quote Originally Posted by thornridge1972:
neil,
I kinda like wisky-13 1/2 vs. indy. The hoosiers shot lights. out vs. Mich(67%).Also like the under which should be about 127. Your thoughts? Also wanted to bet UW but the line is 9! Why so high?
Washington has a HUGE home court advantage. They play off the crowd and embarrass opponents when they come in. The nine doesn't seem so high in a game that should get up and down.
As for Wisconsin, my gut tells me to take the points. I didn't really look at it too much, just saw an opportunity for a Indiana outright win. That's just gut. Just a weird feeling I tend to sorta look past at every possible time it occurs.
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Posted:
#297
1/19 Results: 1-3 Night. Fullerton continues to have Long Beach State’s #. That game was more shocking than anything that happened Wednesday night. I’m still shocked by this Indiana State squad. No clue why Iowa State chose to run with Oklahoma State. Still shocked about Penn State, same can be said for Northern Iowa and UNLV.
Sides: 49-34, +19.80
Totals: 42-22, +22.50
DNP: 67-55
1/20 Notes: Northern Illinois finds itself in 2nd place in their half of the MAC with one of the worst defenses in the country. They’ve now played two horrendous offenses in EMU and Toledo (games which they won), and this will be their third straight team they play ranked in the 300’s in offense. They’ve been able to get teams going into an up and down game, and when that happens, you’re playing right into their offense’s hands. I value CMU better, but I’m not sure they have enough offense to keep up outside of Ziegler. I value FIU a tad higher than Arky LR, but not worth it inside a possession. Arky LR has been shooting the ball awfully well, but they have been horrendous on the road, and they haven’t played a defense that will take chances and pressure like FIU’s defense since late December. A lot of these Sun Belt teams will stay home on defense, and let their offense take over, but not FIU. They score on offense b/c of what they create on the defensive end. Arky LR has won one game on the road this year, and it was the opener. They didn’t win a single road game last year, either. I have no interest in games involving Auburn. I don’t really like Detroit’s odds of going on the road after losing a couple big ballgames at home. Cleveland State is still without Brown, but their schedule sets them up to where I’m not sure they lose another game all year. This is a pretty big sandwich game for Wright State after beating Butler then grabbing Cleveland State. It’s a tough spot for them with this the first of a four game roadtrip. Their defense at the guard position will always keep them in ballgames, and that’s what they’ll need tonight against a Youngstown team that relies on the three-pointer. If Middle Tennessee State could just give me any inkling of the type of offensive team they could be, I would play them tonight. Troy is in serious letdown mode after two big home wins in the conference against the two biggest names in the conference in WKU and UNT. They now go on the road where they’ve given up 76, 93, 80, 80, 75, 92, 81, 80 and 79. When Troy goes zone, it is realistically one of the worst zone’s I’ve ever watched in my life and they continue to play it. MTSTU’s offense is better than what it’s shown, or so I believe. They’ll also have enough shooters, just need the shots to go in. Troy was waxed here two years ago with an exact style of play 81-53. It’s probably a good time to point out that WKU is now 0-4 in the conference as I had them projected in the upper half of the Sun Belt. They are really lacking some offense, which was the main concern coming in. Their five wins have come against teams who have no offense (yes, I still consider Bowling Green a team with no offense), and even at the frenetic pace they are playing, they are still struggling to score. They’ve now lost six straight, and South Bama probably comes at the right time as they’re another team that can’t really score, and they can’t defend either. This South Bama team returned virtually everyone from a team last year whose conference wins came against all bottom-halfers. Number-wise, they have actually gotten worse somehow. I think it’s a good spot for WKU to get out of a slump. I think Santa Clara can run with Gonzaga. Gonzaga has put together a nice stretch, but they’re finally playing a team that can get out and run that includes some offensive talent. I’m playing Arkansas State. They haven’t played their best basketball on the road, but they’re a much more talented team than Denver as I feel they are the projected top spot on that half of the Sun Belt even losing Daniel Bryant. Without him, they have become much more assertive on the defensive end which you are going to need to match up with a Denver team that can shoot from pretty much all spots on the floor. Offensively, they bring a lot of toughness and are comprised primarily of role players which should help going into Denver. They don’t have a stand out scorer and the focus of me playing them will be defensively. As for Denver, they are extremely efficient on offense with their Princeton style...
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Posted:
#299
...They will break down your defense, and almost exclusively get the best shot that is available. I’ve commented on this before, Joe Scott’s teams have glaring weaknesses outside of their strength which is shooting the ball. They more than likely attempt one shot on the offensive end. They do not crash the glass, everyone gets back on defense. They also do not play defense. They try to, but their best form of defense is fouling you. This coach has stuck by these methods for years, and he has yet to change. They’re 5-0 in the conference, they’ve won them all in close fashion, and it just so happens those five wins came against the following ranked free throw percentages: #234, #234, #338, #229, and #306. Arkansas State comes in #102, better than average shooting above 70% for the year from the stripe. It sounds stupid and cliché, but realistically when dealing with Joe Scott, it’s going to be a prime importance in his games. They have to shoot it extremely well to win these types of games, where a team comes in that brings a balanced starting five and shoots it well from the stripe. Arkansas State doesn’t mind playing slow, and they won’t give up extra possessions on the inside with Adams in the paint. Denver doesn’t really matchup down low all that well either. Denver’s next three are against pretty much the same makeup as tonight, the slide begins…NOW. Louisiana Tech cannot be trusted. Very plausible they score their lowest point total of the season tonight. They don’t match-up well and I’m not sure how they score on Utah State. I like Virginia Tech, not worth it. Poly SLO and Riverside gets my vote for snoozefest of the night, but similar styles should add value to the over. I value Arizona State a tad higher by end of the year, but they match up incredibly horrible with Washington State in terms of matchups. I’ve actually had this one circled since Washington is on deck for Arizona State and it’s the second of a three-game trip and somewhat of a sandwich game, so it’s a prime spot for a flat out whooping. I’m not laying the 10 though. Portland will struggle with good defenses, and I will group San Fran in the bunch of good defensive styles to contain them. I’ve pretty much summed Nevada up about all I can this year, but I like New Mexico State. Their guards should be able to score enough against Nevada’s style of play. Catching some extreme value with Nevada winning at Boise the other night in a game in which Boise shot 36%. New Mexico State’s road losses aren’t as bad as they seem: Arizona, UTEP, New Mexico, and Boise. All have better offenses and defenses than what they face tonight and they’re offense has been unstoppable. I’m not sure how Nevada keeps up. They also return to a place where they gave up 100 last year. Motivation will be there for a good performance. No interest in the Pac-10 games. I like Fresno State. They’re style of play should bring an ugly game for Hawaii, and with as young as they are, it’s not a good thing. Georgia Southern and UNC Greensboro are mirror images of each other. Neither team plays defense, Neither team can score. Both teams play fast. These offenses could look like NBA teams tonight. I value Davidson a lot better than Elon. The Wofford loss was pretty upsetting to them as they had been playing good basketball, and then they come out and lay an egg against UNC Greensboro. They haven’t been the best of road teams, but they have lost to some decent competition outside of Greensboro. Elon’s defensive style is pretty much the type of style Davidson is prepared and built around. I like Western Carolina, not even going to try to make sense of it. Playing the over though. Both team’s defensive styles lead to the other teams offensive strengths. Wofford has always been more successful in past years against Chattanooga when they have slowed the ballgame down, which should be the case in this first meeting. Along with that, Chattanooga is coming off a big win with Charleston, so a letdown is possible. Love Appy State, avoiding them until Saturday with a lookahead that essentially makes or breaks their season. Neither Tenny Martin or SEMO really care about playing defense. They played to a 157 total a few weeks ago that saw only 115 shots attempted. Neither team shot it all that well, SEMO maybe a bit better than usual. Both teams are coming off slow games and slow teams, and both teams will be eager to run. The teams are pretty much clones of each other, SEMO might be a bit more athletic, but in the end, they play same styles of defenses and the offenses won’t be seeing anything different. SEMO’s offense has been bad on the road, but this will be the easiest and most familiar defense they’ll play all year. Both teams are coming off games where their shot attempts were in the 30’s. Teams should be eager to play their own style. I think Peay is a bit overvalued, but Tech is coming off a 3OT game, then had to play Murray State and gave up a million points. Can’t really see how they rebound to even put up a fight here. Speaking of Murray State, finally liked what I saw out of them on the offensive side of things the other day at Tech. I saw no value in the Big Sky, maybe Portland State with the lack of depth Weber State has.
Bets
Arkansas State +3.5 (3 Units)
Western Kentucky ML -120 (2 Units)
New Mexico State +3 (2 Units)
Western Carolina/Coll Charleston Over 149 (2 Units)
Arkansas State ML +150 (1 Unit)
SEMO/Tenny Martin Over 142.5 (1 Unit)
Wofford/Chattanooga Under 144 (1 Unit)
DNP: Washington State -10, Poly SLO/Riverside Over 118.5, Georgia Southern/UNC Greensboro Over 145.5
GL
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