1/4 Results: 2-1, slight profit.
Sides: 37-23, +19.30
Totals: 26-12, +12.50
DNP: 47-37
1/5 Notes Part 1: No interest in Purdue/Penn State. Not really invested in a lot of these Big Ten matchups for some reason. I’m probably off of Seton Hall for the year. Coming into the year, I had them having a better Big East or similar conference year to Louisville, but without Hazell, probably not so much. I’m content with sitting on the sideline with this team. Both VCU and Drexel are coming off extremely bad losses and both might have been looking forward to the game that tips off tonight. VCU appears to be a much better team at home, but they have played easier competition there as well. Their five losses come on the road to tough defensive squads in Tennessee, South Florida, Richmond, UAB, and Georgia State. Georgia State plays a different style of basketball than what VCU is accustomed to, so I’m not worried about that loss too much on the road. Coming in, VCU lost Sanders, but I didn’t expect a big dropoff, and I’m not sure we will get one in conference. They return the next top six after him and they had the top recruiting class in the conference. Just to give you an idea of how the team is setup, they brought in a top 100 recruit and he hasn’t seen the court yet (go ahead and youtube Reco McCarter). As for the returners, their top five players that see the court this year in terms of minutes were five outta their top six last year, and they’re all offensively gifted. Four of them ranked close to the top 100 in terms of touches last year and I expect that to be a big part of what goes into the game plan tonight, especially coming off a horrendous loss on the road. As for Drexel coming into the year, they have actually over-impressed to the standpoint of what occurred in the offseason. They still have their go-to-guy in Fouch, but they lost their best two interior defensemen, and third-team CAA Harris was caught on video burglarizing a local store with a gun and subsequently kicked off the team. Along with that, they did not return a single PG from last year’s roster and the only post player they saw return with experience was 6’5”. I’m not sure what to make of the team this year, the defense is basically performing the same (rebound well, defend the 3ball), but the offense has done a complete 360 in terms of how they approach ball games and they have improved immensely. I just think in the CAA conference, experience prevails. VCU’s been in this spot before coming off bad losses to less than superb teams and bounced back and they’ve won 17 straight at home. Drexel, on the other hand, I’m not sure how they rebound after a tough home loss. Three of their starters are sophomores, and they start a freshman PG which I wouldn’t really want going into a tough hostile environment against a tough defense. Drexel will go big, probably forcing VCU to put out a lineup it really doesn’t want to b/c they’ve had problems rebounding. I think it’s a tough low-scoring battle, and I’d have to side with the better offense not necessarily the better offense on paper, but the one that I know will produce. I can’t see Drexel’s offense keeping up with it’s current pace throughout the year in a conference where familiarity reigns supreme. They’ve had some opportunities to get out and go and get some easy transition baskets this year, but I expect in conference play for an extreme showing of slow-tempo basketball where their inability to play in a half-court set haunts them (outside of Fouch taking shots). I’d probably risk VCU at less than a possession, but I still lean them here. I also point to the under in this ballgame. VCU should go big to try and resolve the rebounding issues, and that should slow the pace, two great defensive teams, and Drexel’s dive on the offensive side of things (I hope). No interest in the George Mason/Hosftra or Towson/James Madison games. I like William & Mary, but they haven’t been what I thought they would be this year and that’s a good offensive team with slight improvement on the defensive side of things. I think they’ll play to the competition in the league just b/c of the style they play, but I can’t back them here, although I had this game at a PK. Charlotte had a chance to sweep Richmond last year but came up short in the conference tournament in OT. Charlotte’s been involved in FOUR extremely close ball games in a row, when the wheels come off, they will come off in good fashion. I point to the Marshall/UCF Under as I think it’s a tad high. Both teams have gotten out and ran a bit this year, but neither team really wants to do so. UCF wants to win on the defensive side of things and I think they do so tonight. I still think UCF is a tad bit overrated, but that’s just my opinion without getting into it. The only top 100 defense Marshall has played this year is Louisville and they only put up 66. I think with the conference atmosphere, this is a bit slower than that one. UCF has put up 65 and 57 against the two top 100 defenses they’ve faced.
Bets
Drexel/VCU Under 132.5 (1 Unit)
Marshall/Central Florida Under 139 (1 Unit)
DNP: VCU -4.5
GL
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