January Hoops

...Washington line is probably spot on. Boise State’s defense gets a test for the first time since early December. I’m looking forward to this game, have a great feeling of whether Boise has overachieved or underachieved to this point from the result of this. I had Loyola Marymount circled as a play at the beginning of this year in this exact spot if everything went according to plan, but everything did not go according to plan as Loyola Marymount is without a starter. I still think the line holds value, but I’m not going to invest in it as much as I had hoped. Both Hamilton (slasher) and Dubais (shooter), I think are replaceable. By losing these two, Loyola gets even lengthier which is what they’ll need to defend Portland’s onslaught of three-point balls as they’re the best three point shooting teams in the country. The key for this game being circled is one of two things. First, this matchup comes immediately after the Gonzaga game, which was Portland’s National Title Game. Second, Loyola limped into this exact gym last year and lost by 40 (were they looking ahead to Gonzaga?). It’s going to be hard for Portland to get up for this one. They also welcome back Ashley Hamilton who has not been playing with a broken hand. Loyola brings back too many players to not remember last year’s failure. It really comes down to one thing. Loyola has under-achieved and I can’t explain it. They’re one of the most athletic teams in the conference, but they haven’t shown it. Had they be showing it, I wouldn’t be getting double digit value. They have to string together a few wins to build some confidence, and against a three-point shooting team who lacks defense, they just need an off night from the opponent to do so. It’s a nice situational spot, it’s a nice defensive and offensive matchup, they just have to control one thing, and that’s the shot from long distance. And you can do that with athleticism, getting out and running, and getting some easy baskets. The best defense against the three-ball is transition offense, and Loyola is equipped to do so. It’s the reason they came back and beat Portland towards the end of the year last year and it’s the style they’ve played coming back from the break except the snail in San Diego. There is a pretty good chance SEMO hits a wall tonight. They’re 4-2 in the conference, but they haven’t played a team that can defend quite like Morehead. Pretty good spot for an under play, but the problem is that SEMO plays ZERO defense. I like Tenny Martin as odd as that sounds, but I’ll wait for the second meeting between these two teams. It was hard to avoid the over here as well with two of the worst defensive teams in the country going at it. I saw no value in the Big Sky with uppers going against lessers. I don’t see anything posted on the Summit, only one I would be interested in is SDST and Western Illinois.

I bet this Buffalo/Miami OH Under at 133.5, but will post the current 130. Little slow typing notes today. Eat. Drink. Avoid Bloodbath.

DNP: Loyola Marymount +10.5. Loyola CHI/Wisky GB Over 135

GL

...Washington line is probably spot on. Boise State’s defense gets a test for the first time since early December. I’m looking forward to this game, have a great feeling of whether Boise has overachieved or underachieved to this point from the result of this. I had Loyola Marymount circled as a play at the beginning of this year in this exact spot if everything went according to plan, but everything did not go according to plan as Loyola Marymount is without a starter. I still think the line holds value, but I’m not going to invest in it as much as I had hoped. Both Hamilton (slasher) and Dubais (shooter), I think are replaceable. By losing these two, Loyola gets even lengthier which is what they’ll need to defend Portland’s onslaught of three-point balls as they’re the best three point shooting teams in the country. The key for this game being circled is one of two things. First, this matchup comes immediately after the Gonzaga game, which was Portland’s National Title Game. Second, Loyola limped into this exact gym last year and lost by 40 (were they looking ahead to Gonzaga?). It’s going to be hard for Portland to get up for this one. They also welcome back Ashley Hamilton who has not been playing with a broken hand. Loyola brings back too many players to not remember last year’s failure. It really comes down to one thing. Loyola has under-achieved and I can’t explain it. They’re one of the most athletic teams in the conference, but they haven’t shown it. Had they be showing it, I wouldn’t be getting double digit value. They have to string together a few wins to build some confidence, and against a three-point shooting team who lacks defense, they just need an off night from the opponent to do so. It’s a nice situational spot, it’s a nice defensive and offensive matchup, they just have to control one thing, and that’s the shot from long distance. And you can do that with athleticism, getting out and running, and getting some easy baskets. The best defense against the three-ball is transition offense, and Loyola is equipped to do so. It’s the reason they came back and beat Portland towards the end of the year last year and it’s the style they’ve played coming back from the break except the snail in San Diego. There is a pretty good chance SEMO hits a wall tonight. They’re 4-2 in the conference, but they haven’t played a team that can defend quite like Morehead. Pretty good spot for an under play, but the problem is that SEMO plays ZERO defense. I like Tenny Martin as odd as that sounds, but I’ll wait for the second meeting between these two teams. It was hard to avoid the over here as well with two of the worst defensive teams in the country going at it. I saw no value in the Big Sky with uppers going against lessers. I don’t see anything posted on the Summit, only one I would be interested in is SDST and Western Illinois.

I bet this Buffalo/Miami OH Under at 133.5, but will post the current 130. Little slow typing notes today. Eat. Drink. Avoid Bloodbath.

DNP: Loyola Marymount +10.5. Loyola CHI/Wisky GB Over 135

GL

If I got pummeled by 40 at an opponents gymnasium, and returned there to play the following year, the first thing that would come to mind when I stepped on the floor would be the bad loss. Viney was hurt in that matchup last year as well, so I might have overplayed the importance of the revenge angle and not put enough emphasis on Viney, but there has got to be some sort of motivation for shooting 20% in a building and coming back to it, hopefully.

Not sure what I can do different. On a side note, the line moves really mean nothing to me. If I had time, I'd go back and check, but I can't remember more than an instance or two when the line moves even mattered. I can't say that this will continue to happen (lines generally get tougher after the first of year when football is over), but it is what it is. Something fun for me, I'd like to keep it that way.