January Hoops

Keep up the great work!!1 

I think you're on the right side, but I couldn't lay road chalk in conference more than a possession. I'm not too familiar with Stanford, but it's obvious they lack the offense to run with Washington. They'll slow this game down in a pretty big way.

...The rest of the conference schedule sets up pretty well outside of two games in late February at GM and VCU. I think Old Dominion is the better all-around team, but not going to risk it in this type of game where points are minimal and a single offensive rebound off a weird bounce from the rim could determine the outcome. No interest in Illinois-Chicago games. Loyola CHI is a different story however. Neither Loyola or Wisky GB play too much up and down, but they will get out in transition when the opportunity presents itself. These two teams are pretty similar with both having little to no post presence, and very good guard play. In a game that should be determined by the shooting of the guards, I’ll always take a look at the point total going over. Loyola CHI is putting up some big points on the road, not sure I can explain it. Neither team’s defense is that great, I think both get close to 70 here, but I’m gonna hold off. I’ve written enough on Middle Tennessee State this year, and the common theme on them was defense as it’s a big reason they won the title last year in the Sun Belt. But, this defense has under achieved to a certain extent this year due to a somewhat tricky schedule. I like their matchup tonight and it seems for some odd reason I find value in them every time they step on the court. But I’m going to pass on them tonight and look at the total. Their first three conference games have come against probably the fastest three teams in the Sun Belt who play to little or no rhythm and play drastically different styles than good fundamental teams do. Florida Atlantic is the opposite. They maximize their possessions, and slow the game down to what they want to do, and that’s capitalize at or near the end of games. They’re currently 4-0 in the conference going into the defending champs building with a good defense and a slow style of play. They will and should control the tempo. They defend guards extremely well, and when those guards get into the paint, they are one of the top teams in the nation at rotating. These sophomores have bought into Jarvis system. They were one of the worst defenses in the country last year, but were able to outscore teams a bit with some good offensive guards. This year, they’ve done a complete 360. They’ve slowed the pace of the game down a TON, and because of it, they have lacked some firepower on offense, and put a complete approach on the defensive side of the floor. Outside of the Troy game (and I’ve played a million Troy over’s this year it seems and this Troy game had 133 shots attempted), they’ve held conference opponents to 58, 58, and 57. All three of those games were played in the 120’s. That Troy game would have even stayed under this listed total with no overtime. The only threat or worry I see within this game is the inexperience of FAU going on the road with a young team and getting out and running if MTSTU decides to do so. But, I can’t see MTSTU doing that with the current state of their offense, and FAU being the better all-around offensive squad. I like the matchups MTSTU has on the FAU guards in the half court setting, and both Jarvis and Kermit preach defense. This is a pretty big game in terms of early Sun Belt hierarchy, and we should get a good defensive game from both. Stay clear from OT, please. I’ve commented before on the offensive talent that Florida International has and they’re about one year away from completely controlling this conference, and with that, they play zero defense. It should get better next year with an offseason to prepare, but I can’t forsee it changing this year. On the flip side, North Texas doesn’t really play much defense either. FIU has won three straight, but their opponents  have either shot awful or have played slow. It’s obvious North Texas wants to get out and run, and they’re going against one of the worst defenses they’ll face this year, and with the inexperience of FIU, they’re going to be forced to run with them. I projected this line in the 155 range, I am an idiot...

...Go ahead and take those notes from what I just mentioned and apply them to the Troy/Western Kentucky game, but WKU has a bit of defense, so throw it out the window. I like San Jose State, hate the fact that both them and Louisiana Tech have lost four in a row, and changes are probably coming to both lineups but that could be a very good thing in this spot. Both teams weaknesses are the other teams offensive strengths. Neither one of these defenses scare me, and San Jose State is the process behind this pointing to the over. They’ve played above this # since the first of December if you throw out the Fresno State game b/c of a lack of offense from Fresno and poor shooting. There is an interesting dynamic going into the game aside from the four losses each have produced consecutively. Louisiana Tech played three of their last four on the road, and those were against some above average defenses. They shot horribly, most notably on the third and final game of that trip, and it carried over against a Fresno State team in a home game with a week off. Fresno’s the kicker. They play a brand of basketball that is just awful to watch, awful to defend, and awful to take part in. La Tech has had a week off, which I will assume was spent on the offensive side of things being that that has been the problem and coming off that Fresno game, they’re at their best when they can get up and down and that’s exactly what they should do tonight. On the flip side, SJST has shown not a single sign that they want to slow down anything. This defense was flat out pitiful last year and it’s continued this year. They didn’t rebound adding to extra shots for the opponent, and they did not turn opponents over, adding to extra shots. It’s all carried over, and they’ve got a decent offense to go with it. They haven’t shot the three-ball as well as they have in the past, but this would be the perfect spot to get it going. This Louisiana Tech team has been primarily built on defense, but with the loss of Rolle, they have to produce on the offensive side of things to come in, which is what they used at the beginning of the year with success. The week off should help re-focus and we should get an up and down game with quite a few transition opportunities and a game that features the top four scorers in the WAC, who are always consistent. I’m still on the Oregon State sidelines until I can figure out how this team transformed into one of the fastest teams in the nation after being one of the slowest. The team also appears to be a totally different animal on the road than at home as well. No interest in VT/UNC. Injuries galore in the Irvine/UCSB game, completely looked past it. I’m not sure where this Cal Poly SLO resurgence came from, and their schedule is actually favorable until the last week of the season. SORT OF SCARY...

...Washington line is probably spot on. Boise State’s defense gets a test for the first time since early December. I’m looking forward to this game, have a great feeling of whether Boise has overachieved or underachieved to this point from the result of this. I had Loyola Marymount circled as a play at the beginning of this year in this exact spot if everything went according to plan, but everything did not go according to plan as Loyola Marymount is without a starter. I still think the line holds value, but I’m not going to invest in it as much as I had hoped. Both Hamilton (slasher) and Dubais (shooter), I think are replaceable. By losing these two, Loyola gets even lengthier which is what they’ll need to defend Portland’s onslaught of three-point balls as they’re the best three point shooting teams in the country. The key for this game being circled is one of two things. First, this matchup comes immediately after the Gonzaga game, which was Portland’s National Title Game. Second, Loyola limped into this exact gym last year and lost by 40 (were they looking ahead to Gonzaga?). It’s going to be hard for Portland to get up for this one. They also welcome back Ashley Hamilton who has not been playing with a broken hand. Loyola brings back too many players to not remember last year’s failure. It really comes down to one thing. Loyola has under-achieved and I can’t explain it. They’re one of the most athletic teams in the conference, but they haven’t shown it. Had they be showing it, I wouldn’t be getting double digit value. They have to string together a few wins to build some confidence, and against a three-point shooting team who lacks defense, they just need an off night from the opponent to do so. It’s a nice situational spot, it’s a nice defensive and offensive matchup, they just have to control one thing, and that’s the shot from long distance. And you can do that with athleticism, getting out and running, and getting some easy baskets. The best defense against the three-ball is transition offense, and Loyola is equipped to do so. It’s the reason they came back and beat Portland towards the end of the year last year and it’s the style they’ve played coming back from the break except the snail in San Diego. There is a pretty good chance SEMO hits a wall tonight. They’re 4-2 in the conference, but they haven’t played a team that can defend quite like Morehead. Pretty good spot for an under play, but the problem is that SEMO plays ZERO defense. I like Tenny Martin as odd as that sounds, but I’ll wait for the second meeting between these two teams. It was hard to avoid the over here as well with two of the worst defensive teams in the country going at it. I saw no value in the Big Sky with uppers going against lessers. I don’t see anything posted on the Summit, only one I would be interested in is SDST and Western Illinois.

I bet this Buffalo/Miami OH Under at 133.5, but will post the current 130. Little slow typing notes today. Eat. Drink. Avoid Bloodbath.

DNP: Loyola Marymount +10.5. Loyola CHI/Wisky GB Over 135

GL