Posted:
#701
Anyone who panics like pathetic little turds 1/4th of the way into games. They're 40 minutes ass-falcons.
0
January Hoops
Posted:
#707
1/9 Results: 14-11 on the week...
Sides: 42-27, +22.60
Totals: 32-16, +14.30
DNP: 54-45
1/10 Notes: Only three games tonight. All five of Marquette’s losses have one thing in common, they have all come to top 50 offenses in the country (Duke, Gonzaga, Wisconsin, Vanderbilt, and Pitt). The only other top 50 offense they have played this year would have been West Virginia, and they won that game by 5 (attempted 14 more free throws). Against those top 50 offenses, here is the total shot attempts in those games: WVU (117), Pitt (115), Vandy (120), Wisky (103), Zaga (114), Duke (134). Outside of the slow pace Wisconsin plays, there has been a great # of shots attempted (one team got 60 every game) and tonight features another game where many shots could be put up. The two lowest scoring games out of this bunch were Wisconsin (slow pace and rivalry) and Gonzaga (on a back-to-back day after running with Duke). As for Notre Dame, and this is where coaching and defense comes in to play, the results could not be any more opposite. They have slowed the game down against great offenses this year and they very well could tonight. Check out what they’ve done against top 50 offenses:
St. John’s (104 Shots), 137 Points
Uconn (112 Shots), 143 Points
Syracuse (111 Shots), 128 Points
Georgetown (106 Shots), 124 Points
Gonzaga (103 Shots), 162 Points (both teams shoot 55% from long distance, and 48 FT attempted)
Kentucky (112 Shots), 130 Points
Wisconsin (105 Shots), 109 Points
With the exception of one game, Brey’s done his best to slow down opposing top 50 offenses and depended on his defense to come out ahead. On the opposite side, Marquette hasn’t. They’re young and it shows with their willingness to run and put up shots. I would have to believe that Notre Dame, yet again, limits the shots and tries to make this a grind it out style of game against a top offense as they have done (not a single team attempted 60+ against them). And, on the flip side, these are two top 100 defenses as well. These two teams played to a 102 regulation total (123 overtime) total last year and both teams are coming off physical battles played just two days ago (Pitt & St. John’s). Marquette's also coming off that loss at Pitt which saw a few players with career #'s put up, could be a good spot for back to reality. I want no part of Elon or UNC Greensboro as I have them both tabbed with Georgia Southern in the bottom of the Southern Conference, and could possibly be three of the worst teams in the country. UNC Greensboro hasn’t won a game yet, and that’s due in large part to moving home games to the Greensboro Coliseum. Move your home games there, and of course you are going to attract home and home scheduling situations with just about every ACC team b/c that’s where the conference tournament is played and all teams want some experience playing there. They haven’t played all the ACC teams at home this year, but over the course of the next three years they will (they played Duke, Clemson, Wake Forest, Maryland, Virginia Tech, and Florida State this year, not all at home, but they are home/home agreements). It’s pretty smart of these ACC teams to take advantage. Normally, I’d take a look at Peay and Tenny Martin going over the total as the shot totals in this matchup have been off the charts in recent years and Peay doesn’t mind getting up and down. Neither one of these defenses are all that impressive, in fact, Tenny Martin’s defense is flat out awful and has been for a few years now. It’s just not a good spot with Austin Peay coming off a big win and physical contest with Murray State and Tenny Martin doing the same with Tenny State (not physical, but grind it out type of game). I’d still point over, but there important factors keeping me off of it.
Bets: None
DNP: None
GL
0
Posted:
#716
1/11 Projections: Not my #’s, just some guesses:
Georgia Tech +8
Clemson -8
Texas -5.5
Texas Tech +5.5
Wisconsin +5
Michigan State -5
Rutgers +16
Uconn -16
Northern Illinois +3
Eastern Michigan -3
Bowling Green +9
Kent State -9
Auburn +23
Kentucky -23
BYU -11
Utah +11
Illinois -6
Penn State +6
Oklahoma +19
Baylor -19
NC State +6
Boston College -6
Florida PK
Tennessee PK
Manhattan +16
Florida Atlantic -16
Notes to follow…
GL
0
Posted:
#723
1/10 Results: Boring Monday…
Sides: 42-27, +22.60
Totals: 32-16, +14.30
DNP: 54-45
1/11 Notes: Georgia Tech and Clemson has been postponed until tomorrow due to a winter storm. Texas has dominated the Texas Tech series in recent memory and their offense seems to be hitting on all cylinders at this point in the season. Texas Tech has been a pretty big disappointment this year. The returned just about everybody and have a worse defense and offense numbers wise. They’re still playing an extremely fast tempo, but it’s not working. On top of that, I have them projected in the cellar of the Big 12 with Oklahoma and it’s quite possible they only get a few victories in this conference this year, if that (some sites predict one win the rest of the year). Texas was playing some good basketball before Uconn came in and put an end to it the other night in an OT game. I’m not sure how they respond here, and I’m not willing to invest in the spot. I’m only interested in a few Big 10 spots this year, and this is one of the smaller investments. I’m not impressed with Michigan State as I have mentioned in the past, but this is probably a pretty good spot to invest in them. A majority of Michigan State’s losses have come on the road this year with the exception of the Texas debacle at home where they shot 29%. Michigan State not only has revenge from the second meeting last year, but they are coming off a loss, a bad one at that. Izzo should have full focus and we should get a great effort tonight. The home team has also won the last ten in the series (possibly more, I didn’t look) and MSU has been pretty good off a loss in recent history. Wisconsin hasn’t been impressive on the road, and the lone game they won was the Marquette game (which I bet b/c of a lack of inside play for Marquette). Wisconsin will struggle to score this year when they matchup with teams who can defend the paint, and MSU would qualify as one of those teams who can defend open shots and rebound both offensively and defensively with Wisconsin...
0
Posted:
#724
...Both teams bring in excellent defenses, but offense should be the key here, and I fully expect Michigan State to bounce back off a bad loss in which they shot horribly. Those things kind of tend to revert themselves, and this is the spot to do it. Wisconsin has had a bit more time to prep for the matchup, but with that extra time, they also have extra time to think about getting revenge on Illinois when they welcome them in on Saturday. I think in this case, coming off the bad loss, the little time to prepare for Michigan State could be beneficial. I have no interest in the Rutgers/Uconn matchup with Uconn in a letdown spot after an OT victory. Both Northern Illinois and Eastern Michigan are quantity over quality type teams, while both like to get out and run when necessary. These two teams did play to a 146 total last year the first meeting, but the second meeting there was turmoil around the NIU program and they lost some key offensive players and that meeting landed in the 120’s, along with the third meeting which was obviously built upon defense b/c it was a conference tournament setting. Northern Illinois is coming off a slow team in Ball State and a tough defense in Iowa State. Eastern Michigan is coming off a slow couple in Samford and Toledo. I’d say this spot sets up pretty well for both teams to get out and do what they like to do best, and that’s get up a maximum # of shots. Both teams have two really consistent scorers in Silas and Bowdry, and neither team matches up well with them. Me and Bowling Green probably won’t see too many instances where we touch each other this year. Bowling Green uses a matchup zone against it’s opponents, which will work against some teams in the MAC, but not your Kent State/Akron types. Both of these teams have slashers which take full advantage of the matchup principles. Kent State doesn’t shoot it all that well from the outside, but it’s not needed here. Bowling Green is at the tail end of a three game roady where they actually won the first two, so I’m not sure what to think. Game 1 was the physical defensive battle with STL, and game 2 was a double overtime thriller. Game three is a case of either one, carrying the confidence over, or two, an extremely content team that was happy with two victories already and is just ready to get home. I am not interested in Auburn for the year. BYU is pretty much dead to me until late February when they welcome SDSTU. There is a nice article on Illinois on the Basketball Prospectus website on how well they have shot the ball this year in the conference. They’ve done something really unheard of. Since 2006, there has only been four cases where a team has an effective field goal percentage of more than 80 (that is 3000+ games) in conference play. Illinois has now done it twice in its first three conference games. Normally, one would think this is a good stat, not me. While it is truly remarkable, it exemplifies how much they rely on shooting the ball. Throw out defense, throw out rebounding, throw out any game plan, they just try to outshoot you, and they’ve been successful in the conference. Of course, this is the primary reason they also lost to UIC. Shots go in, you win. If they don’t, you lose. Breaking down this team on a nightly basis really goes no further than that. Tonight’s a pretty important game considering the next three are Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Ohio State. Oklahoma’s really bad. Their offense is bad. When they’ve played on a neutral or true road game this year, their opponent has scored at will. Same can’t be said for their home games, so I’m eager to see if their road/neutral totals continue to be played above the 130 mark that’s lined tonight. I’d point over, but this offense is bad, really, really, really bad. I point to the NC State/Boston College total going under. Both teams are coming off extremely good shooting performances against Wake Forest and Georgia Tech , so both get a step up in competition tonight. Both offenses are scary, but with some young-ins mixed in playing a first road ACC game, and Boston College actually playing a team that can defend that doesn’t play an absurd up and down game. Both teams match up extremely well defensively. I need a bit of an off night for Boston College from long distance or a slow it down style from NC State (they have done this well when they wanted to all year), and I think I get at least one of them. I lean to Florida based solely on offseason projections. They’re one of the few teams in the SEC who can match up length wise and still pose and offensive threat. I’m only leaning b/c this Tennessee team is completely unreliable at the moment. Need to see a few more without Pearl on the bench to determine a few things.
Bets
Michigan State -4 (2 Units)
Northern Illinois/Eastern Michigan Over 138 (2 Units)
NC State/Boston College Under 144.5 (2 Units)
DNP: Florida +3.5
GL
0
Hot Forum Topics
