Posted:
#326
he won't play pacific -10
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January Hoops
Pacific -10. I don't think he's going to break his rule of not taking favorites over 5 points two nights in a row.
Posted:
#329
1/5 Results: Pretty good day with some luck thrown in.
Sides: 39-23, +23.30
Totals: 29-12, +17.50
DNP: 47-40
1/6 Notes: All conference games aside from the Xavier/Cincy rivalry game, which I am not interested in. I’m not really sure what to think of Villanova. Their defense has been a lot better, and while the offense seems it has dropped off, it really hasn’t. They haven’t looked as fluid as past teams, but they’re getting the job done. South Florida’s offense has been awful. I think Nova has hit the 70 mark all but three times this year, while USF has only hit 70 three times, and they haven’t done so since November. I value Arkansas State quite a bit more than FIU, but FIU has some talent and it’s just a matter of time before they put it all together. Both teams playing their first conference roady/home game. Not really sure how the South Alabama and Florida Atlantic game is going to play out. They played three times last year and all three games were different styles of play. Denver’s surprised me as they’ve won four straight and they did beat Western Kentucky in both meetings last year. They’re on the road here, however, and on the road they’ve put up 47, 48, and 52 this year. I really like the makeup of the Fresno State team with the return of Shepp as I’ve mentioned numerous times before. They’ve been pretty bad on the road, but they’ve taken care of business in the games they needed to. The home team has won the last six games in the series as well. There are a few dynamics at play here. First, both teams have important guards that are missing. Guard play should be the determining factor in who wins this ballgame. This is actually one of the few games of the year that Fresno has a decent advantage at the guard slot despite poor play, but it looks like Steed is going to be out. Second, Fresno goes on the road for the first time in a while, while Louisiana Tech returns home for the first time in a while. La Tech has also had a few more days to prepare here too after they mailed it in with a 30 point loss at Idaho to end their recent three game roady. I like Fresno’s makeup, but the situational spot appears to be Louisiana Tech here. Wright State’s defense should be able to control UIC. UIC has consistently scored in the 50’s this year and last against tough defensive squads and this should be no different here. Wright State has much better guards, and their guards can not only score, but they defend extremely well too. They should be able to slow Kreps down quite a bit here as they did last year. Kreps was 5-23 from the floor if you combine both meetings last year and the team scored 47 and 43 in those meetings. If you limit Kreps from scoring, you limit the team. Add in the fact that Wright State’s offense has been awful on the road, and this might be a good spot for an under. I value Detroit a bit better than Loyola CHI and I still think Loyola CHI could be a bit over-valued at this point in the season, but I need a bit more time to evaluate. This Detroit team is pretty much about to hit the same spot as Loyola did last year. They’re young, they play a ton of minutes, and it’s going to catch up with them at some point (Loyola same style last year, started 11-2, finished 3-14). It’s probably a good idea to take a look at any team that Lafayette is laying points to in the Sun Belt, but having Troy on the opposite sideline doesn’t really make things easier. However, in this spot, it does a little bit. Both teams own one win over a Division One opponent and Troy’s played a much rougher schedule. Troy’s coming off a 41 point loss at the hands of Utah State which is not all that bad, but they have to be itching to play after having a total of 13 days off since that game. Their lone conference loss this year came at the hands of Florida Atlantic and their last four games have been played without the most important part of their roster and leading scorer in Vernon Taylor. The team is essentially brand new from the team that finished second in the conference last year, except for Taylor, who was a key part of that squad. Having the necessary time off to heal an ankle injury, and get everyone a breather and on the same page should benefit them here coming off a beating. Furthermore, this is a kid who has quoted the revenge angle from last year’s game where he scored a whopping two points. As for the style of play and matchups, it could not work into Troy’s favor more than this game. ULL doesn’t feature a standout scorer, and they play a similar style to Troy. ULL is awful at distributing the basketball, same can be said for Troy. Both teams shoot free throws horribly and both teams like to get out and go. The difference here is that Troy has been playing this way for years, and they’re used to this style of play. I think that fact, combined with the fact that ULL is not accustomed to or has yet to show success with this style, sets up for a nice play here even with an awful defense. Last year they had a nice presence and a few go-to guys in a half-court setting. They’ve resulted in the quantity over quality tidbit this year b/c they don’t have a roster that can play in the half court due to so many newcomers. This game should be dominated by the guards, and I’ll take my chances. I think Troy wants it more in this spot with the revenge and time off. I hesitated going to the over here in this game with the amount of shots that could potentially be taken and two awful defenses, but a lot of these shots should be taken from long range, and unless something happens out of the norm to where these teams shoot free throws and actually make them, then the value in the over is not present. Some of these shot totals in Troy games this year have been UNBELIEVABLY high, and one teams attempted 60+ in every game. It’s only happened three times on the ULL side of things, and they lost all three of them obviously. Games like this are hit or miss, but I see value in the over if the free throws go in...
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Posted:
#330
...Stanford and Arizona State is not all that of an appealing game to look at, nor watch. Oregon lost by 15 at Virginia in a slower style and against a lesser defense. Washington should be able to name their # I would think if there is no letdown with the UCLA victory. I’d like to take a shot with Loyola Marymount at home here, as they’ve been pretty decent in home conference games, especially when big names comes to town. They just don’t match-up well here in my opinion. Illinois/Northwestern team that makes their three-pointers wins, team that doesn’t loses. It’s pretty awful that Illini basketball has got to this point of depending on the three-ball, but it is what it is. Pacific/Poly SLO reaks of a game in the 40’s. All my love for UC Davis this year can be thrown out the window for a day at least as UC Santa Barbara is one of the teams in the conference that brings in enough size to guard Harden and Payne. UC Davis has virtually been going up and down for a few weeks now on the court in terms of style of play, and this should be a bit slower style than what they’ve been playing with a great defense in UCSB coming to town. The size and length of Orlando Johnson and Nunally here should be able to slow Payne and Harden as I have mentioned as fantastic tall guards in many previous posts. Not only that, but UC Santa Barbara’s weaknesses are masked in this matchup. I could go into detail for days on these teams, but I’ll leave it at this. This is one of those types of games where defense and role players should prevail. UCSB obviously has the better defense, and I can argue they have the better offensive game as well, but basically here we are crossing out Nunally/Johnson with Payne/Harden. I’m going to trust the UCSB roles, more than UC Davis, and I can do it with confidence. The emergence of Eddie Miller for UC Davis playing the fourth guard spot has been a pretty big component of recent success, but if he’s going to see the court as much as he has tonight, then UC Santa Barbara has an unbelievable advantage in the paint and will get layups galore. Miller’s been playing extremely good, but if he’s in the lineup the same amount of minutes as in past instances, I think it hurts them tonight. Piss on the points, the ML is cheap enough. San Diego is on the fifth game of a six game roady, but Pepperdine’s style of play should allow for some easy San Diego buckets. Oregon State and Washington State is just a really weird matchup. Two teams that use to play at an alarming slow pace now speed it up and get up and down and get out and run and both can score. I left it at that. These two teams matchup’s totals haven’t been above the 120’s in YEARS. Cal doesn’t interest me at all this year, I can’t figure them out. I’m going to continue to lean to Boise State unders as their focus is on the defensive side of the ball this year and it’s shown. San Jose State offense is far from gifted, so I’ll hope for a Boise letdown before taking off for a ballgame with Hawaii on Saturday, and some continued awful offense on the road. I flat out love the spot for Furman, hate the matchups. College of Charleston’s current four game road trip (this is the third game) is going through it’s ups and downs. In the first game, they upset Tennessee by scoring 91, then falter at snail pace Morehead and only put up 49. Now they draw in what was the hottest team in the conference shooting wise (before they played in a tournament that featured slow-pace teams), and then next up, they go to projected conference champ Wofford on Saturday. Up, Down, Up, Down. It’s a rough four ballgames. I think they have a favorable edge in terms of talent in this matchup, but I wouldn’t touch the spot with revenge on Wofford. If both teams show up, this is the game of the night to watch. I have a hard time looking at Eastern Kentucky games after the pitiful showing they put on at Tennessee State. Speaking of Tennessee State, I like that under at Murray State. I’m a little worried of Murray State scoring at will on this defense of TSU, but I’m going to curb that worry and put it into use with the lookahead to Austin Peay on Saturday. Hopefully we see a dropoff on the offensive side of things rather than the defensive side. Tennessee State’s defense is generally one that is risky, going for a ton of steals, and giving up easy buckets but Cooper got away from it when conference play started. He reverted back in the Memphis game to a degree, and it could have been more of a philosophy of let’s go out and see what we can do. If my guess is correct that he goes back to the slow style and maximizing the half-court effort, this one should stay under. If Northern Arizona can look past the fact that Weber State strolls into town on Saturday, they should be able to name their number. They have matchup advantages and pretty much every position, and their offense works best against the zone which is what Idaho State tends to play. Their zone is probably one of the worst I’ve ever witnessed and I’m not sure why they stick with it. It might work against some of the lesser in this conference, but it won’t work against the uppers, and the good shooting teams, and Northern Arizona is one of those good shooting teams. I’d like to point towards the over, but I hate playing overs when zones are present (even bad ones), and I can’t rely on Idaho State’s offense to put up points. Brace yourselves, the best bet here might be the chalk...
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Posted:
#331
...I’m not really sure what to make of Montana in this spot. I think they’re the best team in the conference but the road might not be the best place to play them. They’re had two great offensive games in their previous conference matchups, although they have faced some pretty bad defenses as of late. I can’t expect this offense to keep playing like it is, as they are average at best and rely on their defense. As for Northern Colorado, their defense is nothing special and they try to win ballgames by outscoring you. I’ve pointed out the offensive weapons this team has in past notes, but this is really one of the toughest styles to match up with. They’ve played some bigger name defenses, but those bigger name defenses also had their own arsenal of great offense so they still ran with them. I’m not sure Montana wants to run, I think they want to defend here. Just a really weird matchup at this point in the season. Learn from it and use it in February, I guess. I’m not even looking at Sacramento State games the rest of the year probably as they’re offense is bad, along with their defense. Both teams also have potential look aheads. Some pretty interesting games in the Summit League with IUPUI/Oakland and Oral Roberts/NDSTU. IUPUI plays one of the slowest brands of basketball in the country, and they were successful with it against Oakland last year. Both games never climbed out of the 130’s and it took a bunch of late fouling for the second matchup to even get in the 130’s. Playing an Oakland under is scary as I found out back against Tennessee when they played them. I think IUPUI has enough offensive weapons to run if they choose to do so, but I’d be confused if they went that route. Slowing Oakland down is no easy task and if Sullinger can put up 40, then why can’t Benson. It’s the main difference between this year and last. Last year, IUPUI had Robert Glenn on the inside and they could slow the tempo to get him looks as he was their best scorer. This year, he’s gone, and with him gone, so too, is their best rebounder and shot-blocker. They may try to play slow here, but I don’t think it’s a possibility with the current roster. They could fall behind early, give up some easy buckets and then the wheels come off and it’s up and down they go. I could be wrong, they could be successful in slowing it down, but I don’t see it this year. Try - probably. Success – not as possible as last year. The other Summit game that should be a decent game is Oral Roberts and North Dakota State. Coming in, obviously as I have touched on this before, Oral Roberts was probably going to challenge Oakland for the league title. Again, I’ve gone off on Craion before and how much he meant to this Oral Roberts team, so I will leave it at that. Now, they’ve lost Dominique Morrison, who like Craion, was a Mr. Everything. He scored, he rebounded, he was an integral part of their offense. With that said, North Dakota State is favored. If either of these guys are healthy, the line is reversed. North Dakota State is generally a team that plays TONS better at home, and they have been playing flat out horrible basketball. Losses to Southern Utah and UMKC are flat out embarrassing, regardless of where the game is played. With that said, I still think the value is on Oral Roberts despite the injuries. For years, Scott Sutton consistently brings in his type of players that he wants that fit his system. Players like Craion are not replaceable. Those types of players are special. But with Morrison, his injury really doesn’t mean all that much. Sutton will have the player ready to step in and contribute. It may not happen immediately due to inexperience, but he will find someone on the current roster to replace him. I’m not going to invest in this spot here, but I feel like I’m missing out on a key opportunity to do so. North Dakota State was a 9 and 13 point dog in this spot last year with similar matchups. Like I said, the loss to Craion could be a big part of that, but I expect others to fill the void, and fill it quickly. Both totals last year lined in the mid 130’s, and now we get a total in the mid 140’s with all this offense missing; product of the system.
Bets
UC Santa Barbara ML -145 (2 Units)
Troy +7 (1 Unit)
Tennessee State/Murray State Under 130 (1 Unit)
DNP: Troy/Lafayette Over 145, Boise State/San Jose State Under 144.5
GL
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Posted:
#335
Nropp11, Happy New Year and thanks for the time and input in helping us all. I just had a question that I was very curious about? Do you not bet NBA? I for one am disgusted with what can happen on any given night, example last night Minny at home against a terrible road team as Charlotte minus Jackson and Wallace, and are down 15 at the half and then come back, but eventually lose. Was just curious as if you don't bet NBA for the reason of the major inconsistency? And would luv to hear you input on betting NBA vs College. BOL and thanks again
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Posted:
#337
Thanks for all the insight Niel on all the games---even the ones you don't bet.
Keep up the good work!
So ready for Big 12 play to start!!!
Know you did not do your bowl picks this year but any opinion on tonight's game just for a winner...need it for my pick em and know nothing about either squad...you were always solid in MAC. Thanks!
Keep up the good work!
So ready for Big 12 play to start!!!
Know you did not do your bowl picks this year but any opinion on tonight's game just for a winner...need it for my pick em and know nothing about either squad...you were always solid in MAC. Thanks!
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?!?!?!?!? whats up MENACE
Posted:
#344
I'm new to your thread,nropp, and I am impressed with the depth of your analyses. I am with you on the Gauchos... listened to the game at SDSU, and they actually outscored the Aztecs in the 2nd half, but couldn't come back from a huge 1st half deficit. but it shows there is no quit in them. I think they are a better team than their record shows and expect them to get stronger down the line. Thanks for your insight, will be checking your thread from now on.
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