Friday nights "trap" special: Buffalo @ Toledo

Three points.... Three measly points after losing by 30 points on their last match up. Doesn't this line seem a bit fishy? Shouldn't it be higher because Buffalo usually lays at the minimum, 8 or more points on the road? If I had to give a spread for this game, it'd be in the range of -8 through -15 after that 30 point victory but for tonight, Buffalo is just laying a measly 3.  To me, something smells fishy here. That's why I'm gonna go against the "obvious" easy win and roll with:

Toledo +3.5

Again, hopefully this isn't one of those scenarios where the better team just blows out their compeitor. Let's hope that Toledo is at least leading up the the finaly minute of the game or a flat out, Buffalo just doesn't show up.

As usual, bet sensibly and BOL whether you tail or fade.. 

Let me know your thoughts and opinions.. 

Smart money looks to be on Toledo. Opened at -2.5 and was blasted by the public up to 66% at one point in the day, only made the line jump 1 point. I'll take Toledo and the pts.

Toledo +2.5 moved to +3.5****

BUFF are 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings. I guess that means nothing.

It looks like the fishy -4.5 points to the Golden State Warriors last night, that made a lot of bettors buy it without thinking first.

This is true, but Toledo is 9-4 SU in their last 13. Buffalo has had trouble their last few road games, they barely beat Akron 76-70, they aren't very good. They also lost to Bowling Green 92-88, better than Akron, both much better home teams then road teams. Insert Toledo who is great at home 13-1 SU. 9-4 ATS, they also beat both Akron 63-52, and BG on the road 78-71. Could be reading to much into this,  Buffalo could blow the doors off this one 10 minutes in, but I see alot to like in Toledo. 

Vegas has been making some bad lines lately like last night with ill +8.Buffalo is the better team.Should be close either way.

Beneficient,

I look for "odd/unusual" lines. Now you may ask, "What are "odd/unusual" lines? These are odds are "not within their normal" range. Qualification for "odd/unusual" lines are:

-Teams that usually lay double digits, all of a sudden laying low single digits (I'm aware of the injury/rest report,being on the road, back 2 back games, etc)

-Extremely high/low O/U's

-Teams with a better record getting points

-Teams with a worse record laying points

And a bunch more that I don't want to list. From there on, I'll use my way of analyzing and come up with a decision on whether or not to bet them. Am I always right? Of course not but I usually like to bet against the obvious pick.

Toledo is 20-4 and 9-1 at home.  That is why they are not 8pt dogs like previous home teams vs buffalo.  Bowling green was an 8pt dog at home and beat buffalo.

This my friends is what we call a revenge game. After losing by 30 Toledo has responded  winning 8 out of 9.  The home field advantage plays a roll here and I think Toledo +4 Currently is the play 

Buffalo is 2-6 ats their last eight games so betting on them every hame thete is a losing situation.

100% Toledo + 3

Let me play Devils Advocate here Toledo got blown out by 30 pts, in the last game over a month ago. 

Will The Rockets let that happen again on their own field, teams do and will make adjustments, I'm sure they won't let that happen again will they?

I'll risk taking the Home dog & the +pts here in a closer game this time around.

BG is pretty damn good.

I don't see Toledo turning the ball over 17 times again. So, I say no blowout, but just lose by 4. :-)

Those turnovers and points off turnovers and fast break points made that game ugly. I also expect a cleaner game offensively, which should also help on the defensive side. 

For what it’s worth, I have Toledo ML so Buffalo will probably win by 50.

I know bg is good.  Maybe the lines are lower because buffalo isn't covering now.  Buf 2-6 ats their last eight games and 1-4 their last five road games.

Buffalo was up by 8 at half against BG and BG won the game.

I don't think"the public" is lining up to bet Buffalo vs Rockets. They are not blasting a game like this one.