Posted:
#1
November: 46-38, +5.20
November Leans: 39-38
December: 58-64, -5.25
December Leans: 59-70
3*Furman/NC Wilmington Over 131.5
Game pits two above average offenses against two below average defenses, but that’s not the key here. The key is, these two teams are about as identical as any two teams in the country as far as what they want to do from both an offensive and defensive standpoint. And it’s nothing special. The teams have both had at least a week off to prepare, and throughout that week the offenses have been going up against exactly what they’ll be seeing tonight. The familiarity should be there. Both teams are coming off decent performances against BCS schools, and both start conference play next week. This just seems like one of those “filler” games, and that’s exactly what I should see. Two offenses that can score on a consistent basis against two defenses who can’t really get any worse, but should look the part tonight. I’m a little concerned with Furman being on the tail end of a four game roady, but there wasn’t much travel involved and they’ve had the little break with Christmas. Neither team pressures the guards all that well, so both teams should get shots from where they want them. NC Wilmington’s leading scorer, freshman Adam Smith has been consistent outside of a two game stretch (one of those came where Briante Weber held him to 5 points, and the Ferguson kid from Campbell held him to 8 I believe. Both of these players are defensive studs, and Furman has nobody that can do this). Smith’s coming off a 32 point performance against Wake Forest where Buzz Peterson gave him more offensive freedom, so the #’s should continue to come through. With Furman, it’s pretty obvious that they depend on the three ball quite a bit and have in recent years, but this year they’re getting the ball into the post a bit more and it’s opening up even more opportunities. With NC Wilmington’s lack of pressure out front, nothing should be out of the ordinary here in terms of what they want to do. Game lines itself up to go over the #, just need some shots to fall.
2* Oakland/South Dakota State Over 173.5
1* South Dakota State -6.5
Number is a bit steep, but it’s up there for a reason. South Dakota State has now scored 90+ in every game in December except for two games. The first game came against snail Western Illinois, and the second game came in a flat spot on the road against North Dakota where they scored 70, four days after scoring 92 on the same team. It’s pretty much a given that any team that welcomes Oakland into their own arena is going to get up for the game b/c they’ve won the league the past two years. As for Oakland, they laid an egg the last time out against North Dakota State, but comparing NDSU’s defense to SDSU’s defense is like comparing apples and oranges. In last year’s meetings, Oakland scored 110, 105, and 97 on SDSTU. It’s time for SDSTU to return the favor, and they should get to 100+ here with triple revenge from last year. There won’t be any laying off the gas pedal here, just need some help from the Oakland offense on the total, and should get it.
2* IPFW/North Dakota State Under 147
IPFW visits North Dakota State on the back end of a four game roady, where they have scored 56 and 58 points in the past two games. In the most recent game, they only scored 58 on one of the worst defenses in the conference. Now they play one of the best defenses in the conference in North Dakota State who just held an impressive Oakland offense to 69 points. Speaking of, that’s the first time they have beaten Oakland in about three years, so this becomes a sandwich spot with Oral Roberts on deck. The pace of this one will be up and down, but the intangibles should lead to some bad shooting. NDSU is coming off a game they shot 65% and that rarely happens two games in a row and IPFW is coming off the fastest team in the conference in SDSTU and has to rebound just two days later. From a matchup standpoint, NDSU’s guard pressure will force IPFW to take some dumb shots or force the ball into the post. Really a no-brainer in pointing to the under in this spot, for me at least.
1* Princeton/Florida State Over 118.5
I think there is some value here. Florida State’s marquee games against Harvard and Michigan State were both snails, and both happen to be the fewest # of possessions in a game that FSU has been a part of this year. Take those two matchups away, and they’re averaging 73 possessions a game which would be good for a top 10 pace ranking. The FSU defense is good, I can agree with that, but it’s a different scheme they’ll be facing against this offense tonight, and something that they’re not too familiar with. It’s like taking a good rush defense and making them go up against the option, and not being able to defend it because it’s “different”. Against tough defenses (in the top 100), Princeton has posted point totals of 57, 71, 59, and 60. If they can get into the 50’s, this one should have a chance. As for Florida State, they’re a much better offensive team at home in recent years, and they’ve faced tougher defenses than this in the last month, so they shouldn’t look too bad. Florida State’s never beaten an IVY League school, the effort should be there tonight.
1* George Mason +3.5
Revenge, and a little break to get Cornelius more in tune and involved. Mason has faced two pressing styles in a row, so COC’s defense (or lack thereof), and style of play getting up and down should help the Mason offense out and look a bit more realistic than what they have been. If Tennessee is a -2.5 here, then a healthy Mason team shouldn’t be getting more.
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