Posted:
#26
@spottie2935
@nfl_brosuf
@rangersmets
Embrace the Grind
Florida Man Sunday
Posted:
#30
@Florida Man- I use your same metrics but layer in a few more. I am not here to question your play, this game just has some red flags attached to it. My model has deemed this a no bet due to the following...
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Injury Status: As indicated in your scouting report, Elijah Lewis (BPR 1.22) is not just a starter—he’s the team's heart. He is now officially OUT for the season (Knee).
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Depth Crisis: With Tarik Watson also sidelined (Knee), Marist’s interior rotation is dangerously thin. The scouting report shows Jason Schofield (6'10") is now their only true rim protector, but his DBPR is just 1.08.
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The Rotation Void: Marist’s most efficient five-man lineup (+32.3 margin) is no longer viable. In their first game without Lewis (Feb 12 vs. Merrimack), they were dismantled 81-56. They are currently a "zombie team" playing on tired legs and reduced depth.
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Metric Outlier: Marist ranks 7th in the nation in "Defense Against Shots Attacking Rim." However, this was achieved primarily when Lewis and Watson were healthy. Without them, that ranking is a legacy stat.
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Free Throw Disparity: Marist is Rank 357 in FTA/FGA (getting to the line). They don't draw fouls. Meanwhile, Siena’s Gavin Doty (21 pts in the last meeting) excels at rim pressure. Without interior depth, Marist will be forced to foul to stop Doty, leading to a massive FT advantage for Siena.
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Style Component: Marist is Rank 353 in Transition Efficiency. If Siena pushes the pace (using Justice Shoats’ 4.5 APG), Marist lacks the depth to keep up in a track meet.
- Not here to criticize or bash, I know you are very thorough and you have probably considered these factors, they are just thin at the moment. <
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