Final Four data breakdown: what the numbers say heading into the weekend

Three weeks of tournament data and some clear patterns have emerged:

Defensive efficiency has been the strongest predictor of tournament success this year. Teams in the top 25 of KenPom adjusted defense consistently outperformed their seeds.

Tempo mismatches created the most consistent betting edges. Fast vs slow matchups almost always played closer to the slower team's pace, making unders valuable.

Public money on marquee programs created value on the other side. The market was sharpest in lower-profile games.

I've been tracking all of this through a free AI model at youbetcha.bet. Every pick comes with confidence scores and full reasoning, all results tracked publicly.

What's everyone looking at for the Final Four?

Illinois' No. 1 offense (per Pomeroy) should get the better of UCon. Tempos and defenses are about the same.