Buggered by the Maths

I am so sick of getting math fucked by lines and books. 

Yesterday, I went to bet Fresno St plus 10.5 and -118. After deciding to swallow that shit -118, as I was making the bet the line moved to 9.5, -112- still get shaved by the juice. So I am leaving the coverage area so i make the bet. Not huge, 100 bucks.

Of course, I lost by 1/2. In the final 2 minutes, Fresno does everything it can to blow the spread. turnovers, no rebounds, missed shots. What amazes me, time and time again, is how perfect the lines seem to be- and then you get the math whooping on top of perfect lines.

If y'all want to try and beat a game where you are guaranteed to lose 18% that means you must be right v the spread 69% of the time to make 1 percent. If ya think you are that good by all means, stab away.

The best game of the day was the 3 ot, missed 75% of their shots, and barely broke 100- SE M v UTM. What an ugly, great game that was. So I'm gonna just lurk 'till the tourney- if I feel like wasting dough- just gonna burn some in the driveway instead. Saves time. 

BOL  

i dont know how long you been gambling but i learned to stay away from teams/matchups like those. so much fluke/amatuer shit happens. 

 Posted by Money4Nuthin     I went to bet Fresno St plus 10.5 and -118. After deciding to swallow that shit -118, as I was making the bet the line moved to 9.5, -112- ..... did not read all and maybe should not comment ..but bouncing around and saw this... at fanduel there is a feature to NOT ACCEPT line moves.... if this helps fine if not sorry about the post... good luck down the road..signed .. pg a live bettor  

@usikbasterd

 My problem is that in the 50 years I've been doing this, I still cannot tell you which teams/matchups you are referring to. I actually thought Fresno could win that game outright just like SEMO did as a small dog.

@PUSSYGALORE333

 I was leaving the DK coverage area for home, so had to make the bet or pass. I didn't think for a second they'd have trouble covering that spread.

I agree: any juice over 10% is criminal, also unbeatable for most bettors.

Most blown covers result from turnovers. Each turnover in basketball has the potential of a 4 point swing. Here's a simple rule that with save you some stress, and money in the long run: Never bet a team whose 'turnovers per possession' stat is greater than 16%. (Fresno State's is 18.2%.)

BOL,

RT2

Utm/smiss, I had that game figured for about 118 points. I wasn't worried about overtime. Bet under the low unders and over the high overs... Best of luck to you my friend

@RebelTell2

 Excellent tip. Thank you.