2 ncaa games for tomorrow with stats and writeups

 Army +4 @ Lehigh

• ATS signal: Army is 5–0 ATS on the road and 7–4 ATS overall. Lehigh is 5–6 ATS and just 1–2 ATS at home.

• Team quality: Records are similar (Army 6–7, Lehigh 4–9), but Lehigh is being asked to cover a decent number here despite not proving they can consistently separate.

• Market vs reality: Getting +4 with the team that’s been covering, especially away from home, against a struggling favorite is the kind of dog you want in your portfolio.

Play: Army +4

Buffalo -6.5 @ Northern Illinois

• Strength profile: Buffalo is 11–2 overall, 4–1 on the road, and 8–3 ATS. NIU is 5–7, but 4–1 at home—respectable, not scary.

• Form edge: Buffalo is 8–2 in their last 10 with a positive ATS record; NIU is 4–6 last 10 and 3–5 ATS in that span.

  • Number vs profile: Laying -6.5 with a team that has both win-rate and ATS form on its side, against a mediocre opponent, is exactly the kind of favorite you want to back—good enough to separate, not priced into oblivion.

  Play: Buffalo -6.5

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i have 2 nba games too

Minnesota -4.5 @ Atlanta

• Edge logic:

  • Minnesota is the clearly stronger team: 21–12 overall, 9–6 on the road, facing a 15–19 Atlanta team that’s 5–11 at home. 

  • ATS form matters: Atlanta is 2–8 last 10, while Minnesota is a stable 6–4. That’s not just noise—that’s a team consistently failing to meet market expectations vs one roughly matching or beating them.

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  • The line at -4.5 implies only modest separation on a neutral; given Atlanta’s defensive inconsistency and poor home performance, this number is very reasonable for a favorite of Minnesota’s profile. Verdict: This is the cleanest favorite on the board. I’d rate this as the top play.

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Phoenix +6 @ Cleveland

• Edge logic:

  • Phoenix is 19–13 overall, 9–8 on the road, and 11–6 ATS on the road—they travel well and are often undervalued away from home.

  • Cleveland is solid but 10–24 ATS overall and 5–14 ATS at home—the market has consistently overpriced them in this building.

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  • Getting +6 with the better ATS profile and comparable overall quality is exactly the kind of spot where you want to be catching points, not laying them.Verdict: Strong value on the dog against a chronically overpriced home team.
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Nice calls on college hoops. 

adding xavier + 11.5

adding chicago bulls -2

@tryn2makeabuck

 Tailed both your college olays

@tryn2makeabuck

 They did!