Posted:
#1
2* Kansas St -8 @ WV
If you can't close you can't cover.
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2-18 Monday
Posted:
#7
Quote Originally Posted by Courtesy_Flush:
WV was a 4pt underdog at Kansas State, now they are 8pt underdog at home? Has much changed since the first meeting between these 2 teams that there's such a big difference in spreads?
WV was a 4pt underdog at Kansas State, now they are 8pt underdog at home? Has much changed since the first meeting between these 2 teams that there's such a big difference in spreads?
I have a similar question. The first time they played, K St won by 2 at home. Were both teams at full strength? Thanks and good luck.
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Posted:
#8
Courtesy_Flush & Ionfident
Plenty has changed since that game on Jan 9.
I've played all 25 WV games to date and I'm 20-5 on the sides with several of those being 4* and 5* plays. I think all the rest were 3* plays. I didn't keep track of all my Under plays but I hit a bunch of those too, especially in their pre- Conference slate. I knew they didn't have the personnel to be "Press Virginia" and were going to struggle to score points so I played against them and Under against over inflated lines in every game. I will add that WV played a very weak early schedule.(SOS 300+ at the time) Their prices and totals were high because of their reputation. They were laying big spreads and totals were in the 160's. The BM didn't adjust because the "public" kept playing them like they were at the same level of previous editions when in reality they weren't even close to being the same team they had been. The loss of Jevon Carter ( now with the Memphis Grizzlies) and Daxter Miles (playing overseas) at the guard positions was huge, magnified by the fact there were no capable replacements with enough athleticism to allow WV to play at their preferred frenetic uptempo pace, particuarly in regards to a full court non-stop pressure defense all over the floor. They no longer force 20 turnovers a game, or more, which turned into easy transition buckets.
Enough on that, I'll answer your question.
The KSt game was the first game I played on WV taking the +4.5. I did that because it was a definite that Dean Wade was not going to play due to his injured foot. I also thought Barry Brown wasn't going to play due to injury as well. Turned out Brown did eventually play even though still injured. These two guys are Weber's best players without question. Without Wade KSt is a sub .500 team. Look at their record while he was out. When he returned is when they went on their winning streak and began playing on the high level they presently maintain.
WV had a 20-3 lead with 9 minutes to go in the 1st half. It ended up 36-21 at the break. WV built the lead to 21 points with about 16 minutes to go. Brown led KSt on a furious comeback. The Cats took their 1st lead with 2:30 left. The game seesawed back and forth a few times until Brown scored on a layup with 29 seconds to go. WV held the ball for the last shot and Derek Culver missed a short jumper with :05 to go. Lamonte West fouled with :03 left. Green made the first putting KSt up 71-69, missed the second one. WV's desperation heave was to no avail.
Did you read my writeup for last Saturdays game? Huggins dismissed Sr F 6'8" Esa Ahmad and Jr F 6'8" Wesley Harris from the team last week due to "violations of athletic department policy". Ahmad had played in 112 games and started 102 of those. He averaged almost 13 ppg and 6 rpg this season. Harris was considered WV's best perimeter defender and averaged 8 ppg and 5 rpg. He started in 57 games.
In addition, Sags Konate remains out for WV. He is the schools all time shot blocker, a menacing goal defender who cleaned up a lot of defensive breakdowns by changing players minds and shots close to the bucket. Beetle Bolden, WV's best guard and shooter,remains injured as well, I seriously doubt if he plays tomorrow. Sags and Beetle were both averaging double figures.
This leaves WV without a combined 334 games worth of experience.
Huggins has 9 healthy scholarship players left. They average a combined 26 points per game with a combined 82 starts.
So, that is why the # has changed significantly from their first game this year.
KSt has Wade and Brown back and healthy and both playing well.
WV is without Ahmad, Harris, Konate, and Bolden.
I will also note that the BM has caught up to WV and has adjusted their prices now that the betting public has finally caught on to WVs current reality and level of play.
Feel free to ask any questions. I will answer them if I have the time. Also feel free to comment pro or con on any play or insights I make. That's what this forum is supposed to be about.
If you can't close you can't cover.
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Posted:
#13
JohnnyChalk
Obviously, I would prefer that Wade be 100%. From what I've read Weber says that it is not the same injury. He says he just tweeked it, and calls it a soft tissue injury. One of the articles I read said it would be up to Wade to play or not. One of the local papers out there suggested Weber should sit him out. You gotta love those armchair coaches.
I think it is going to be a game time decision.
Wade did play some in the second half against ISU after initially going to the bench in the first half. He had 9 points and 5 rebounds.
Mako Maiwen is playing alright. He had 10 points and 7 boards vs ISU. In the game before he had 11 points and 4 boards vs Texas.
Cont'd
If you can't close you can't cover.
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Posted:
#16
Until WV solves their current worsening trends of poor shooting and turnovers I'm not real concerned about it.
WV only had 42 points until the final minutes during mop up time Saturday. They scored 11 points in the final 2 minutes to end up with 53. They shot 20-59 for the game, 3-23 from deep, 13%. 
They also had 24 turnovers. A season long problem.
Two games ago against TX Tech they had 3 field goals and 14 turnovers at the half. Ended up 9-39 for the game with 26 turnovers.
They went 15 minutes thru the last part of the 1st H into the 2nd half with a 15 minute drought of no field goals. Only 50 points for the game. A lot of those coming against the TT bomb squad after Beard had called the dogs off.
The game after that against Texas they went almost 5 minutes without a point to start the game. Ended up 18-51, 35 % and 3-16 from deep, 13%.
That's 3 straight games of unbelievably bad shooting.
KSt is a great defensive team so I don't see WV lighting the scoreboard up all of a sudden. I guess one could argue that they are overdue for a good shooting game. That's certainly possible but I don't know how probable it is. But they're going to have to prove it to me.
With Bolden, Konate, and now Ahmad and Harris gone I honestly don't know where there points are going to come from. I'd say Huggins has the same concerns.
KSt is still playing for the Big 12 Championship. I don't see them relaxing their defensive game at all.
With Brown and Stokes, both with lots of experience, the Wildcats are going to have a big edge at the guard play against WV's young backcourt.
JohnnyChalk
Your concerns are legitimate, I'm not saying they're not. If you noticed, I'm not making a big 3*, 4,* or 5* play on this game like I have been.
I played a 2* on the game because I don't think it is as strong a play as the other ones were and I don't like making a habit of laying a bunch of points on the road.
If you don't feel comfortable with that go smaller or pass. I for one want no part of backing WV until they show me they have resolved their season long issues with a string of good games.
I've said this in many of these writeups. I'm going to keep playing against them until I get my azz burnt real good.
Bol
If you can't close you can't cover.
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Posted:
#23
Thanks ChrisNYC
Following WV's blowout loss to Kansas.
"We haven't defended all year. We're horrible," Huggin said. This the worst defensive team that I think I've ever had. We don't put pressure on the ball. We don't get to the ball. We don't handle screens well. We don't do much right to be honest."
Huggy Bear went on to say that their defensive issues go beyond physical limitations.
If you can't close you can't cover.
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Posted:
#25
^^ this is what i was curious about as well. tech hasn't looked the same with the lack of depth at their guard position. they just don't have the fire power they once had from the three. virginia stomped them on their home turf with a fully healed tech team i believe, so why wouldn't they do the same at home now? i know hokes do very well for themselves as home dogs but they're pretty limited here
No team is as good as it looks when winning nor are they as bad as they look when losing
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