Week 2 Indigo lines

2-3 season-to-date

Montreal was the most impressive week 1 team....their quarterback is exceptional, as is their defense.  

Tre Ford doesn't look like a professional level quarterback....he'll generate a huge amount of big plays with his legs.....I wouldn't rush more than 2 guys against him and play linebackers instead of defensive linemen that stay around the line of scrimmage.  Blitzing against a running quarterback plays into that qb's hands.  Edmonton's defense is much improved though, this year.

The Tiger Cats looked like they'll have the worst D in the CFL.....a lotta high scoring games for them.

BC is going to attract a lot of bettor's money this season,.....think they'll struggle against teams that play against Rourke's ability to run.

I am not predicting what Vegas' lines will be......

                 Week 2 Indigo's lines

  a)  Bombers      -3   Lions           44

  b)  Redblacks   +3  Alouettes      46    

  c)  Argos           -5  Stampeders  46

  d)  T'Cats         +3  Roughriders  49

Used to be that bookmakers were deathly afraid to post a betting line on the CFL, and they often waited until late in the week.....

Now Fanduel has them up on Sunday night.

Here we go....

  a)  Bombers +1'    48'                Lions

  b)  Redblacks -1'   49'                Alouettes

  c)  Argonauts -3'   50'                Stampeders

  d)  T'Cats     +4'   50'                Roughriders  

@Indigo999

 Because if you are any good,  bet a lot and expose them, they can decide to either limit the player or tell them to cash out and leave.  

Curious to know?  Do you think it’s coincidence that ever since your fabulous season, was it 2019 ? That the dogs are no longer winning with any consistency? 

Back In the early 2000’s I exposed the books at the middle of end of the season with back up QBs that had no business other than hold clip boards and giving the play call signals. They had easy to beat second half lines but those dogs also had very little running stats.  Jags Browns all those teams couldn’t play and the book still kept laying low lines In 20-0 type half time games.  Now those low lines are not really there anymore and those inept qbs aren’t on the field any longer.  

Shout out to Spurgeon Wynn 

CFL favorites 3-1 and totals 2-2 nothing to see here yet and week 1 is a big dog week.  

I suspect unders to balance the recent over surge but as a league scoring is up.  Only certain teams with regress consistently. 

Was it 2019?

I doubt the linemaker is tuning into our little conversations.

From a few years ago in the CFL the totals were typically in the 50s.....you never see that now....the books have adjusted.  I actually played an OVER this weekend that I didn't post that got the money.  The average total is probably 7 points less than it used to be, and offenses are better as well and the quarterbacks overall are the best that the CFL has even seen in totality.  The default is now OVER in the CFL.

Montreal and Edmonton will be UNDER teams, and Ottawa and Hamilton will be OVER teams.

Calgary and Montreal will be side cash cows, both good running attacks, and Calgary's defense is 10 points/game better than last season...........and Hamilton's defense might actually be worse than it was last season, if that's possible.

Adams for Calgary actually had a bad game for the Stamps and they still cruised.....they will be much tougher this season without Maier at qb....they should win at least 9 games.

I'm a bit worried about the Elks, as they got the Lions' o coordinator from last year who basically ruined Rourke....their defense is much better, but other than Ford scrambling around like Fran Tarkenton I didn't see anything good out of their offense.

I agree with that.

as far as the totals go i think the default is the total at the moment.  The Argos usto be run and play D beck in those days so A low total was always on the are that total was rarely below 50.

currently only a few exceptions but any thing lower than 49 is not an under anymore.  The league is trying to create scoring with rule changes and more penalties. Some of the old data is getting stale because of all this.   We need to elevate to totals back to 50 being low and 52.5 or 53 being the standard.  

hot over teams are really consistent, maybe until the over line escalates to extreme levels.

Some angles relevant to this week's games.

1)  A home dog before week 6 that played in at least 2 playoff games the season prior,....15-5 ATS.....ON Bombers

2)  A non-divisional away favorite that will be a road dog their next game before week 6.....11-22 ATS....VERSUS Saskatchewan (predicated on the availability of Toronto's Kelly)

3)  A non-divisional away dog who missed the playoffs the season before,  before week 4 playing a team that made the playoffs the season prior.....13-6 ATS....ON Stampeders

4)  A divisional away dog before week 4 who had the better record the season before......13-4 ATS......ON Alouettes

5)  A home non-divisional dog before week 4.....24-12 ATS, including 14-6 ATS for Eastern Division teams,....this moves to 14-1 ATS if the Eastern Division home dog scores at least 20 points in the game........ON Hamilton

team=Alouettes and date>20230922

calgary had their strong past 

Winnipeg strong past but regression is starting in 

Montreal too when they had Calvillo

now Montreal is trending again. 

Plays:

1)  Bombers +125, 2 units

2)  Alouettes -105, 2 units

Plays:  adding:

3)  Calgary +3, -115, 2 units......line tells me Kelly won't be playing.

_______________________________________________________________

2)  Bombers +125....that Streveler is playing instead of Collaros  isn't necessarily a bad thing, as Home divisional dogs that outrush attempt their present opponent have gone 17-1 ATS before week 6.

1)  Alouettes -105.....Dru Brown has a hip issue.

Amending a play......

I bought out of my Calgary bet and used another book's line.....

Plays:

3)  Calgary +3', -118, 2 units

2)  Montreal -105, 2 units

1)  Bombers +125, 2 units

Dru Brown out for Ottawa,....I'm adding 2 units to my Alouette play.

The line has changed in the Bombers' game to +3.5....I spent 1/12 of a unit to buy out of my moneyline bet to take the Bombers +3.5.....the injury report has 5 linebackers not practicing for the Lions.  When a CFL home divisional dog before week 7 outrush yards their opponent they've gone 16-3 ATS.  When a home divisional dog outrush attempts their opponent they have gone 21-2 ATS before week 7.  Winnipeg will rush the ball on the Lions.

Plays:

1)  Blue Bombers +3.5, -118, 2 units

2)  Alouettes -105, 2 units

3)  Stampeders +3', -118, 2 units

4)  Alouettes -2', -115, 2 units 

Line move to +1.5 in the Stamps/Argo game.  Evidently that means that Kelly will not be playing....also McManus, the Argos' all-world linebacker has been limited in practice for the Argonauts.

I noticed that to.

Adding:

5)  Hamilton/Saskatchewan OVER 51'....1 unit

By the end of the year, management will be asking themselves "what were we thinking?" with the hire of the ex-Calgary's defensive coordinator.  Expect to see a lot of games with total scores in the 60s for Hamilton this year.

HUGE line movement in the Lions and Alouette games.  I am not yet sold on the Lions.....it'll be a good test for them tonight against a traditionally tough Winnipeg defense.  Would not be surprised if the Bombers win.

As far as Ottawa goes....Dustin Crum will run the ball at least 10 times tomorrow,....very similar to Streveler as a quarterback, it makes almost no sense to rush these guys as they take off under any semblance of pressure in the pocket.....the Justin Fields-type.

1)  Blue Bombers +3.5, -118, 2 units

2)  Alouettes -105, 2 units

3)  Stampeders +3', -118, 2 units

4)  Alouettes -2', -115, 2 units 

1)  Bombers +3', winner

Indigo line next week

Lions +2' Bombers if Rourke starts, +6 if Masoli starts.

Toronto is now a home dog in some places (but interestedly not at Sports Interaction, a Canadian bookmaker).....I may come back on Toronto and try for a middle.  Those that moved the line in the Lions' game yesterday, either/or big money or respected money were clearly wrong.

For the time being we're seeing a HUGE predisposition of the public to play on anything that Nathan Rourke puts his hands on.  He's a Canadian obviously, in a Canadian league.  The league, Canadians and me would like to see him be a superstar.  I don't think he IS that, at least right now..........he's not at the level of a Steve Nash, SGA or Connor McDavid and I don't think he ever will be.  His team has no rushing attack and their defense is below average.  My inclination is to fade him and the Lions, more than it would be to back him.  I was never really impressed with Buck Pierce's offenses in Winnipeg either.........It'll be interesting to see what the linemaker puts out for the Lions' next game.

1)  Blue Bombers +3.5, -118, 2 units.........winner

2)  Alouettes -105, 2 units.......................winner

3)  Stampeders +3', -118, 2 units

4)  Alouettes -2', -115, 2 units................winner 

5)  Hamilton/Saskatchewan OVER 51'....1 unit

Still contemplating whether I will come back on the Argos tomorrow, attempting to hit a middle....we'll see if the line moves more towards the Stamps over the next 18 hours or so.

Montreal defense won them the game....very, very clever to have their defensive line play the short passing lanes,....not done nearly enough in pro football.  The offense looked mediocre although they may have found something in that rookie running back, Theis.

Next week Indigo line......

Elks +6  48 Alouettes

Dont know if it makes a difference but the user name "Polar Bear" was banned last month.

Nice season so far