This is in part based on season wins data given by sports interaction in Canada.
30 is the highest, the higher the number, the stronger the rating.
Toronto 27
Montreal 26.5
Winnipeg 26
Ottawa 25.5
Saskatchewan 24
BC Lions 24
Hamilton 23.5
Edmonton 22.5
Calgary 21.5
Early leans, not totally based on power ratings, are:
Toronto over Montreal
Hamilton over Calgary
Edmonton over BC
Keep in mind that most seasons, away dogs dominate in the early season going 131-96-5 ATS in the first five games, 57.7%.
They also have gone 35-18-1 ATS in those games if our away dog had more wins the previous season than their present opponent.
Teams that played in 0 or 1 playoff games the season prior as home favorites have gone 51-91 ATS in the first five games of the season....those teams qualifying this season are.....Alouettes, Lions, Elks, Stampeders, Tiger Cats, Redblacks
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
This is in part based on season wins data given by sports interaction in Canada.
30 is the highest, the higher the number, the stronger the rating.
Toronto 27
Montreal 26.5
Winnipeg 26
Ottawa 25.5
Saskatchewan 24
BC Lions 24
Hamilton 23.5
Edmonton 22.5
Calgary 21.5
Early leans, not totally based on power ratings, are:
Toronto over Montreal
Hamilton over Calgary
Edmonton over BC
Keep in mind that most seasons, away dogs dominate in the early season going 131-96-5 ATS in the first five games, 57.7%.
They also have gone 35-18-1 ATS in those games if our away dog had more wins the previous season than their present opponent.
Teams that played in 0 or 1 playoff games the season prior as home favorites have gone 51-91 ATS in the first five games of the season....those teams qualifying this season are.....Alouettes, Lions, Elks, Stampeders, Tiger Cats, Redblacks
D and n:A and n:F and week<20 and playoffs=0 and p:points>8 and 42>pp:points>0 and rest!=None and date>20090901 and o:streak<7 and total>47 and opS(W)>0 and p:day!=Thursday and total<=57
no plays last season and very few each season but one might show up. If you don’t like compact and concise query’s just tinker with it. I think the original and basic query was 50-15 ats
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D and n:A and n:F and week<20 and playoffs=0 and p:points>8 and 42>pp:points>0 and rest!=None and date>20090901 and o:streak<7 and total>47 and opS(W)>0 and p:day!=Thursday and total<=57
no plays last season and very few each season but one might show up. If you don’t like compact and concise query’s just tinker with it. I think the original and basic query was 50-15 ats
In some cases one must check the validity of GTD site take a look at this and keep these possible errors in the back of your mind. F and season>2017 and week<22 and ats streak<0 32-120 ATS makes no sense for this regular occurring query result. evidence to this if I input (and season) the results for 2021 and 2022 are 0-23 and 0-27 for a combine 0-50 ats
If one substitutes "p:ats margin<0" for "ats streak<0", you get 86-89 ATS
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Quote Originally Posted by spottie2935:
In some cases one must check the validity of GTD site take a look at this and keep these possible errors in the back of your mind. F and season>2017 and week<22 and ats streak<0 32-120 ATS makes no sense for this regular occurring query result. evidence to this if I input (and season) the results for 2021 and 2022 are 0-23 and 0-27 for a combine 0-50 ats
If one substitutes "p:ats margin<0" for "ats streak<0", you get 86-89 ATS
Worth noting too, that teams off at least a 3 game ATS losing streak are 13-0 straight up...........9-0 straight up, 7-2 ATS if they've also lost at least 3 in a row straight up, if favored.
season>2017 and week<22 and p:ats streak<-2 and F
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Worth noting too, that teams off at least a 3 game ATS losing streak are 13-0 straight up...........9-0 straight up, 7-2 ATS if they've also lost at least 3 in a row straight up, if favored.
I don’t know if you’re digging into NCAA ball yet but Baylor as a week 1 dog might not last long. I wrote up some initial thoughts on the week 1 game vs Auburn in the NCAA board.
I think Auburn had a good off-season but as it looks on paper Baylor improved as well. Baylor QB also protected the football really well with a 26-7 td to int ratio.
The Baylor Coach I think is very well respected and could/should be part of the reason they got some 2025 transfers in from some decent schools.
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I don’t know if you’re digging into NCAA ball yet but Baylor as a week 1 dog might not last long. I wrote up some initial thoughts on the week 1 game vs Auburn in the NCAA board.
I think Auburn had a good off-season but as it looks on paper Baylor improved as well. Baylor QB also protected the football really well with a 26-7 td to int ratio.
The Baylor Coach I think is very well respected and could/should be part of the reason they got some 2025 transfers in from some decent schools.
Alright, thanks for that.....Miami, FL, TCU and LSU are on my radar, opening week.....usually pass until September, so nothing set in stone.
Like the road teams week 1 in the CFL if they come as dogs, except for Ottawa. Ottawa looks better this season, but they have to show me they can go to a tough place on the road and win. Montreal has playoff revenge from last season, however they have a quarterback that exceeded everyone's expectations last season, and I'm not convinced he'll excel right away in the first half of the season.
Edmonton had the perfect offense last season for Tre Ford, but they got rid of the architect. Their defense should be much better.
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Alright, thanks for that.....Miami, FL, TCU and LSU are on my radar, opening week.....usually pass until September, so nothing set in stone.
Like the road teams week 1 in the CFL if they come as dogs, except for Ottawa. Ottawa looks better this season, but they have to show me they can go to a tough place on the road and win. Montreal has playoff revenge from last season, however they have a quarterback that exceeded everyone's expectations last season, and I'm not convinced he'll excel right away in the first half of the season.
Edmonton had the perfect offense last season for Tre Ford, but they got rid of the architect. Their defense should be much better.
You make some good points and looks to be more parody back in the CFL Ottawa under is on my radar too and a fade of Ottawa. Did you see who did what to close out last season? Take a look at the scoring and who did well, some early season regression from the last few weeks should occur.
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You make some good points and looks to be more parody back in the CFL Ottawa under is on my radar too and a fade of Ottawa. Did you see who did what to close out last season? Take a look at the scoring and who did well, some early season regression from the last few weeks should occur.
Miami I like too also something on my mind is how Michigan closed out last season 2-0 straight up as +27 against Alabama and +30 against Oh State.
consider this : Teams that finish the season strong 4-0 or 3-1 ats do not start strong in the early weeks.
Teams that combined for over 70 points in their bowl game or last playoff game and had at least 2 overs in a row to finish their season are under teams. Blindly all games before week 2 are strong under plays.
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Miami I like too also something on my mind is how Michigan closed out last season 2-0 straight up as +27 against Alabama and +30 against Oh State.
consider this : Teams that finish the season strong 4-0 or 3-1 ats do not start strong in the early weeks.
Teams that combined for over 70 points in their bowl game or last playoff game and had at least 2 overs in a row to finish their season are under teams. Blindly all games before week 2 are strong under plays.
CFL there are a few teams that excelled in the late weeks last season. Ottawa is one of. Argus fill out the top 2 and I look to under those games. In week 1 I have not looked but always take the dogs.
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CFL there are a few teams that excelled in the late weeks last season. Ottawa is one of. Argus fill out the top 2 and I look to under those games. In week 1 I have not looked but always take the dogs.
Ottawa qb was the best quarterback in the CFL last year.....I think they'll score points, but they had no rushing attack and couldn't defend the pass last season.....they're a fun team who played very well at home last season, often as dogs versus the heavyweights, and badly on the road.
According to their o/u season win odds, the bookmakers have them ranked as the second strongest team in the CFL this season.
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Ottawa qb was the best quarterback in the CFL last year.....I think they'll score points, but they had no rushing attack and couldn't defend the pass last season.....they're a fun team who played very well at home last season, often as dogs versus the heavyweights, and badly on the road.
According to their o/u season win odds, the bookmakers have them ranked as the second strongest team in the CFL this season.
Okay thanks and fair points. If they are rated this high and had defensive problems they could end up favored too many times and give the other team points. We will see. They could be another over monster but I have seen 60 point totals fail many times. This could be the case this season for them.
i am just on alert with Ottawa and the Argos. It’s a dog and under league just bouncing back for the abysmal scoring season a few years back.
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@Indigo999
Okay thanks and fair points. If they are rated this high and had defensive problems they could end up favored too many times and give the other team points. We will see. They could be another over monster but I have seen 60 point totals fail many times. This could be the case this season for them.
i am just on alert with Ottawa and the Argos. It’s a dog and under league just bouncing back for the abysmal scoring season a few years back.
Did a study many years ago in NCAA football, teams with new coaches as away favorites their first game covered about 15% of the time.....the ones I see for this year are going against Stanford, App State and UNLV.
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Did a study many years ago in NCAA football, teams with new coaches as away favorites their first game covered about 15% of the time.....the ones I see for this year are going against Stanford, App State and UNLV.
(I have only done this for one season but it worked and as far as regression it fits nicely)
previous season =2023 and finding the results for 2024
A team that after week 8 in 2023 that was ranked at least one time qualifies for 2024 ATS regression.
These teams will be faded in 2 categories:
1.)right out the get go fades all teams in the list. Any team that was ranked in 2023 after week 8 as I said. I found what happens is a lot of these teams go on an ats losing streak right off the start. What I searched was fade all of them in week 1 if they win and beat me that team is off the list the rest of the season. If I win stay against them until they do win. ATS season record 46-33 ATS.
2.) what I’m looking into deeper is an first 8 week fade of all these teams. If in the 8th week they beat me then I’m off them. If in week 8 they are in a losing streak continues the fade until they do beat me. The research I’m going is these teams favorites or dogs and the records against only when these teams are the favorites. So far fading all these team they week 8 in all games= 127-173 ats.
I have to go back and double check for any head to head game and also get a ration of when these fades were only favorites.
then I can do other eliminations like eliminate all these team top 10 historical teams like Ohio state and such. A lot of these big boys are difficult to fade and usually close to 50 50. Michigan and Georgia were the worst last year and notre dame was the best.
Heading into 2025 I would say NOTD was ripe for regression as well.
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Just did my own back NCAA study:
(I have only done this for one season but it worked and as far as regression it fits nicely)
previous season =2023 and finding the results for 2024
A team that after week 8 in 2023 that was ranked at least one time qualifies for 2024 ATS regression.
These teams will be faded in 2 categories:
1.)right out the get go fades all teams in the list. Any team that was ranked in 2023 after week 8 as I said. I found what happens is a lot of these teams go on an ats losing streak right off the start. What I searched was fade all of them in week 1 if they win and beat me that team is off the list the rest of the season. If I win stay against them until they do win. ATS season record 46-33 ATS.
2.) what I’m looking into deeper is an first 8 week fade of all these teams. If in the 8th week they beat me then I’m off them. If in week 8 they are in a losing streak continues the fade until they do beat me. The research I’m going is these teams favorites or dogs and the records against only when these teams are the favorites. So far fading all these team they week 8 in all games= 127-173 ats.
I have to go back and double check for any head to head game and also get a ration of when these fades were only favorites.
then I can do other eliminations like eliminate all these team top 10 historical teams like Ohio state and such. A lot of these big boys are difficult to fade and usually close to 50 50. Michigan and Georgia were the worst last year and notre dame was the best.
Heading into 2025 I would say NOTD was ripe for regression as well.
It takes a lot of time to go thru these but from looking at last year it makes sense to keep an eye on these.
also can do a search on these if they lost their bowl game . Were favorites in the bowl game. Blow out in their bowl game. Were in the bracket and lost first round.
query for this was
season=2023 and week>8 and rank<26 and t:team. Then do a 2024 season search of listed teams. If nothing else you have a list of eligible teams that if other queries pop up you can zone in on. So Some of these teams started 0-6 0-7 and it gets me away from some teams like army and Indiana that traditionally are not favorites that I don’t think that they can keep sustaining their excellence. That was my was my only downfall in a good 2024 ncaa season.
The good new is the excellent ats teams are few and far between so if I can recognize them I’ll be better.
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Favorites only from the above were 70-94 ats.
It takes a lot of time to go thru these but from looking at last year it makes sense to keep an eye on these.
also can do a search on these if they lost their bowl game . Were favorites in the bowl game. Blow out in their bowl game. Were in the bracket and lost first round.
query for this was
season=2023 and week>8 and rank<26 and t:team. Then do a 2024 season search of listed teams. If nothing else you have a list of eligible teams that if other queries pop up you can zone in on. So Some of these teams started 0-6 0-7 and it gets me away from some teams like army and Indiana that traditionally are not favorites that I don’t think that they can keep sustaining their excellence. That was my was my only downfall in a good 2024 ncaa season.
The good new is the excellent ats teams are few and far between so if I can recognize them I’ll be better.
my 2025 NCAAFB fde list from the above :call signs from the SDQL. there are more teams on the full list but for my reasons i listed these as the best regression candidates. fade only as favorites before week 9 or 10. Lastly if they start on a 6+ats losing streak and it loses or snaps eliminate that team. thats good enough. and if said team becomes a dog and is on a losing streak keep fading them until it breaks.
MIZ
AZST
OHST
ILL
NOTD
UNLV
MIS
COLO
ALA
PNST
ARMY
ORE
BOIS
MIAF
IND
BYU
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my 2025 NCAAFB fde list from the above :call signs from the SDQL. there are more teams on the full list but for my reasons i listed these as the best regression candidates. fade only as favorites before week 9 or 10. Lastly if they start on a 6+ats losing streak and it loses or snaps eliminate that team. thats good enough. and if said team becomes a dog and is on a losing streak keep fading them until it breaks.
Well I dont know the schedule but MICH is a big key for me as I mentioned about about the ir ;last 2 games last season. Well besides that in 2024 they were dogs 7 games. Doesnt sound like sustained excellence after moving beyond championship and Coach Harbaugh.
Michigan and Minnesota are my favorites but Michigan is my top favorite. Always on TV and in my youth always exciting with Bo. I suspect a very bumpy Michigan season
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you like rookie head coaches and AF
Well I dont know the schedule but MICH is a big key for me as I mentioned about about the ir ;last 2 games last season. Well besides that in 2024 they were dogs 7 games. Doesnt sound like sustained excellence after moving beyond championship and Coach Harbaugh.
Michigan and Minnesota are my favorites but Michigan is my top favorite. Always on TV and in my youth always exciting with Bo. I suspect a very bumpy Michigan season
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