Idigo III

0-3 past week, -4.66 units,.................5-7, -1.36 unit season-to-date

Terrible week, we'll try one more week.

Plays:

1)  Elks +9', -105, 2 units......CFL teams historically haven't played well in the situation that the Bombers are in...we'll see.

2)  Alouettes -3, -105, 2 units.....I don't expect Alexander to play.

3)  Lions +5', 2 units,,,,,obviously would like Rourke to play, but like it even if he doesn't.

Scoring is up and the Elks have to score to keep pace.  I have my doubts.  For me I watched all the lines in game so far this season.  Still don’t have it figured out, of course it difficult.  Anyways these dogs have to score and I can’t argue that Elks can.  

In game if they can score 25 points or more than it’s a better win%.  Now that only happens in rare late 4th quarter games.  Could be a waste of time waiting for it. The other thing is I can see myself getting better than +9.5 in game if I want to bet the Elks.  

im profitable this season but CFL as a whole has changed significantly.  I can barely watch.  Switch to favorites and good teams?  I dare to lose. 

overs are best but the Elks game isn’t interesting for that.  

For me?  wait a game see. 

Running quarterbacks lead to their team having more running game yardage than their opponent....

14>week>2 and pp:HDW and HF and line<-3

RY>o:RY and AD and DIV and week<10

I want to take EDM in this game.  Tre-Ford threw some good balls last week.

That man can throw & run.  Accurate.  He just has not played enough.

This guy can be a leader, if luck falls his way this season.

I agree.  Wait for in game possibilities.  14 or more would be nice.

WPG gets out fast in the 1st QTR then back EDM!

Interesting game for sure.

Sounds good CC....

Some angles.......

1)  Home divisional favorites before week 8 on Thursday......9-23 ATS (-6.09), 17-14 straight up (+0.06)......VERSUS Bombers

2)  Home divisional favorites before week 8 on Saturday.....21-31 ATS (-0.91), 31-21 SU (+4.33)......................VERSUS Roughriders

3)  Home divisional dogs before week 8 on Friday...............6-15 ATS (-4.74), 6-15 SU (-9.43).........................VERSUS Tiger Cats

4)  Home divisional favorites before week 8 on Sunday........3-6 ATS (-0.11), 4-5 SU (+5.11)...........................VERSUS Redblacks

5)  An away dog before week 8 who will be a favorite their next game.....49-23-2 ATS (+4.8), 34-39 SU (+0.3).....this moves to 17-4-1 ATS (+8.8) if the away dog is winless on the season.......ON Argonauts (who play at home to Hamilton their next game).

Adding:

4)  Bombers/Elks UNDER 51', 1 unit

Home favorites of more than 2 points, on 4 days rest before week 12 have gone:

  a)  2-11-1 ATS (-12.7)

  b)  6-8 straight up (-4.9)

  c)  2-12 o/u (-9.2) 

VERSUS Bombers, ON UNDER

Demski is questionable, Oliveira is out.....we'll see if this turns into a defensive slugfest.  Only 29% of the bets are on the Elks, which is good.

There is some question whether Nathan Rourke or Trevor Harris will play....obviously their status will affect the lines.

Here what I have.....

  a)  Saskatchewan (with Harris) -3  BC (with Rourke)

  b)  Saskatchewan (without Harris) pik BC (with Rourke)

  c)  Saskatchewan (with Harris)  -4' BC (with Masoli)

  d)  Saskatchewan (without Harris) -3 (with Masoli) 

I am not a Jake Maier fan....he and Arbuckle are similar in that find ways to lose games for their team.....if Harris is out I may double my Lions bet.

H and F and line<-8 and t:team=Blue Bombers and season>2017

looking over the data for the first qtr scores in the above query.  I find that when taking the dog in this situation it’s best to wait for a better line.  If the line dips because Edmonton does jump out early then continue to wait for a better opportunity or just pass.  

I am just being transparent nothing against you it’s just business. 

With big lines one can be patient because usually the early line isn’t as meaningful early in these games.  Now I’ll go look at all teams. 

 These high favorites usually have the lead at some point.  

H and F and line<-8 and season>2017

58-13 straight up 

7 times the game has been tied after the first. 

13 times the dog has held a lead after 1st Q. 

20 times out of 71 games has it been tied are a dog lead

30 times has the favorite had a 1st half lead  of >=+7

In my opinion the pre-game cover most often is decided in the first half.  And a decent lean is to the chalk.  

most important for me is patience on the game.  

your current location and time zone could be an issue here.  Yet to be determined. 

I've said many times I welcome disagreement.  

VSIN has 38% of the bettors  on the Elks, where typically I've had my greatest success when I have been in the minority,.....and when someone has a counter-argument, it's very rare I would change my mind on a play, if that is your intent.

In the case of this.......pp:HDW and line<-7 and HF and playoffs=0.....................which is 1-13 ATS, three of those home teams out of 14  were up at halftime by over 7 points....and none of them covered.

Perhaps Winnipeg wins 40-7,  having gone up 21-0 after the first quarter....wouldn't be the first time, or the last that I've been wrong.  

I watch all the games, live.

I’m not disagreeing I’m just have zero confidence in +10 dogs until I see consistency 

so I can’t bet favorites do the best thing for me to do is be patient and see what transpires.  

im not making anykind of pregame prediction at all 

I hope you get wins 

Best  wishes.  

Not a lot of Wpg rushing so far

I’ll stay in my own thread I don’t want to be bad vibes. I’m feeling for you.