C week 6

19-9 on the season.

Three of four games are turnaround games, which until the covid thingy was unique to Canadian Football in professional sports.

Indigo lines are not what I expect the linemaker to have them at, but what my true relative lines are.  As I've mentioned bookmakers sometimes try to entice action with a line, or alternatively, they know what teams will be heavily bet and they will shade a line because of that.  An example in the NFL is the Cowboys, who are always heavily backed.  I like them this year, but I'm cautious about taking them, as they constantly disappoint.

And, sometimes, especially this year, bookmakers  are just plain wrong with the lines they're putting out.  This will tighten up as more games are being played and they should get better at having lines that actually reflect the teams' performance on the field.

If I can impress upon you one point...it is that one should fade the results of a team's previous season's results result in early season action in the CFL.  In other words you look to back teams that were terrible their last season, and look to fade teams that were upper echelon from the prior season.  Calgary and Hamilton are both having their issues this season after both of them were top four in the league in 2019.

Indigo lines

Toronto     -3  Hamilton        48

Winnipeg   -3  Saskatchewan 46

Edmonton -4  Calgary           50

BC          -13  Ottawa           45

Some comments about the past weekend.  Arbuckle evidently did not have a good game (it wasn't televised at the sportsbook I was at), which can be expected with a qb in his first season, playing on the road.  Interesting to see if he will start next week at home, where it  is a much easier proposition for a brand new starter.

Winnipeg thoroughly gauged Fajardo, and they played to his predisposition to run in key moments.  This weeks' Bombers/Sasquatch next game I expect to be the dirtiest, nastiest game of the season in the CFL.  If Fajardo runs too much against the Bombers he won't last the game and his head might get knocked off.  Is there a prop where you can bet a quarterback doesn't last the game?

The CFL website has the Redblacks listed as 6.5 dogs on the road versus the Lions.....that line is a joke, it should be at least north of 10 points and I would need 14 points to think about backing the Ottawa Redblacks.  Really terrible teams like the Redblacks if they get out of a funk, often will do so on the road, rather than at home.  And, this is the CFL where away dogs rule supreme.  I expect that the Redblacks, even though LaPolice had Nichols as his qb in Winnipeg, will start Davis at quarterback as the RBs' offensive line woes are so bad that a mobile quarterback is a requirement with this team.  Davis is the opposite of Nichols in a lot of ways,...he is a boom or bust quarterback who can make amazing plays, but he also is a turnover machine, so there will be a lot of variance in the Redblacks' results going forward if Davis is named starter, which means they could produce some HUGE upsets, but they also could get beat by 40 points.

Calgary has a first-year starter playing quarterback on the road....he did excellent in that regard versus the Bombers, but I will find it hard to back him on the road, especially so because Calgary is a very young team that is still finding its footing.

Since our database with all of its content has been taken off of the internet, both Spottie and I are no longer able to look up past history, so at least my thread will be much shorter.  Spottie is an excellent handicapper and a helluva guy,....if you haven't been checking out his threads in this forum, you should consider it.  He has started out like a house-a-fire in college football also.

College football plays:

1)  Buffalo +13'

2)  Rutgers -2

I more than likely will be on Rutgers every game this season, unless I see something that changes my mind about them.  Nebraska I will look to fade, especially as a favorite, and especially off a win.

Another team I will look to fade will be Mississippi State off a win and as a favorite.....I don't think passing 50 times a game with no running attack in the SEC will work although it could in the Big 12 and the Pac 12..  Remember that teams that get outrushed lose against the pointspread over 70% of the time.

Purdue, though they got the cover against Oregon State (who can't rush either)  can't run the ball ....I will look for good running teams to get the money against the Boilermakers, like Iowa, Minnesota, and perhaps Wisconsin.

Wisconsin has an excellent defense and defensive coordinator,, however without a stud running back like Melvin Gordon or Taylor that they've had, perhaps their time as the dominant player in the Big Ten West might be coming to a close.  They can't pass the ball despite having 5 star recruits at the quarterback.  I think Paul Chryst is a mediocre coach.

Got a feeling Tor/Ham rematch could get ugly as well. Might need to call in the Mounties for this weeks slate.

Thanks for the kind words and best wishes to you this week 

I like Buffalo too I might add that to my growing list.  

Sports Interaction has their lines out,....perhaps the linemaker there is Canadian....LOL.

SI lines to the left, my lines to the right.

Sports Int                     Indigo lines

Argos      +4   45'           -3  48

Bombers  -3'  41'            -3  48

Elks         -0   42'           -4   50

Lions       -7   43'           -13  45

Lions/Redblack line I can't touch and with the Redblacks I want to see if they have actually made adjustments, like having D Davis quarterbacking....like I said, they have to have a mobile quarterback with that offensive line.  But, will they make the change or will they insist on LaPolice using "his guy"?

Revenge turnaround games are tricky, because  probably the biggest motivator in sports (and maybe in life) is revenge.  The bookies this week are obviously pricing in the revenge factor into the line, because the lines are not anywhere close to what the season-t0-date performance of the teams have been.  Only exception to the revenge factor being priced in is the Argos game....bookmaker obvously thinks the Tiger Cats are back.  One game a season does not make.....as a championship runner up, I think they keep having trouble for the whole season.

In an earlier week, (have to go back and check) there is a very good angle that says to take away  favorites that are a losing team.  That worked in the case of Montreal last week.  I am leaning Stamps, Argos and UNDER Riders/Bombers.

Historically home divisional dogs perform nowhere near as well as what non-divisional dogs perform.

I am in Vegas still....things are going well for which I am very grateful. 

I am hanging out in sportsbooks in shorts and a Hawaiian shirt watching numerous games at the same time on big screens while scantily clad, very nice looking cocktail  waitresses that call me "Hun" bring me Virgin Marys while I  wait for my plays to come in. 

And yeah, being  called "Hun" is nice......even if it costs me a couple of bucks per mocktail for them to say it.

You:  "Yeah Indigo, that is all well and good, but what about the plays?"

Me:  "Roit mate" (as they say in Australia) "here ya go, here are yur fair dinkum plays."

Plays:

1) Argos +4.....still think Argos win the division.

2)  Sasquatches +3'....defending champs tend to perform very well on the road, and not nearly as well at home.  Well, we'll see if Indigo is full of it this week now won't we?

3)  Sasquatch/Bombers UNDER 41'....this game has 14-13 written all over it.

4)  Stampeders pik....think Stamps stomp 'em.

5)  Lions/Redblacks OVER 43'....at some point Dominic Davis is gonna be in this game (he "should" start shouldn't he?) and then all hell will break loose.  The days of the Redblacks thinking they can win games by a score of 7-6 should be over.....anyway let's hope so.

Adding three college football plays:

3)  Texas State +1

4)  Toledo +17

5)  Georgia Southern +7

________________________________

1)  Rutgers -2'

2)  Buffalo +13'

If the Redskins become favorites on Sunday versus the Chargers I will be on the  Chargers +.

The line is moving towards WFT with some books having them at pik 'em........ 57% of the King of Covers contest plays are on Washington.

@Indigo999

 Think cowboys easily win NFC east if  Dak stays healthy of course. 

I think you been drinking to much. Elks eliminate Calgary from playoffs. 

It is those olives in the Virgin Marys that get you.

Adding:

6)  Rice +8, teams off a game 1 loss that are game two away favorites are fades....VERSUS Houston, Temple

_______________________________________

3)  Texas State +1......Texas State, Toledo and Buffalo qualify under a 62% angle

4)  Toledo +17......Notre Dame played in an overtime game last week and those teams often perform badly the next week.

5)  Georgia Southern +7.......Georgia Southern is a triple option team....teams that outrush their opponents as away dogs cover more than 70% of the time.  Interestingly, triple option teams tend to perform poorly at home.  Triple option teams include Army, Navy, Air Force and Georgia Southern.

1)  Rutgers -2'.......Syracuse covered last week in a situation where they should have lost....I like to fade those teams the next game.

2)  Buffalo +13'

Leans:

UAB.....teams off a non-home shutout win do very well as away dogs their next game.  I am not playing them because UAB has performed poorly against Power 5 schools.

NFL Superbook contest picks:

1)  Cardinals +3.....Arizona falls into a qualifier that has produced   over a  70% win rate in past years.

2)  Eagles +3 (got them at +3')....Eagles' opponent the Atlanta Falcons fall into a 12-49 ATS angle.

3)  Patriots -3 (got them at -1').....I like New England to do well against the spread this year, now that they have a quarterback that can throw the ball.

4)  Chargers +1.....Chargers' oppponent Washington has a Thursday night game next and teams in that situation before the Thanksgiving games do poorly as home favorites.

5)  Browns +6.....Superbowl runners-up do poorly week 1 and in their next season in general.  Browns should outrush the Chiefs.  Teams as favorites in September that won 13 or greater games when playing an opponent that  was in the playoffs the prior season have done poorly....those teams this season are the Bills, Chiefs and Packers. 

Alright, lines are out, and whoever is making sportsinteraction lines is not thinking along the lines of whoever is making the real lines.  With the idea that I'd be taking over a field goal with Toronto and getting over a field goal with Saskatchewan I put out picks without actually betting them, because I don't have a sportsinteraction account.  Maybe I should figure out a way to get one, eh?

So, I am amending my plays....I apologize for the inconvenience,....and from now on I will not be providing plays based on SI lines.  And to be more than a little paranoid I don't want someone who is making  lines for the CFL to come onto my thread and look at who I like ahead of time before I've actually bet the games.

Plays:

1) Calgary moneyline +105

Guess we'll see who's right ahd who's wrong eh Boldy?

The Stampeders fall into the same now 22-3 ATS angle as the Alouettes last week when they crushed Ottawa. 

What is the angle?....go back into last week's thread if you want to know.

Calgary 31 Edmonton 20.

2)  Ottawa/BC OVER 46

Dominic Davis to the rescue!....if he can throw for 291 and rush for 40 in about 2/3 of a game, we're talking 400+ in a full game.  The air will be filled with footballs, hopefully with players catching them and running into end zones.  BC 35 Ottawa 28.

And to make commentary on the Bucs/Cowboys game....wow! what a game.

Dak looking like he has the "it" factor this year....points a'plenty in Cowboys games this season......think they'll win the division and if Washington wins on Sunday, I will be betting Dallas at much better odds to win the division, the Monday after.

Tampa Bay has got no secondary this season and they will be like the Chiefs last season off their Super Bowl win.....a lot of big spreads and not a lot of covers.

And Dallas played it perfectly....you can't run on the Bucs so waste plays trying to do it? (do you hear me Paul LaPolice?).....play the game like a two minute drill and wear out the back 7 of the Bucs running around trying to chase skill position players around for 60 minutes.

And so on to Friday, where it is the fast becomeing unbiquitous CFLca staffwriter's picks day!!!

A way, a very good way to make money in the stockmarket or in sports betting is to find a "mush", or someone who can't handicap and play opposite of their plays.  On covers there have been posters that have a complete thread on their mush's plays every week.....in the past some of them have gotten HUGE followings.  I haven't seen any for a couple of years. 

If someone had followed my posted WNBA plays, you would have made plenty.

We have 6 writers picking games straight up whose combined record is 48-67, or 41.7%.......obviously if we reverse that, the pick percentage is 58.3.

Now they would be picking favorites almost always, and approximately 16% of games are determined by the pointspread, so that percentage  against the spread would  worse for the writers, and for our purposes the percentages of fading them would be higher, HIGHER THAN 58%!

Is that awesome, or what??!!

For the rest of the season, I will wait to make plays until the CFL linemaker (who isn't sportsinteraction) puts them out  and until I also  see the CFL staff's picks.....I won't be playing a side that the staff likes, so it is a kind of a filter, alright?

Staff picks and the percentage of those taking them (out of 6 writers).

1)  83% on Hamilton

2)  67% on Bombers

3)  67% on Edmonton

4)  100% on British Columbia

So, if you are having a bad season, hate Spottie's or my plays, or don't have the time or the inclination to handicap yourself, it is a two minute exercise to tune into this thread on Friday or alternatively, go onto the CFL.ca website to find out how the staffwriters are picking and FADE, FADE, FADE!!

Good fortune this week.

My NFL plays with KOC betting contests' betting percentages for each.

1)  Eagles +3'.........41%

2)  Cardinals +3.....30%

3)  Chargers +1......43%

4)  Browns+6.........43%

5)  Patriots -1'........58%

6)  Steelers +6'......43% 

I don't follow or read covers writers , when it comes to contest's there are many many times I just pick anything. 

The only reason I don't take Calgary I think Bo is playing tonight, think hes worried of losing his job, anyways I think its time he retired

Here are some angles taken from last week's thread that are relevant this week in the CFL....

A)  Week 5, 6 away divisional dogs that have already played three home games...10-6 ATS, 4-12 UNDER.....Stamps

Game number<8 away dogs with the greater number of losses compared to  their present opponent........................ 50-34 ATS....Stamps

B)  A week <7 home divisional team that won two games ago and lost their last game...9-17 ATS.....VERSUS Argos

C)  An away divisional team with the better average scoring margin before week 7 with a total under 50, 15-2 ATS.....Tiger Cats

D)  Teams that missed the playoffs last season (Redblacks, Argos, Lions) as away divisional dogs have been 15-5 ATS in weeks 1-4...after that in weeks 5-8, they have been 5-11 ATS, so there is some reversion to the mean.....versus Redblacks

E)  Teams averaging less than 17 points/game in weeks 2-8 in divisional games have been 12-11 ATS, 19-5 OVER.......12-2 OVER if the total is less than 50......OVER Redblacks

F)  Our Stampeders' play is based on a angle I alluded to earlier.....

   a)  We take a team off of two losses in a row and put them on the road 111-100 ATS.

   b)  We make it a divisional game which brings this to 64-48 ATS.

   c)  We make it before week 10....28-11 ATS.

   d)  We make it that our team has underperformed offensively, scoring at least 7 points less  than expected their past two games combined......22-3 ATS

This angle was a winner last week, and is still relevant this week.

The parameters are this:

1)  The home favorite has more wins than their opponent

2)  Both teams are above 500

3)  Both teams made the playoffs last season

4)  It is a divisional game

7-23 O/U, 2-8 UNDER if  the total is less than 50.....Bombers/Sasquatches UNDER

College football away dogs of less than 10 points that outrush attempt their opponent have been 33-10 ATS.....Georgia southern should outrush attempt FAU tomorrow.

When the service academies play each other, the UNDER has been 38-9.