Well Mack you know my Pick is Floyd, but the Chalk is high.
I know what Vegas tries to do, lure in Mosley bettors until the heavy bettors bring down the line.
Oddly Danno said Floyd is only -275 not sure what it's at that paddy place you wage at .. but if someone is laying down the chalk why not get it at -275.
I probably will go with Floyd by Dec.
Cannot wait to see the props on the fight at 5dimes.
Cheers :)
Well Mack you know my Pick is Floyd, but the Chalk is high.
I know what Vegas tries to do, lure in Mosley bettors until the heavy bettors bring down the line.
Oddly Danno said Floyd is only -275 not sure what it's at that paddy place you wage at .. but if someone is laying down the chalk why not get it at -275.
I probably will go with Floyd by Dec.
Cannot wait to see the props on the fight at 5dimes.
I cannot see Floyd Knocking out Shane Mosley. So that prop I wouldn't even touch.
Shane seems like a Roy Jones type where he will get old and slow overnight. . . he didn't look good against Mayorga, and I know hindsight is 20/20 but Margarito was tailor made for him to look good against - not to mention Margarito knew he was in for it after the fight with the wrap controversy so his mind couldn't have been 100% in the ring. It's been basically since Nov 2007 since Shane was even in with an elite level fighter (Cotto, who we probably think a lot less of now than we did in 2007).
I think it's quite possible Shane could look BAD at any moment just due to age and not being tested for all this time, and Floyd is one of the only fighters that he's not going to outbox or outspeed. His chance to win has to be utilizing his strength - arguably his ONLY advantage over Floyd - so I could see him attempting to get inside the pocket often, probably leading to a ton of clean Floyd counters. If his chin (which to this point has been solid) hasn't kept up with the rest of his physique, he could be in for an embarrassment
Regardless, I think the line -350 or so is fair, though I do agree with you that I thought it would open a little lower, but I was thinking like -280 or so. I just think there's proably some value fading Shane by KO from here on out, and I'm pretty sure Floyd is beating him, so I think it's worth a shot at what will probably be a highly inflated prop line.
Regardless, this should be the best 24/7 yet
Bagel Sandwiches Suck
Quote Originally Posted by nuttyrich:
I cannot see Floyd Knocking out Shane Mosley. So that prop I wouldn't even touch.
Shane seems like a Roy Jones type where he will get old and slow overnight. . . he didn't look good against Mayorga, and I know hindsight is 20/20 but Margarito was tailor made for him to look good against - not to mention Margarito knew he was in for it after the fight with the wrap controversy so his mind couldn't have been 100% in the ring. It's been basically since Nov 2007 since Shane was even in with an elite level fighter (Cotto, who we probably think a lot less of now than we did in 2007).
I think it's quite possible Shane could look BAD at any moment just due to age and not being tested for all this time, and Floyd is one of the only fighters that he's not going to outbox or outspeed. His chance to win has to be utilizing his strength - arguably his ONLY advantage over Floyd - so I could see him attempting to get inside the pocket often, probably leading to a ton of clean Floyd counters. If his chin (which to this point has been solid) hasn't kept up with the rest of his physique, he could be in for an embarrassment
Regardless, I think the line -350 or so is fair, though I do agree with you that I thought it would open a little lower, but I was thinking like -280 or so. I just think there's proably some value fading Shane by KO from here on out, and I'm pretty sure Floyd is beating him, so I think it's worth a shot at what will probably be a highly inflated prop line.
Mosley backers don't need any extra encouragement at this early juncture. Even if +260 is fatter than it will be on fight night, it is not in fact a great bargain, and I don't think any of us see Floyd's number creeping down to -200. Do you? The only reason I can see for betting on the wrong side 3 months in advance would be to sell the position later. I just can't see a dramatic shift in Shane's direction making that profitable.
As for the Floyd KO, I can't really see that coming. He was able to carry Marquez through 12 rounds (and Hatton through 10) and Shane's chin is legendary. He's not made of glass like Roy always has been even if he's slowed down in much the same way.
Mosley backers don't need any extra encouragement at this early juncture. Even if +260 is fatter than it will be on fight night, it is not in fact a great bargain, and I don't think any of us see Floyd's number creeping down to -200. Do you? The only reason I can see for betting on the wrong side 3 months in advance would be to sell the position later. I just can't see a dramatic shift in Shane's direction making that profitable.
As for the Floyd KO, I can't really see that coming. He was able to carry Marquez through 12 rounds (and Hatton through 10) and Shane's chin is legendary. He's not made of glass like Roy always has been even if he's slowed down in much the same way.
Shane seems like a Roy Jones type where he will get old and slow overnight. . . he didn't look good against Mayorga, and I know hindsight is 20/20 but Margarito was tailor made for him to look good against - not to mention Margarito knew he was in for it after the fight with the wrap controversy so his mind couldn't have been 100% in the ring. It's been basically since Nov 2007 since Shane was even in with an elite level fighter (Cotto, who we probably think a lot less of now than we did in 2007).
I think it's quite possible Shane could look BAD at any moment just due to age and not being tested for all this time, and Floyd is one of the only fighters that he's not going to outbox or outspeed. His chance to win has to be utilizing his strength - arguably his ONLY advantage over Floyd - so I could see him attempting to get inside the pocket often, probably leading to a ton of clean Floyd counters. If his chin (which to this point has been solid) hasn't kept up with the rest of his physique, he could be in for an embarrassment
Regardless, I think the line -350 or so is fair, though I do agree with you that I thought it would open a little lower, but I was thinking like -280 or so. I just think there's proably some value fading Shane by KO from here on out, and I'm pretty sure Floyd is beating him, so I think it's worth a shot at what will probably be a highly inflated prop line.
Regardless, this should be the best 24/7 yet
Sup Bro
Completely agree here Gator (great post). In handicapping anything (particularly boxing), I'm always looking for an angle if large PLUS money presents itself. And while the masses may see a potentially competitive fight where + 250ish looms as a real opportunity, I don't see that at all. I've stated my take on the fight in a couple of the threads floating around in here but bottomline, the only advantage I see SSM having in this fight is raw strength and it will take more than that to beat a guy as crafty, speedy, and defensive minded as Floyd, not to mention SMART. Unfortunately, he will always be overlooked for his ring generalship just because people looking at uncle Roger and his dad can't help but think the guys' gene pool carries some retard in it. But Floyd (inside the ring) is one of the smartest fighters I've seen.
You know, another thing: Floyd (with the constant training and weight lifting) has really grown into a welterweights body. That little stunt he pulled with JMM at the weigh-in tells me that he's very comfortable at 147 and not less. The anticipated size and strength advantage for Mosley in this fight may not be as big of factor as many believe. I remember what Shane looked like at 154 lbs versus Winky......he looked like he didn't belong there. Shane's a true welterweight and I believe Floyd now is too.
Quote Originally Posted by G8RB8:
Shane seems like a Roy Jones type where he will get old and slow overnight. . . he didn't look good against Mayorga, and I know hindsight is 20/20 but Margarito was tailor made for him to look good against - not to mention Margarito knew he was in for it after the fight with the wrap controversy so his mind couldn't have been 100% in the ring. It's been basically since Nov 2007 since Shane was even in with an elite level fighter (Cotto, who we probably think a lot less of now than we did in 2007).
I think it's quite possible Shane could look BAD at any moment just due to age and not being tested for all this time, and Floyd is one of the only fighters that he's not going to outbox or outspeed. His chance to win has to be utilizing his strength - arguably his ONLY advantage over Floyd - so I could see him attempting to get inside the pocket often, probably leading to a ton of clean Floyd counters. If his chin (which to this point has been solid) hasn't kept up with the rest of his physique, he could be in for an embarrassment
Regardless, I think the line -350 or so is fair, though I do agree with you that I thought it would open a little lower, but I was thinking like -280 or so. I just think there's proably some value fading Shane by KO from here on out, and I'm pretty sure Floyd is beating him, so I think it's worth a shot at what will probably be a highly inflated prop line.
Regardless, this should be the best 24/7 yet
Sup Bro
Completely agree here Gator (great post). In handicapping anything (particularly boxing), I'm always looking for an angle if large PLUS money presents itself. And while the masses may see a potentially competitive fight where + 250ish looms as a real opportunity, I don't see that at all. I've stated my take on the fight in a couple of the threads floating around in here but bottomline, the only advantage I see SSM having in this fight is raw strength and it will take more than that to beat a guy as crafty, speedy, and defensive minded as Floyd, not to mention SMART. Unfortunately, he will always be overlooked for his ring generalship just because people looking at uncle Roger and his dad can't help but think the guys' gene pool carries some retard in it. But Floyd (inside the ring) is one of the smartest fighters I've seen.
You know, another thing: Floyd (with the constant training and weight lifting) has really grown into a welterweights body. That little stunt he pulled with JMM at the weigh-in tells me that he's very comfortable at 147 and not less. The anticipated size and strength advantage for Mosley in this fight may not be as big of factor as many believe. I remember what Shane looked like at 154 lbs versus Winky......he looked like he didn't belong there. Shane's a true welterweight and I believe Floyd now is too.
He was able to carry Marquez through 12 rounds (and Hatton through 10) and Shane's chin is legendary. He's not made of glass like Roy always has been even if he's slowed down in much the same way.
After about rd 4 with Marquez I thought Floyd could end that fight at any time, and just chose not to.
Make no mistake - I agree with you completely on his chin being historically sound at this point, but with almost every fighter Shane has had a speed and footwork advantage - which he will not have here. Once these speed guys lose a step, they get hit with a lot of shit they didn't used to since it's what they relied on, so that's why I'm thinking that it could happen here since Floyd already has the speed advantage going in.
Hate to make it sound like I'm bad mouthing Moseley, because I love the guy and his attitude, but he's definitely closer to being shot than peaking, so he's on high fade alert with me.
Bagel Sandwiches Suck
Quote Originally Posted by LetMeSpin:
He was able to carry Marquez through 12 rounds (and Hatton through 10) and Shane's chin is legendary. He's not made of glass like Roy always has been even if he's slowed down in much the same way.
After about rd 4 with Marquez I thought Floyd could end that fight at any time, and just chose not to.
Make no mistake - I agree with you completely on his chin being historically sound at this point, but with almost every fighter Shane has had a speed and footwork advantage - which he will not have here. Once these speed guys lose a step, they get hit with a lot of shit they didn't used to since it's what they relied on, so that's why I'm thinking that it could happen here since Floyd already has the speed advantage going in.
Hate to make it sound like I'm bad mouthing Moseley, because I love the guy and his attitude, but he's definitely closer to being shot than peaking, so he's on high fade alert with me.
Agree with you Pinny - I think Floyd's most underrated attribute is his boxing brain. One of the best adjustment fighters I've ever watched. Also think they are about even size-wise, though I think Shane is a tad stronger if they were on a bench press - though you and I both know that doesn't win fights
What's your guess on this prop, +400? Really is a tough call to predict this line. . .
Bagel Sandwiches Suck
Agree with you Pinny - I think Floyd's most underrated attribute is his boxing brain. One of the best adjustment fighters I've ever watched. Also think they are about even size-wise, though I think Shane is a tad stronger if they were on a bench press - though you and I both know that doesn't win fights
What's your guess on this prop, +400? Really is a tough call to predict this line. . .
Floyd doesn't take enough risk, it's been his down fall his whole life, he's had many hurt or "ready to be finished" but won't go that extra bit and get that KO that many want to see.
I believe he will be even MORE cautious against Mosley, not saying it won't be a good fight, just saying even at the age of 38/39 CHIN is the last to go.
Floyd didn't risk knocking out Marquez who is really at most a 130/135 fighter.. and who was insanely slow due to the weight.
You truly think Floyd is going to "go out on a limb" and go for the KO? Floyd has zero losses because he plays it safe. I expect this to go the distance :)
Floyd doesn't take enough risk, it's been his down fall his whole life, he's had many hurt or "ready to be finished" but won't go that extra bit and get that KO that many want to see.
I believe he will be even MORE cautious against Mosley, not saying it won't be a good fight, just saying even at the age of 38/39 CHIN is the last to go.
Floyd didn't risk knocking out Marquez who is really at most a 130/135 fighter.. and who was insanely slow due to the weight.
You truly think Floyd is going to "go out on a limb" and go for the KO? Floyd has zero losses because he plays it safe. I expect this to go the distance :)
After about rd 4 with Marquez I thought Floyd could end that fight at any time, and just chose not to.
Make no mistake - I agree with you completely on his chin being historically sound at this point, but with almost every fighter Shane has had a speed and footwork advantage - which he will not have here. Once these speed guys lose a step, they get hit with a lot of shit they didn't used to since it's what they relied on, so that's why I'm thinking that it could happen here since Floyd already has the speed advantage going in.
Hate to make it sound like I'm bad mouthing Moseley, because I love the guy and his attitude, but he's definitely closer to being shot than peaking, so he's on high fade alert with me.
You may be right, but I just don't see it. Shane has already slowed down considerably and he does get hit a lot. He was never a defensive wizard in my mind anyway, but Cotto was able to land clean blows without ever having him in trouble. I've got to expect Floyd by wide decision, but you never know when the ref may decide to step in if Floyd does actually turn on the gas. It's completely against his nature though at the higher weight classes (even carrying the smaller Marquez for 12 rounds). He used to just destroy guys when he had them outclassed (see Corrales and Gatti).
Quote Originally Posted by G8RB8:
After about rd 4 with Marquez I thought Floyd could end that fight at any time, and just chose not to.
Make no mistake - I agree with you completely on his chin being historically sound at this point, but with almost every fighter Shane has had a speed and footwork advantage - which he will not have here. Once these speed guys lose a step, they get hit with a lot of shit they didn't used to since it's what they relied on, so that's why I'm thinking that it could happen here since Floyd already has the speed advantage going in.
Hate to make it sound like I'm bad mouthing Moseley, because I love the guy and his attitude, but he's definitely closer to being shot than peaking, so he's on high fade alert with me.
You may be right, but I just don't see it. Shane has already slowed down considerably and he does get hit a lot. He was never a defensive wizard in my mind anyway, but Cotto was able to land clean blows without ever having him in trouble. I've got to expect Floyd by wide decision, but you never know when the ref may decide to step in if Floyd does actually turn on the gas. It's completely against his nature though at the higher weight classes (even carrying the smaller Marquez for 12 rounds). He used to just destroy guys when he had them outclassed (see Corrales and Gatti).
Floyd doesn't take enough risk, it's been his down fall his whole life, he's had many hurt or "ready to be finished" but won't go that extra bit and get that KO that many want to see.
I believe he will be even MORE cautious against Mosley, not saying it won't be a good fight, just saying even at the age of 38/39 CHIN is the last to go.
Floyd didn't risk knocking out Marquez who is really at most a 130/135 fighter.. and who was insanely slow due to the weight.
You truly think Floyd is going to "go out on a limb" and go for the KO? Floyd has zero losses because he plays it safe. I expect this to go the distance :)
I know Floyd typically does, but I always got the feeling he was toying and didn't really respect much about Marquez or Hatton and was coasting. Hatton being KO'ed was probably his fault more than Floyd's, he just never stopped being bullheaded and as funny as it sounds, Floyd almost didn't have a choice. I will say I was surprised Floyd didn't go for it more against Oscar, but he won the fight all the same, so tough to criticsize that performance.
I think with Shane the intent will be there. These two have talked shit about dodging each other for years, and as much as they respect the other, I think they both want a piece of each other too much to play patty cake for 10 of the 12 rounds. If the opportunity presents itself, I think Floyd is going to take it. Just my hunch - or at least I think it is worth what the odds will be.
I'm in no way saying that's the bottom line, and I certainly wouldn't choose KO over a dec in a pk'em line, but I think there will be tons of value, worth looking out for and taking a stab.
Bagel Sandwiches Suck
Quote Originally Posted by nuttyrich:
Floyd doesn't take enough risk, it's been his down fall his whole life, he's had many hurt or "ready to be finished" but won't go that extra bit and get that KO that many want to see.
I believe he will be even MORE cautious against Mosley, not saying it won't be a good fight, just saying even at the age of 38/39 CHIN is the last to go.
Floyd didn't risk knocking out Marquez who is really at most a 130/135 fighter.. and who was insanely slow due to the weight.
You truly think Floyd is going to "go out on a limb" and go for the KO? Floyd has zero losses because he plays it safe. I expect this to go the distance :)
I know Floyd typically does, but I always got the feeling he was toying and didn't really respect much about Marquez or Hatton and was coasting. Hatton being KO'ed was probably his fault more than Floyd's, he just never stopped being bullheaded and as funny as it sounds, Floyd almost didn't have a choice. I will say I was surprised Floyd didn't go for it more against Oscar, but he won the fight all the same, so tough to criticsize that performance.
I think with Shane the intent will be there. These two have talked shit about dodging each other for years, and as much as they respect the other, I think they both want a piece of each other too much to play patty cake for 10 of the 12 rounds. If the opportunity presents itself, I think Floyd is going to take it. Just my hunch - or at least I think it is worth what the odds will be.
I'm in no way saying that's the bottom line, and I certainly wouldn't choose KO over a dec in a pk'em line, but I think there will be tons of value, worth looking out for and taking a stab.
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