Weekend Picks (7/16/08-7/19/08)

2007: +12.45 units
2008: +10.01 units

Oscar Diaz vs. Delvin Rodriguez
Diaz (+130)
0.75 unit
Under 9.5 (+280)
0.25 unit

While most people on this forum appear to be anticipating that trash heavyweight matchup tonight on Fox Sports Net, the better fight will be televised on ESPN's Wednesday Night Fights.  Diaz's forward moving, pressure style will clash with Rodriguez's outside boxing skills.  The 25-year-old Diaz has some good wins under his belt, including a unanimous decision over Chris Smith, who gave the talented Jesus Soto Karass all he could handle in April.  Although Diaz was knocked out in the 11th round by Golden Johnson in November 2006, Diaz was cut early in that fight, and he showed a lot of toughness by hanging with the veteran.  Speaking of toughness, that's something that I question with regard to Rodriguez.  After gassing out trying for the early KO against Jesse Feliciano, he succumbed to the crude banger's inside blows in the 8th round.  In the 15 months since that fight, Rodriguez has only had 12 rounds of boxing.  His previous fight against Troy Browning probably won't prepare Rodriguez for the type of pressure he's going to face tonight, as Browning is more a of a slippery counter-puncher who's still boxing into his 40s largely due to his ability to stay away from the big blows.  Rodriguez was pretty much able to dictate the terms of that fight with his superior speed, but I don't think that'll be the case tonight.  He'll have to engage with Diaz, and I doubt his ability to handle that kind of pressure for 12 rounds. 

While Diaz has that mean look about him, Rodriguez likes to sing love songs on his guitar.  Of course, that doesn't mean much, but it gives you an idea of the differing mentalities of the two men.  Also, the fight will be on Diaz's turf in San Antonio, Texas,so the crowd should be firmly behind him.  In a close fight, that type of support often influences the scoring.  However, I think there's a good chance that this one doesn't even go to the cards, as Diaz exposes the overrated East Coast fighter on national TV.

GL A2C - I'm going with a small play on Diaz too.  It's a close fight and I'm going with the guy moving forward all night.  Simple as that.

GL A2C, I thought about a Diaz play, but didn't pull the trigger.  I definitely like that side of the two.  D-Rod is more talented, but he tends to fade and his chin is not the best by any means.  I have a feeling that Diaz has him in a lot of trouble late, here's hoping he Felicianos him.

BTW, what did you think of that Chavez card last week.  I got to watch it yesterday finally, talk about home cooking.  First of all, I knew Chavez wasn't anything to write home about, but wow I actually had Vanda winning and Vanda is garbage.  I feel like an idiot for betting that Chavez would stop him.  Also, how about those judges in the Donaire fight?  Even the biggest Solis fan would have to at least give Donaire three rounds.

Solis is one of the most overrated boxers alive.  He fights in a division where he should be imposing his will on competitors; instead, he lays back, counters like he's Floyd Mayweather, and then wants the refs to treat him like a star.  Come on!  The guy's 107 pounds, and he's motioning towards the ref at his face when he feels like he's been butted!?  Get a clue, Archi --  you're 107 pounds, and you're not foolin' me.

If there was demand for the fights of Ulises Solis, we'd see some PPV's featuring the small-timer.  But that's just not the case.  Instead, there's a very select group of guys who can compete in that type of division, and the Solis takes the easy route to success.  Basically, Solis is prone to getting in trouble early, so  he resorts to backing up and countering. While he's certainly lost at least 3 rounds on my card in each of his last two competitive fights (Mayol and Donaire), somehow the scores end up reflecting a "dominant" performance.  I wonder how long he can pull off this charade.

Oscar Diaz vs. Delvin Rodriguez
Diaz (+130)
0.75 unit 
Under 9.5 (+280)
0.25 unit 

Whoops!  Delvin is still a chinless clown, but Diaz didn't have the firepower to finish him.  I totally over-estimated Diaz's abilities; it'll be someone else who exposes Delvin.

Props to FB!  Rahman was gonna get beat anyway, so I don't have a whole lot of sympathy. Anyone siding with Toney deserved that one.

Nice assessment.  Yeah, I was on Mayol against him also.  I don't really think much of him.  Apparently though it will take a ton to ever beat him in Mexico based off of Saturday's judging.

Appreciate it.  Yeah, I maybe saw 2 rounds of the ESPN main event.  I did see the replay of D-Rod getting rocked.  I guess your hot streak had to take one fight off, you've been rolling.

 I turned it back over as Diaz was getting medical attention.  Tragic, I hope that he is okay; my prayers are with him.  You could tell from the emotion that Teddy and Joe were showing just how serious the situation was.

Completely agree.  That was scary stuff, let's pray that all is well.