Weekend Picks (5/14/08-5/17/08)

2007: +12.45 units
2008: +0.12 units

Francisco Figueroa vs. Luis Rodriguez
Under 9.5 (+215)
0.75 unit

This is too much value for me to pass up.  Before the lines came out, I thought the total would be set at 7.5, with the under at -120.  That's because Luis Rodriguez is pretty much an unknown Mexican regional fighter who's never faced anyone of note, nor been outside the U.S.  Although Rodriguez has KO'd four of his last five opponents, it's notable that last July he went to a split decision against a guy with a 17-13 record, and in 2006, he lost a split decision to a fighter with a 2-2-1 mark.  Meanwhile, Figueroa's won 10 fights in a row, with seven of those wins coming inside the distance.  It's definitely a bit concerning that he went the distance against Maximino Cuevas and didn't KO the hittable Ubaldo Hernandez until the 12th round.  But even though he went the length in his last fight against Noel Rodriguez, Figueroa easily won that match, and Noel has faced better competition than Luis.  Figueroa needs a KO to properly showcase his talents on Wednesday Night Fights, and I think he's got a good shot. 

Not a bad play at all, didn't work out, but Rodriguez does stink.  If you would have told me this fight would have seen the championship rounds after the first round I would have said you were nuts.

Definitely had the right side here A2C. A "softer" set of cornermen probably stop this fight after the seventh. Rodriguez took a beating in there tonight.

Good play A2C, bad result fight felt like Frankie could have ended it at any point and just never did quite enough.

Francisco Figueroa vs. Luis Rodriguez
Under 9.5 (+215)
 - 0.75 unit 

Thanks for the support, fellas.  I agree with FB's sentiments, as I thought it would be over inside of 5 after I saw that first round, in which the cut opened and Luis was caught off-balance several times.  I kept thinking it had a chance as the fight progressed, but Figueroa just never landed enough punches together to get Luis outta there.  For his part, Luis did a good job of surviving by lowering his head inside so that Figueroa couldn't catch him with more than one or two blows.  Very true that if Luis had cornermen who cared for his well-being, the under might very well have cashed.  Lots of possible value some other unders this weekend, so I'll probably be back with something else before tomorrow evening.  There may even be a dog or two that's worth a shot...

I don't have a whole lotta time today, so I'm just going to post with some brief remarks.  I may be back later to elaborate.

Chris Byrd vs. Shaun George
Under 9.5 (+325)
.31 unit
Byrd no longer has the quickness or stamina to win by running around the ring and slapping opponents.   At light heavy, he may actually have some power, and George has been down before.

Jhonny Gonzalez vs. Mauricio Pastrana
Under 5.5 (+160)
1 unit
I agree with FB's sentiments on this one, and I saw that I can now get it at +160, which I think is a bit of a steal.

James Kirkland vs. Eromosele Albert
Under 9.5 (+140)
2 units
Albert can bang a bit, but he's never faced anyone with Kirkland's power.  The fact that Kirkland didn't get Ossie Duran outta there doesn't really bother me because Duran's shown an iron chin over his career.  I think these guys will end up trading, and then someone's going to hit the canvas (likely Albert).  Kirkland had a bit of a chin problem against Conyers in that one-round war, so it's not out of the question that he could go down.

Yuriorkis Gamboa vs. Darling Jimenez
Under 9.5 (+105)
2 units
Both guys have devastating power at 130, and both are coming off quick KO wins.  Gamboa's never been past the 6th round, while Jimenez has twice gone as far as 8 rounds. This is another fight where some exchanges could happen early, and whoever connects will be sending his opponent into a world of hurt (again, the favorite, Gamboa, is likely to win, but I like the under because I could see either guy landing a KO blow).

Nice line on that Gonzo-Pastrana under, I'm surprised the odds rose back up; I guess people are seeing that low round number (5.5).

Jhonny Gonzalez vs. Mauricio Pastrana
Under 5.5 (+160)
1.60 units 

Gonzalez came alive in the 3rd and finished the job in the next round with a massive uppercut, setting up a knockdown that took everything out of Pastrana. 

 

Nice win Bro. Pastrana was doing well for the first 2 rounds but then Gonzalez came alive.

Chris Byrd vs. Shaun George
Under 9.5 (+325)
+1 unit

Byrd just didn't have the legs nor the quickness to stay with a quality light heavy.  He wasn't getting those extended periods of rest that are all too common in HW fights.  George's handspeed was also pretty impressive.

On both calls tonight A2C. 

Congrats fellas
Great night all around.  Was a little cautious going into this weekend but it's off to a great start.  Great value tomorrow on several plays.  See you guys back here manana.

James Kirkland vs. Eromosele Albert
Under 9.5 (+140)
+2.8 units

  Now that was a no-stresser.  Great call.

Yuriorkis Gamboa vs. Darling Jimenez
Under 9.5 (+105)
-2 units

That was a tough one to take.  Jimenez ate a bunch of shots, but even though he gave some back, you kinda knew it was never gonna be enough to overcome the hole he had dug for himself.  Sure, Jimenez sent Gamboa to the floor at one point, but you kinda got the feeling that Gamboa was never in any danger of losing control of the action..  Gamboa quite simply took command of the fight, and the fact that he kept his hands down was just a sign that he knew he wasn't being threatened.

I feel like the knockdown impeded Gamboa from getting the stoppage. Gamboa seemed to hold back, even if just a slight bit after it. Secondly, if Jimenez doesnt score that, I would hope the corner or the ref would have stopped it at some point. Oh well.