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Weekend Picks (4/8 - 4/11)

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Posted: #1
2007: +12.45 units
2008: -5.86 units

Rayonta Whitfield vs. Manuel Vargas
Whitfield by 12 Round Decision (-128)
1.28 units

I like Whitfield to use his quick hands and movement to outpoint the steady Vargas in Whitfield's backyard.  Whitfield's best win came against Carlos Tamara, and that's quite impressive considering how technically sound Tamara looked against Alejandro Hernandez last December.  Meanwhile, Vargas' best win was against the tough Juan Esquer, but I don't think that victory means much in this one, as Esquer is a completely different fighter than Whitfield.  Esquer is more a free-swinging pressure fighter who can be outboxed.   I see Whitfield as being more athletically gifted than Vargas, and that should be the difference in a nip-and-tuck battle that likely goes the distance. 
 
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Posted: #2
Vargas actually beat Edgar Sosa a long time ago. He looks like live opposition but everything I've read says that Whitfield was the real deal as an amateur and has been as a pro. Fighting right at home certainly doesn't hurt. I think I might tail you with this play.

good luck.
 
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Posted: #3
I agry. Though I only have Ray SU at the moment. (w/ a tennis match that has won).


bigeiii
 
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Posted: #4
I saw a bit of value in the under price and went small on it.  Also threw Whitfield in with Margarito.  Can't say though that I disagree with you, a Whitfield decision does look like the most probable outcome.
 
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Posted: #5
PSA: be awares that ESPN2 is tape-delayed. So the Inet could spoil the outcome for you.

Fullbrights, why do you thing G.Houston picked this upset? Has me a touch concerned. If you had to play Vargas, how would you do that? TIA.

GLA!
bigeiii
 
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Posted: #6
Quote Originally Posted by bigeiii:

PSA: be awares that ESPN2 is tape-delayed. So the Inet could spoil the outcome for you.

Fullbrights, why do you thing G.Houston picked this upset? Has me a touch concerned. If you had to play Vargas, how would you do that? TIA.

GLA!
bigeiii


I don't know, I'm reading that he hasn't seen Vargas like the rest of us.  As I've said before I don't really put much into what he says predictions wise; the guy is real solid for info, but not much more.  He seems to always leave himself a way out, "I'll take the 4-1 fave, but I think the dog is live here."  Then say in a post fight write-up; "as I said John Doe had a very good chance" when the underdog wins.
 
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Posted: #7
Quote Originally Posted by Fullbrights:



I don't know, I'm reading that he hasn't seen Vargas like the rest of us.  As I've said before I don't really put much into what he says predictions wise; the guy is real solid for info, but not much more.  He seems to always leave himself a way out, "I'll take the 4-1 fave, but I think the dog is live here."  Then say in a post fight write-up; "as I said John Doe had a very good chance" when the underdog wins.


This is from Houston's writeup of last week's Derry Matthews fight:

"I will be surprised if Choi wins and I am expecting a hard-fought decision victory for Matthews. If Matthews goes toe-to-toe, though, he could get into trouble, which is why the possibility exists of an upset." 

Perhaps, Mr. Houston got some crap for his equivocation, and now he's going to start calling for more upsets?
 
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Posted: #8
i agree, he covers his ass in most write ups by off handedly suggesting the dog may pull it off, but rarely does he predict an outright upset like in the vargas-whitfield piece. ive had a couple of great paydays betting on his upset predictions. i will not however be laying on vargas tonight.
 
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Posted: #9
Vargas +250 for me. You probably win, but I think it'll have to be shady and scandalous.
 
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by A2C:



This is from Houston's writeup of last week's Derry Matthews fight:

"I will be surprised if Choi wins and I am expecting a hard-fought decision victory for Matthews. If Matthews goes toe-to-toe, though, he could get into trouble, which is why the possibility exists of an upset." 

Perhaps, Mr. Houston got some crap for his equivocation, and now he's going to start calling for more upsets?


Yeah, he's pretty much done this from the beginning of the site or at least ever since I first saw the banner on fightnews for it.  Which is why I have never really taken much heed in how he sees a fight outcome.  He's got some great info week in and week out, but as I said and Eldorado followed up with he pretty much always covers himself.  It's hard to get a prediction wrong if somehow you suggest both fighters will win isn't it?
 
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by eldorado:

i agree, he covers his ass in most write ups by off handedly suggesting the dog may pull it off, but rarely does he predict an outright upset like in the vargas-whitfield piece. ive had a couple of great paydays betting on his upset predictions. i will not however be laying on vargas tonight.


Agreed.  He nailed the Penalosa KO prop when it sat at 7-1 in the Jhonny Gonzalez fight.

But for the most part, he sides with the chalk.  In a way, the site's great for the books because anybody who blindly follows Houston ends up losing a lot of money on some overpriced faves..


 
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Posted: #12
Nice hit A2C, exactly how you wrote it up. Vargas battled, but was outboxed.
 
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Posted: #13
Haha 117-111, that's hilarious.
 
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Posted: #14
Nice cash A2C.  Good call.

Letmespin- The 117-111 was a bit laughable; I guess that judge was reading up on his Masters preview.
 
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by LetMeSpin:

Haha 117-111, that's hilarious.

I had a feeling that scoring would not favor Vargas in this one. Main reason I liked RW in the fight!

 
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Posted: #16
Rayonta Whitfield vs. Manuel Vargas
Whitfield by 12 Round Decision (-128) 
1 unit
 
 
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Posted: #17
5 Leg Parlay:
Buddy McGirt Jr. (-400)
Jesus Soto Karass (-600)
Henry Bruseles (-345)
Miguel Cotto Points Handicap -12.5 (-380)
Chad Dawson (-360)

1 unit to win 2.03 units

With one of the biggest boxing weekends of the year upon us, I've come up with a chalky parlay that actually pays pretty well. Wish I would have posted it earlier today when the price on Soto Karass was around -450.  Interesting that there's not much line movement on Dawson so far. Might be back with a dog play but this is probably it for the weekend.  I will say, there are a couple other plays I'm on the fence with that look solid but that I'm reluctant to pull the trigger on. 
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