I'm going to get this thread started a little early this week since we have a full docket of fights this weekend, starting with the action on Versus Thursday night.
I have one parlay still pending from last weekend:
Mabuza (-800), Jennings (-800), Khan (-1500), Barrett (-600), Williams (-600) 5-leg parlay (-120) 1.2 units (to win 1 unit)
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
I'm going to get this thread started a little early this week since we have a full docket of fights this weekend, starting with the action on Versus Thursday night.
I have one parlay still pending from last weekend:
Mabuza (-800), Jennings (-800), Khan (-1500), Barrett (-600), Williams (-600) 5-leg parlay (-120) 1.2 units (to win 1 unit)
Paul Williams vs. Carlos Quintana Under 9.5 rounds (-120) 3.60 units
This weekend's main event on HBO is one of the most eagerly anticpiated bouts in recent memory, with the return of Paul "The Punisher" Williams (33-0, 24 KO's) taking on the tough Puerto Rican Carlos Quintana (24-1, 19 KO's) in Temecula, California. Williams has had a tough time finding somebody to step into the ring with him after he outpointed the always dangerous Antonio Margarito for the WBO welterweight title during a raucus East Coast-West Coast double headers on HBO last July.
I see a similar opportunity here to what we saw with Diaz-Diaz last October. Plain and simple, I like volume punchers against fighters that have a history of bending or breaking. I see someone in Quintana who's a little past their prime and hasn't ever been close to the level of Williams. Williams has been out of the ring since the Margarito fight for one simple reason: nobody wanted anything to do with him. Cintron copped out, Mayweather pretends he doesn't exits, De La Hoya is fighting Steve Forbes for crying out loud and even Cotto has ignored him.
I can see how conventional logic would dictate that this should go the length. Williams may even want to get the maximum number of rounds in because he's been out of the ring so long and since he doesn't stand much of a chance of getting seriously hurt by Quintana.
Once the opening bell sounds Saturday night, I think it's just a matter of time before Quintana's will is broken down so severely that he or his corner will be forced to throw in the towel. The barrage of punches that the Punisher threw at Margarito during the first 6 or 7 rounds would have sent most boxers into an early retirement. Considering that Margarito has never been stopped and that he's one of the elite welterweights, I can justify that fight going the length. If you exclude that bout, Williams' previous 5 fights ended ITD, so whether or not it's power punches or just an accumulation of punches, he's proven that he can finish off lesser-tier fighters before the final bell sounds. I simply see Quintana as 2, maybe 3 notches below Williams. Quintana has only been the length 4 times in his professional career and 4 of those fights were against trash opponents. The other was against Joel Julio, who I would barely rate as "good" due to his deplorable footwork and lack of fundamentals. There is too much of a chasm in class b/w the Punisher and Quintana for this to go the length.
One other thing: The under prop covers the extremely unlikely possibility that Quintana catches Williams with something magical. That's the only way the Puerto Rican wins. However, that's such a longshot that it hardly merits discussion. In all likelihood, Williams will break down Quintana by utilizing his hyper-workrate coupled with his incredible reach and height advantages. This is a mismatch if I've ever seen one and I think the people playing the over will be regretting their choice once they see how incredibly outclassed Quintana is against the freakish Williams.
Paul Williams vs. Carlos Quintana Under 9.5 rounds (-120) 3.60 units
This weekend's main event on HBO is one of the most eagerly anticpiated bouts in recent memory, with the return of Paul "The Punisher" Williams (33-0, 24 KO's) taking on the tough Puerto Rican Carlos Quintana (24-1, 19 KO's) in Temecula, California. Williams has had a tough time finding somebody to step into the ring with him after he outpointed the always dangerous Antonio Margarito for the WBO welterweight title during a raucus East Coast-West Coast double headers on HBO last July.
I see a similar opportunity here to what we saw with Diaz-Diaz last October. Plain and simple, I like volume punchers against fighters that have a history of bending or breaking. I see someone in Quintana who's a little past their prime and hasn't ever been close to the level of Williams. Williams has been out of the ring since the Margarito fight for one simple reason: nobody wanted anything to do with him. Cintron copped out, Mayweather pretends he doesn't exits, De La Hoya is fighting Steve Forbes for crying out loud and even Cotto has ignored him.
I can see how conventional logic would dictate that this should go the length. Williams may even want to get the maximum number of rounds in because he's been out of the ring so long and since he doesn't stand much of a chance of getting seriously hurt by Quintana.
Once the opening bell sounds Saturday night, I think it's just a matter of time before Quintana's will is broken down so severely that he or his corner will be forced to throw in the towel. The barrage of punches that the Punisher threw at Margarito during the first 6 or 7 rounds would have sent most boxers into an early retirement. Considering that Margarito has never been stopped and that he's one of the elite welterweights, I can justify that fight going the length. If you exclude that bout, Williams' previous 5 fights ended ITD, so whether or not it's power punches or just an accumulation of punches, he's proven that he can finish off lesser-tier fighters before the final bell sounds. I simply see Quintana as 2, maybe 3 notches below Williams. Quintana has only been the length 4 times in his professional career and 4 of those fights were against trash opponents. The other was against Joel Julio, who I would barely rate as "good" due to his deplorable footwork and lack of fundamentals. There is too much of a chasm in class b/w the Punisher and Quintana for this to go the length.
One other thing: The under prop covers the extremely unlikely possibility that Quintana catches Williams with something magical. That's the only way the Puerto Rican wins. However, that's such a longshot that it hardly merits discussion. In all likelihood, Williams will break down Quintana by utilizing his hyper-workrate coupled with his incredible reach and height advantages. This is a mismatch if I've ever seen one and I think the people playing the over will be regretting their choice once they see how incredibly outclassed Quintana is against the freakish Williams.
This isn't meant as a criticism, more to help you out. You should use multiple outs. You can get a much better number on that under at 5dimes and thegreek at +105.
This isn't meant as a criticism, more to help you out. You should use multiple outs. You can get a much better number on that under at 5dimes and thegreek at +105.
This isn't meant as a criticism, more to help you out. You should use multiple outs. You can get a much better number on that under at 5dimes and thegreek at +105.
You're right. It's wise to keep a few accounts so you can shop for the best value. The -120 figure, not surprisingly, was from the juice kings Bodog.
Quote Originally Posted by mayweatherfan:
This isn't meant as a criticism, more to help you out. You should use multiple outs. You can get a much better number on that under at 5dimes and thegreek at +105.
You're right. It's wise to keep a few accounts so you can shop for the best value. The -120 figure, not surprisingly, was from the juice kings Bodog.
Williams will carry Quintana past the number, as he is looking to get some quality work in and stay sharp for his showdown with either Cintron or Margarito rematch.
Williams by 11 round stoppage.
Williams will carry Quintana past the number, as he is looking to get some quality work in and stay sharp for his showdown with either Cintron or Margarito rematch.
Did you consider just taking PWilly ITD. I'd say a stoppage in the last 3 rounds is far more likely than Quintana catching Williams with something huge.
Did you consider just taking PWilly ITD. I'd say a stoppage in the last 3 rounds is far more likely than Quintana catching Williams with something huge.
Marco Antonio Rubio vs. Jose Luis Zertuche Zertuche (+160) 1 unit
I shouldn't have waited so long to post this play, as Zertuche opened in the +250 range. But even at +160, I think that Zertuche's a bargain against Rubio, who hasn't fought a quality opponent since moving up to middleweight. Also, when Rubio stepped up in class at light middleweight (against Kassim Ouma, Kofi Jantuah, and Zaurbek Baysangurov), Rubio got beat. Meanwhile, Zertuche should be fresh since taking a year off following his devastating KO loss to one of the best punchers in the history of the middleweight division, Kelly Pavlik. There's no shame in getting KO'd by Pavlik, and that experience should actually be good for Zertuche, as Rubio will seem like a light puncher by comparison. Also, Zertuche should be chomping at the bit to get the sour taste of that defeat out of his mouth. Despite being KO'd by Pavlik, Zertuche gets the honor of lasting longer than both Edison Miranda and Jermain Taylor. He actually has a good chin, so I don't expect Rubio to be able to back him down. Zertuche will steadily wear down Rubio with his power punches, and I expect a stoppage in the latter half of the fight because defense isn't on the forefront of Rubio's mind when he steps into the ring.
Marco Antonio Rubio vs. Jose Luis Zertuche Zertuche (+160) 1 unit
I shouldn't have waited so long to post this play, as Zertuche opened in the +250 range. But even at +160, I think that Zertuche's a bargain against Rubio, who hasn't fought a quality opponent since moving up to middleweight. Also, when Rubio stepped up in class at light middleweight (against Kassim Ouma, Kofi Jantuah, and Zaurbek Baysangurov), Rubio got beat. Meanwhile, Zertuche should be fresh since taking a year off following his devastating KO loss to one of the best punchers in the history of the middleweight division, Kelly Pavlik. There's no shame in getting KO'd by Pavlik, and that experience should actually be good for Zertuche, as Rubio will seem like a light puncher by comparison. Also, Zertuche should be chomping at the bit to get the sour taste of that defeat out of his mouth. Despite being KO'd by Pavlik, Zertuche gets the honor of lasting longer than both Edison Miranda and Jermain Taylor. He actually has a good chin, so I don't expect Rubio to be able to back him down. Zertuche will steadily wear down Rubio with his power punches, and I expect a stoppage in the latter half of the fight because defense isn't on the forefront of Rubio's mind when he steps into the ring.
Bernabe Concepcion vs. Juan Ruiz Under 9.5 (+140) .5 unit
Although Ruiz has never been KO'd, the best puncher he's faced is the inconsistent Antonio Escalante. 20-year-old Concepcion appears poised to make the jump to elite status in the featherweight division, and he should have too much speed and power for the light-hitting Ruiz to handle. I saw Concepcion blast out Gabriel Elizondo in the fourth round on an untelevised undercard bout of the Morales-Diaz PPV last August in Chicago. Elizondo was expected to give Concepcion a decent fight, but it seems like Concepcion is just ahead of the curve at this point in his young career. I expect him to make a statement on PPV tomorrow night, as he shows that he's ready for bigger matchups.
Bernabe Concepcion vs. Juan Ruiz Under 9.5 (+140) .5 unit
Although Ruiz has never been KO'd, the best puncher he's faced is the inconsistent Antonio Escalante. 20-year-old Concepcion appears poised to make the jump to elite status in the featherweight division, and he should have too much speed and power for the light-hitting Ruiz to handle. I saw Concepcion blast out Gabriel Elizondo in the fourth round on an untelevised undercard bout of the Morales-Diaz PPV last August in Chicago. Elizondo was expected to give Concepcion a decent fight, but it seems like Concepcion is just ahead of the curve at this point in his young career. I expect him to make a statement on PPV tomorrow night, as he shows that he's ready for bigger matchups.
Olusegun (-600), Concepcion (-1100), Chavez, Jr. (-1700), Berto (-850), Williams (-675) 5-leg parlay (-138) 1.38 units
I've been having some success with parlaying recently. As long as the boxers are in their respective primes and are pretty much having tune-up fights, these parlays seem relatively safe. Also, unlike Snippets, I like to keep the unit size manageable and string enough of the prohibitive faves together to get a payoff that's somewhat close to even money.
Olusegun (-600), Concepcion (-1100), Chavez, Jr. (-1700), Berto (-850), Williams (-675) 5-leg parlay (-138) 1.38 units
I've been having some success with parlaying recently. As long as the boxers are in their respective primes and are pretty much having tune-up fights, these parlays seem relatively safe. Also, unlike Snippets, I like to keep the unit size manageable and string enough of the prohibitive faves together to get a payoff that's somewhat close to even money.
I couldnt agree more on P-Dub dudes a punching machine the only thing stopping this from going under the number is P-Dub wants the work,Also its @ -105 @ my book
I couldnt agree more on P-Dub dudes a punching machine the only thing stopping this from going under the number is P-Dub wants the work,Also its @ -105 @ my book
Bernabe Concepcion vs. Juan Ruiz Under 9.5 (+140) .5 unit
Although Ruiz has never been KO'd, the best puncher he's faced is the inconsistent Antonio Escalante. 20-year-old Concepcion appears poised to make the jump to elite status in the featherweight division, and he should have too much speed and power for the light-hitting Ruiz to handle. I saw Concepcion blast out Gabriel Elizondo in the fourth round on an untelevised undercard bout of the Morales-Diaz PPV last August in Chicago. Elizondo was expected to give Concepcion a decent fight, but it seems like Concepcion is just ahead of the curve at this point in his young career. I expect him to make a statement on PPV tomorrow night, as he shows that he's ready for bigger matchups.
I was on the cusp of betting this last night at +170, but decided against it. I think you have a good shot here. Good luck.
Quote Originally Posted by A2C:
Bernabe Concepcion vs. Juan Ruiz Under 9.5 (+140) .5 unit
Although Ruiz has never been KO'd, the best puncher he's faced is the inconsistent Antonio Escalante. 20-year-old Concepcion appears poised to make the jump to elite status in the featherweight division, and he should have too much speed and power for the light-hitting Ruiz to handle. I saw Concepcion blast out Gabriel Elizondo in the fourth round on an untelevised undercard bout of the Morales-Diaz PPV last August in Chicago. Elizondo was expected to give Concepcion a decent fight, but it seems like Concepcion is just ahead of the curve at this point in his young career. I expect him to make a statement on PPV tomorrow night, as he shows that he's ready for bigger matchups.
I was on the cusp of betting this last night at +170, but decided against it. I think you have a good shot here. Good luck.
Andre Berto vs. Michel Trabant Berto by Decision (+257) 1 unit
I think the books had this one right when they initially released the lines, and the over was set at close to even money. Since then, bettors pounded the under, driving the price to -180 in some places (with the over 9.5 being at +165). Berto definitely has huge power, as demonstrated by his 11th round KO over David Estrada. But let's keep in mind that it took Berto 11 rounds to end that one, and Cosme Rivera took him the distance in his penultimate fight last July. Berto tends to follow opponents who try to box him, as he hasn't yet shown an ability to cut off the ring in a manner that forces competent boxers into uncomfortable spots where they're forced to slug it out with the stronger man. Trabant can definitely move, and he's never been stopped. Until Berto shows that he's reached the level where he can hurt crafty ring veterans from the start, he's likely to fight lengthy bouts. At +257 odds, I see value in betting Berto by decision here, as opposed to the over 9.5 at +165. If the 10-rounder goes to the scorecards, Berto will almost surely win.
Andre Berto vs. Michel Trabant Berto by Decision (+257) 1 unit
I think the books had this one right when they initially released the lines, and the over was set at close to even money. Since then, bettors pounded the under, driving the price to -180 in some places (with the over 9.5 being at +165). Berto definitely has huge power, as demonstrated by his 11th round KO over David Estrada. But let's keep in mind that it took Berto 11 rounds to end that one, and Cosme Rivera took him the distance in his penultimate fight last July. Berto tends to follow opponents who try to box him, as he hasn't yet shown an ability to cut off the ring in a manner that forces competent boxers into uncomfortable spots where they're forced to slug it out with the stronger man. Trabant can definitely move, and he's never been stopped. Until Berto shows that he's reached the level where he can hurt crafty ring veterans from the start, he's likely to fight lengthy bouts. At +257 odds, I see value in betting Berto by decision here, as opposed to the over 9.5 at +165. If the 10-rounder goes to the scorecards, Berto will almost surely win.
I'm here in Vegas FB, along with 5 of my good college buddies and a huge constituency of Youngstown peeps. On hiatus from making picks other than my own for now. Once I get back into the swing of things, I'll probably be back. For now, it's off to check on the odds for KP by KO.
I've enjoyed the lively thread you've got going this week. I'll try to post again before I go over to the MGM tomorrow. Can't wait.
I'm here in Vegas FB, along with 5 of my good college buddies and a huge constituency of Youngstown peeps. On hiatus from making picks other than my own for now. Once I get back into the swing of things, I'll probably be back. For now, it's off to check on the odds for KP by KO.
I've enjoyed the lively thread you've got going this week. I'll try to post again before I go over to the MGM tomorrow. Can't wait.
I'm here in Vegas FB, along with 5 of my good college buddies and a huge constituency of Youngstown peeps. On hiatus from making picks other than my own for now. Once I get back into the swing of things, I'll probably be back. For now, it's off to check on the odds for KP by KO.
I've enjoyed the lively thread you've got going this week. I'll try to post again before I go over to the MGM tomorrow. Can't wait.
Good to hear your kicking. Have fun man, you picked a great fight to attend. Is the Youngstown presence large? It sounded like it at the weigh in. Did you get to go?
No worries, keep posting though; you know the sport. Public capping isn't for everyone, especially with unit totals. Some people don't want their losses in black and white, that's not to say you are a losing bettor.
Quote Originally Posted by A2C:
I'm here in Vegas FB, along with 5 of my good college buddies and a huge constituency of Youngstown peeps. On hiatus from making picks other than my own for now. Once I get back into the swing of things, I'll probably be back. For now, it's off to check on the odds for KP by KO.
I've enjoyed the lively thread you've got going this week. I'll try to post again before I go over to the MGM tomorrow. Can't wait.
Good to hear your kicking. Have fun man, you picked a great fight to attend. Is the Youngstown presence large? It sounded like it at the weigh in. Did you get to go?
No worries, keep posting though; you know the sport. Public capping isn't for everyone, especially with unit totals. Some people don't want their losses in black and white, that's not to say you are a losing bettor.
Good to hear your kicking. Have fun man, you picked a great fight to attend. Is the Youngstown presence large? It sounded like it at the weigh in. Did you get to go?
No worries, keep posting though; you know the sport. Public capping isn't for everyone, especially with unit totals. Some people don't want their losses in black and white, that's not to say you are a losing bettor.
To expound further, one of the main reasons that I do it is because I find that it helps me stay disciplined with my bankroll management and if others look it helps them know how much a play is weighted.
Quote Originally Posted by Fullbrights:
Good to hear your kicking. Have fun man, you picked a great fight to attend. Is the Youngstown presence large? It sounded like it at the weigh in. Did you get to go?
No worries, keep posting though; you know the sport. Public capping isn't for everyone, especially with unit totals. Some people don't want their losses in black and white, that's not to say you are a losing bettor.
To expound further, one of the main reasons that I do it is because I find that it helps me stay disciplined with my bankroll management and if others look it helps them know how much a play is weighted.
Good Luck.
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