Weekend Picks (2/29 - 3/1)

2008: -7.43 units

Robert Guerrero vs.  Jason Litzau
Under 7.5 (-135)
1.35 units

24-year-old Guerrero showed power, poise, and intelligence in his first-round KO of Martin Honorio last November.  Honorio, who hadn't shown much of a chin problem in the past, had a technical weakness: he leads with his head.  Guerrero spotted this while watching film of his opponent, and he exploited it inside of the first minute of the fight, with a perfect straight left that sent Honorio to the canvas.  (Guerrero's performance was all the more impressive considering that his wife had been diagnosed with leukemia in the weeks leading up to the fight).  If Guerrero could exploit Honorio's subtle technical flaw, it's fun to imagine what he'll do with the defensively inept Litzau, who likes to wing punches in an attempt to land the big KO blow.  Litzau's "strategy" worked well at the beginning of his career when he faced bad competition, but since stepping up against more experienced fighters, he's struggled.  He was KO'd by the ordinary Jose Hernandez 14 months ago, and since then, he's looked hittable and crude.  Although he KO'd Emmanuel Lucero in August, I don't take much stock in that fight because Lucero was damaged goods after being stopped by Manny Pacquiao, Daniel Ponce de Leon, and Rocky Juarez.  I'm expecting a quick night, as Guerrero shouldn't have any problems finding Litzau, who's already shown a suspect chin.  I'm thinking that this is over within four rounds, so I don't mind laying a little chalk on the under 7.5. 

Also, if Litzau does happen to get lucky and land a big blow, my bet covers this possibility as long as it happens inside of 7.5 rounds.  I see a KO as Litzau's only chance of winning this fight.

Allan Green vs. Antwon Echols
Under 9.5 (Even)
2 units

Allan Green battles aging veteran Antwon Echols this Friday night on ESPN.  Green turn in what many considered a lackluster and stylistically awkward performance during his last fight (also on ESPN) against Rubin Williams last month - a fight many, myself included, thought would be over rather quickly, but ended up going the length.  What's important to realize about that fight, aside from the fact that Green apparently had trained himself (hence his constant looking down at his feet, which he attributed to making sure he was positioning himself correctly) is that it was Green's first fight back after he had major surgery in which almost his entire colon was removed. I had pegged the under in that fight as a virtual no-brainer and was just about ready to smash my tv when I heard Green saying that he intended to go all 10 rounds in the post fight interview.  This time I expect a very different performance from Green, who, to his credit, has only gone the distance 7 times in his 27 pro bouts.  By matter of comparison, it's important to consider that 6 of the 27 fights ended within the 1st round.  Green is on the rise as a fighter and I don't think we've seen his best work yet.  Surely he will be looking to make a big splash this time out, especially against a fighter who seems to be moving in the exact opposite direction.  Echols has been fighting professionally for 15 years and was, in all likelihood, at the top of his game in 1999 when he fought the 1st of his 2 fights against Bernard Hopkins.  It's well worth noting that Green and Echols have a common opponent in Williams.  I didn't give Williams a single round against Green, while Echols struggled to earn a draw against him in January of 2007.  Further to Echols' discredit is the fact that he was KO'd in the 10th round against Kingsley Ikeke almost 3 years ago (the same Ikeke who recently lost to the ordinary, crude and in the words of Green himself "fraudulent" Jean Pascal).  I expect to see fantastic damage this Friday night from Green and I don't give Echols much of a chance of lasting more than 7 or 8 rounds, making the under 9.5 rounds proposition at even money quite attractive.

Grammatical correction - 2nd sentence in the Green preview should have read "Green turned in..."

Like both of those, I'm looking at ITD props though.

Damn, word is that Green pulled out of this fight due to a dispute with his promoter (Tony Holden).  Although that pisses me off because I was very confident in the under play, Green is probably best served by getting away from Holden, who seems to be stalling Green's career advancement with stupid decisions, such as turning down an HBO-televised fight with Andre Ward (and taking the ESPN2 fight against Rubin Williams, instead).

Israel Vazquez vs. Rafael Marquez
Vazquez by KO (+111)
5 units

This line's going to get pounded, so I'm on it big time right now.  After re-watching the first two fights, I'm convinced that Vazquez will stop Marquez unless he gets severely cut or breaks his nose again.  Vazquez' power punches hurt Marquez, while Vazquez simply shakes off Marquez' best shots.  Although Marquez could have success if he boxes a technically perfect fight, defense just isn't Marquez' style.  He became a champion because of his tremendous offensive ability, and now that he's nearing the end of a great career, I can't see him suddenly switching styles.  While I expect this fight to begin a bit slower than the second fight, they'll eventually begin trading, and then it becomes a war of attrition in which the stronger man prevails.  That's Vazquez.

Clarification: my play is Vazquez Inside the Distance (+111)

Nice eagle eye A2C.
twons new opponent does not read all that bad. Prolly an even better fight on paper for it. One has to presume Walker is in decent-shape, as he fought 27 days ago.

bigeiii

I don't think Holden is to blame here, pretty shady stuff by Green.  I guess he doesn't mind a suspension and a fine.

On the topic of turning down the Ward fight.  Steve Kim touched on this a bit at the time it happened.  Holden/Green already had a signed contract with ESPN, what are you supposed to do in that situation?  If you back out you face legal action and also burn that ESPN bridge.  ESPN has been very good to Green in garnering exposure, to me it was a logical choice.

Like the Litzau under of course.  His speed and activity may cause Robert a bit of trouble early, but Litzau is pretty easy to hit and he doesn't have much of a chin to count on.

Nice line on Vazquez ITD, it does seem like the logical result here.

Yutaka Niida vs. Jose Luis Varela
Under 11.5 (+220)
.4 unit

Although Niida isn't a KO guy, Varela has had problems with cuts, and I could see a technical decision happening in this one.  Niida has caused a recent fight to end early due to accidentally headbutting his opponent (Gejon).  With Varela coming off a bout that was stopped due to a cut caused by an accidental butt in the first round, it seems like it's worth a small risk to hit this under at better than 2-1 odds. 

Vitali Tajbert vs. Jesus Garcia Escalona
Under 9.5 (+230)
.4 unit

This is definitely a speculative play (I haven't seen either fighter), but I think it's worth a shot.  Tajbert has a solid amateur background, and he's fought better competition than Escalona.  Also, Tajbert is a pressure fighter, which should result in some exchanges against Escalona.  I've read reports that Tajbert has used some of his prior matches as sparring sessions, so that explains the lack of KO's on his record.  In a championship-level fight, I expect Tajbert to try for the stoppage if Escalona leaves him an opening.  At +230 odds, it seems like a solid investment. 

Hopefully, I'll win at least one of these two "speculative" plays.

I put another Parlay in on the canceled FNF's side. Now on Walker.

bigeiii

Echols moves on to fight another day with the draw which could be a dangerous thing.