Mario Santiago vs. Edel Ruiz Over 7.5 (+115) 1 unit
Bodog is still offering these enticing odds on a fight that should go the distance. I saw that 5dimes had it offered at -150 last night, but now the odds have been taken off the board, so some of you may have trouble finding this play. Santiago's a solid boxer who had a seven-fight KO streak halted when he lost a technical decision to Hector Velazquez in July 2007 (importantly, the fight was stopped due to cuts on Velazquez, as opposed to Santiago). Fighting Velazquez was a bit of a step up for Santiago, and unfortunately HBO didn't televise the fight on the Forrest-Baldomir undercard. But reports indicate that Velazquez' rough style gave Santiago problems, and if that's the case, then Edel Ruiz should prove to be a handful tonight. Ruiz's only KO losses came against Eduardo Escobedo and Juan Manuel Lopez. Both were recent fights, so if Santiago is on par with Escobedo and Lopez in terms of skill and power, then this is a dumb play. But I don't think that either Escobedo or Lopez would've lost to Velazquez. In fact, I believe that Escobedo's pinpoint counters would've led to a wide decision win, and Lopez would've had a chance at a late stoppage. So, I'm putting Santiago in a class below Escobedo and Lopez. Ruiz is tough enough to give Santiago some problems, and I'm expecting a fight that goes the length.
2007: +12.45 units 2008: -3.3 units
Mario Santiago vs. Edel Ruiz Over 7.5 (+115) 1 unit
Bodog is still offering these enticing odds on a fight that should go the distance. I saw that 5dimes had it offered at -150 last night, but now the odds have been taken off the board, so some of you may have trouble finding this play. Santiago's a solid boxer who had a seven-fight KO streak halted when he lost a technical decision to Hector Velazquez in July 2007 (importantly, the fight was stopped due to cuts on Velazquez, as opposed to Santiago). Fighting Velazquez was a bit of a step up for Santiago, and unfortunately HBO didn't televise the fight on the Forrest-Baldomir undercard. But reports indicate that Velazquez' rough style gave Santiago problems, and if that's the case, then Edel Ruiz should prove to be a handful tonight. Ruiz's only KO losses came against Eduardo Escobedo and Juan Manuel Lopez. Both were recent fights, so if Santiago is on par with Escobedo and Lopez in terms of skill and power, then this is a dumb play. But I don't think that either Escobedo or Lopez would've lost to Velazquez. In fact, I believe that Escobedo's pinpoint counters would've led to a wide decision win, and Lopez would've had a chance at a late stoppage. So, I'm putting Santiago in a class below Escobedo and Lopez. Ruiz is tough enough to give Santiago some problems, and I'm expecting a fight that goes the length.
Vic Darchinyan vs. Z Gorres Darchinyan (-135) 4.05 units
Super flyweights Vic “The Raging Bull” Darchinyan and Z. Gorres face-off this Saturday in the Philippines at the Waterfront Hotel & Casino, CebuCity.This is a bout I’ve had my eye on for quite a while, especially since I was on the other side of Darchinyan during his stunning defeat last summer at the hands of flyweight Nonito Donaire.In that fight, Darchinyan was a huge favorite who allowed himself to get caught with a huge left from Donaire that canvassed him for good.Darchinyan was guilty of throwing wide, looping shots that kept himself open for a big bomb, which ultimately came in the 5th.I think Darchinyan fatally underestimated his opponent that night, largely in part since he had disposed of Nonito’s brother, Glenn Donaire, in a brutal manner roughly 9 months before in Las Vegas.I don’t see the Raging Bull making the same defensive mistakes against his fellow southpaw Gorres, especially since there is a fair chance the Philippine resident could end up winning a close battle should it go to the scorecards.For Darchinyan to win against Gorres, he will look to land a haymaker similar to the one Nonito landed against him. This is only Darchinyan’s 2nd fight at super flyweight, so there is a chance we could see a slightly less powerful fighter than we saw against Victor Burgos and Luis Maldonado but I don’t think so.All of Darchinyan’s fights since late 2003 have ended inside the distance and I expect a similar result tonight, with the Raging Bull handing Gorres his 2nd stoppage loss sometime around the 7th or 8th round.
Vic Darchinyan vs. Z Gorres Darchinyan (-135) 4.05 units
Super flyweights Vic “The Raging Bull” Darchinyan and Z. Gorres face-off this Saturday in the Philippines at the Waterfront Hotel & Casino, CebuCity.This is a bout I’ve had my eye on for quite a while, especially since I was on the other side of Darchinyan during his stunning defeat last summer at the hands of flyweight Nonito Donaire.In that fight, Darchinyan was a huge favorite who allowed himself to get caught with a huge left from Donaire that canvassed him for good.Darchinyan was guilty of throwing wide, looping shots that kept himself open for a big bomb, which ultimately came in the 5th.I think Darchinyan fatally underestimated his opponent that night, largely in part since he had disposed of Nonito’s brother, Glenn Donaire, in a brutal manner roughly 9 months before in Las Vegas.I don’t see the Raging Bull making the same defensive mistakes against his fellow southpaw Gorres, especially since there is a fair chance the Philippine resident could end up winning a close battle should it go to the scorecards.For Darchinyan to win against Gorres, he will look to land a haymaker similar to the one Nonito landed against him. This is only Darchinyan’s 2nd fight at super flyweight, so there is a chance we could see a slightly less powerful fighter than we saw against Victor Burgos and Luis Maldonado but I don’t think so.All of Darchinyan’s fights since late 2003 have ended inside the distance and I expect a similar result tonight, with the Raging Bull handing Gorres his 2nd stoppage loss sometime around the 7th or 8th round.
MMClay by Decision & Aiken ITD. Parlayed w/ Khan & Lee.
MMC may be able to run & peck his way to a decision, & moving down won't hurt his Power any. But he had a lotta trouble w/ the strenght & Voltage of the Cherry-bomb. Aiken has not been as nice in his last 3 fights, but he does have the Voltage edge here.
GLA! bigeiii
MMClay by Decision & Aiken ITD. Parlayed w/ Khan & Lee.
MMC may be able to run & peck his way to a decision, & moving down won't hurt his Power any. But he had a lotta trouble w/ the strenght & Voltage of the Cherry-bomb. Aiken has not been as nice in his last 3 fights, but he does have the Voltage edge here.
Interesting to see you are on Vic with such a heavily weighted play for you.
I have always thought that Vic was limited and with time would get exposed, but I took Donaire by decision and missed out on the opportunity. Of course Vic's greatest asset is his power which may bode well since Gorres's biggest weakness is his chin. I get the feeling Gorres finds a way in his home country for some reason. I had him losing by a point to Montiel with the deductions and he impressed me even in defeat, but he was buzzed few times late. I caught his fight with Ortiz a couple of times on HBO Latino and even though it was a beat down it didn't really prove much because Ortiz is done. I simply think that Gorres is improving and coming into his prime whereas Vic is on his downside; 32 is far from a spring chicken at super flyweight.
Interesting to see you are on Vic with such a heavily weighted play for you.
I have always thought that Vic was limited and with time would get exposed, but I took Donaire by decision and missed out on the opportunity. Of course Vic's greatest asset is his power which may bode well since Gorres's biggest weakness is his chin. I get the feeling Gorres finds a way in his home country for some reason. I had him losing by a point to Montiel with the deductions and he impressed me even in defeat, but he was buzzed few times late. I caught his fight with Ortiz a couple of times on HBO Latino and even though it was a beat down it didn't really prove much because Ortiz is done. I simply think that Gorres is improving and coming into his prime whereas Vic is on his downside; 32 is far from a spring chicken at super flyweight.
You're right about the age factor. But I think the difference in our views is partly a result of my very low opinion of Montiel. And Gorres hasn't really fought anyone other than Montiel.
Another contributing factor to the large wager is my opinion that Nonito Donaire is a future star in the division, and Darchinyan got caught badly underestimating him. Regardless, his other wins firmly proved him as a force in this weight class. Gorres doesn't seem to be on the same level as Nonito, and Darchinyan won't be underestimating his opponent this time. He'll put the pressure on Gorres from the beginning, and I just don't think that Gorres can withstand the steady, ferocious charge.
You're right about the age factor. But I think the difference in our views is partly a result of my very low opinion of Montiel. And Gorres hasn't really fought anyone other than Montiel.
Another contributing factor to the large wager is my opinion that Nonito Donaire is a future star in the division, and Darchinyan got caught badly underestimating him. Regardless, his other wins firmly proved him as a force in this weight class. Gorres doesn't seem to be on the same level as Nonito, and Darchinyan won't be underestimating his opponent this time. He'll put the pressure on Gorres from the beginning, and I just don't think that Gorres can withstand the steady, ferocious charge.
Vic Darchinyan vs. Z Gorres Darchinyan (-135) 4.05 units
It ended as a draw, which means that I push the bet. I didn't get to see the fight so I can't comment on it, other than the fact that I heard Darchinyan had Gorres down in the 1st and 9th, while Gorres had Darchinyan down in the third. It's a shame that Darchinyan couldn't finish off Gorres late.
Vic Darchinyan vs. Z Gorres Darchinyan (-135) 4.05 units
It ended as a draw, which means that I push the bet. I didn't get to see the fight so I can't comment on it, other than the fact that I heard Darchinyan had Gorres down in the 1st and 9th, while Gorres had Darchinyan down in the third. It's a shame that Darchinyan couldn't finish off Gorres late.
Mabuza (-800), Jennings (-800), Khan (-1500), Barrett (-600), Williams (-600) 5-leg parlay (-120) 1.2 units (to win 1 unit)
True, I'm a little pissed about the Darchinyan draw (and that's why I'm making another play), but the first four seem to be solid for today, and if they come through, I have Paul Williams at -120 to start off next weekend. Seems like a solid investment.
Mabuza (-800), Jennings (-800), Khan (-1500), Barrett (-600), Williams (-600) 5-leg parlay (-120) 1.2 units (to win 1 unit)
True, I'm a little pissed about the Darchinyan draw (and that's why I'm making another play), but the first four seem to be solid for today, and if they come through, I have Paul Williams at -120 to start off next weekend. Seems like a solid investment.
Mario Santiago vs. Edel Ruiz Over 7.5 (+115) - 1 unit
Dumb, dumb, dumb. I should've realized if a relatively soft puncher like Escobedo could KO Ruiz in three rounds, then Ruiz was totally shot. This one ended late in the first round, as Ruiz was floored by a body shot and had no will to continue. But, hey, let's give it to him for getting past the 1:30 mark:
Mario Santiago vs. Edel Ruiz Over 7.5 (+115) - 1 unit
Dumb, dumb, dumb. I should've realized if a relatively soft puncher like Escobedo could KO Ruiz in three rounds, then Ruiz was totally shot. This one ended late in the first round, as Ruiz was floored by a body shot and had no will to continue. But, hey, let's give it to him for getting past the 1:30 mark:
Not one of my better Boxing weeks. -2.29 units. Only VT/Khan/Lee helped. : (
Too bad I did not run down the CS "flabby" i.e. overweight description prefight. That would have made things more tolerable. Well, there's always next week.
GLA on the SB game. bigeiii
Not one of my better Boxing weeks. -2.29 units. Only VT/Khan/Lee helped. : (
Too bad I did not run down the CS "flabby" i.e. overweight description prefight. That would have made things more tolerable. Well, there's always next week.
I can see how the the ref ruled a slip in 10 and 12, but the KD's in
rounds 5, 9, and 11 were definitely clean...And the Gorres KD of
Darchinyan (round 2?) came immediately after an obvious low-blow that
the ref missed...Can I have my 4 unit winnings, please?
Not to beat a dead horse, but this shows that Darchinyan got robbed:
I can see how the the ref ruled a slip in 10 and 12, but the KD's in
rounds 5, 9, and 11 were definitely clean...And the Gorres KD of
Darchinyan (round 2?) came immediately after an obvious low-blow that
the ref missed...Can I have my 4 unit winnings, please?
I can see how the the ref ruled a slip in 10 and 12, but the KD's in
rounds 5, 9, and 11 were definitely clean...And the Gorres KD of
Darchinyan (round 2?) came immediately after an obvious low-blow that
the ref missed...Can I have my 4 unit winnings, please?
It's the risk boxing bettors take every time they bet on a foreign fighter fighting a guy on his home turf. It has and will always be this way in boxing so you always have to consider it and be prepared to live with the results. It has probably happened to every boxing bettor at least once. BTW, I scored the fight for Vic by 3 points not taking botched calls by the ref into consideration.
Quote Originally Posted by A2C:
Not to beat a dead horse, but this shows that Darchinyan got robbed:
I can see how the the ref ruled a slip in 10 and 12, but the KD's in
rounds 5, 9, and 11 were definitely clean...And the Gorres KD of
Darchinyan (round 2?) came immediately after an obvious low-blow that
the ref missed...Can I have my 4 unit winnings, please?
It's the risk boxing bettors take every time they bet on a foreign fighter fighting a guy on his home turf. It has and will always be this way in boxing so you always have to consider it and be prepared to live with the results. It has probably happened to every boxing bettor at least once. BTW, I scored the fight for Vic by 3 points not taking botched calls by the ref into consideration.
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