Posted:
#1
YTD: 17 plays, 13.75 units
Nothing spectacular out there, but there's still some value, so I'm going with more volume at a smaller amount of units than usual.
Rogelio Castaneda, Jr. vs. Ubaldo Hernandez
Under 9.5 (+275)
.18 unit
Telefutura features a lackluster rematch between veterans going nowhere. 31-year-old Castaneda has 13 losses on his record, with three coming inside the distance. That includes a tenth-round KO loss to Francisco Bojado in July. Prior to that was Castaneda-Hernandez I, in which Castaneda lost a decision after being dropped early in the fight. Hernandez, 30, is also coming off a TKO loss, and his overall record of 22-18, with 8 knockout losses, doesn't inspire confidence in his abilities. Both fighters are pretty much journeymen at this point, so I expect them to come out banging in what is likely to be their last time in a main event on television. Logic says this fight goes the distance, but I love the value of +275 on the under when you have two older fighters going at it. A stoppage due to cuts or corner retirement is a distinct possibility.
Kermin Guardia vs. Juan Esquer
Over 11.5 (-130)
.65 unit
Yawn. Telemundo features a battle between light flyweights who seem to be going nowhere. That's because Guardia is 37-years-old with losses in his last four fights against quality opponents, while the young Esquer (21-years-old) is just 3-2-1 since December 2006. Those three wins came by knockout, but the combined record of those opponents was 2-36. Esquer's decision loss to Manuel Vargas is understandable, but I'm not so sure about dropping a decision to Jesus Iribe. Although Esquer sports 17 KOs in his 21 wins, his power hasn't translated when stepping up to face decent competition. But he has never been KO'd, which is a good sign that this fight might go the distance. Meanwhile, Guardia hasn't KO'd anyone since 1998, and his only KO loss came against Nelson Dieppa, who is in a higher class than either of these fighters tonight. Anything can happen in boxing, but this is great value on an over, as these fighters' records suggest that neither can floor the other.
Travis Walker v. T.J. Wilson
Wilson +250, .4 unit
Over 6.5 (-110), .55 unit
28-year-old Travis Walker is an overrated heavyweight prospect whose best wins came against George Garcia (split decision) and Jason Estrada (majority decision). The near-loss to Garcia looks especially bad when you consider that Garcia fought to a draw against journeyman Kendrick Relaford, who looked awful against Tye Fields in August. If Walker was a legitimate prospect, he'd be knocking out guys like Estrada and Garcia (or, at the very least, winning wide decisions). Meanwhile, T.J. Wilson has a nice amateur pedigree, and his lone loss was a result of leaving his guard down to due to overconfidence. Wilson should have learned his lesson from this KO loss, so I expect him to intelligently box against a beatable Walker. The total is set entirely too low considering that Walker went to decisions against Garcia and Estrada. Also, because Walker is overrated, the +250 on Wilson offers nice value. A points win for Wilson wouldn't be out of the question.
Nothing spectacular out there, but there's still some value, so I'm going with more volume at a smaller amount of units than usual.
Rogelio Castaneda, Jr. vs. Ubaldo Hernandez
Under 9.5 (+275)
.18 unit
Telefutura features a lackluster rematch between veterans going nowhere. 31-year-old Castaneda has 13 losses on his record, with three coming inside the distance. That includes a tenth-round KO loss to Francisco Bojado in July. Prior to that was Castaneda-Hernandez I, in which Castaneda lost a decision after being dropped early in the fight. Hernandez, 30, is also coming off a TKO loss, and his overall record of 22-18, with 8 knockout losses, doesn't inspire confidence in his abilities. Both fighters are pretty much journeymen at this point, so I expect them to come out banging in what is likely to be their last time in a main event on television. Logic says this fight goes the distance, but I love the value of +275 on the under when you have two older fighters going at it. A stoppage due to cuts or corner retirement is a distinct possibility.
Kermin Guardia vs. Juan Esquer
Over 11.5 (-130)
.65 unit
Yawn. Telemundo features a battle between light flyweights who seem to be going nowhere. That's because Guardia is 37-years-old with losses in his last four fights against quality opponents, while the young Esquer (21-years-old) is just 3-2-1 since December 2006. Those three wins came by knockout, but the combined record of those opponents was 2-36. Esquer's decision loss to Manuel Vargas is understandable, but I'm not so sure about dropping a decision to Jesus Iribe. Although Esquer sports 17 KOs in his 21 wins, his power hasn't translated when stepping up to face decent competition. But he has never been KO'd, which is a good sign that this fight might go the distance. Meanwhile, Guardia hasn't KO'd anyone since 1998, and his only KO loss came against Nelson Dieppa, who is in a higher class than either of these fighters tonight. Anything can happen in boxing, but this is great value on an over, as these fighters' records suggest that neither can floor the other.
Travis Walker v. T.J. Wilson
Wilson +250, .4 unit
Over 6.5 (-110), .55 unit
28-year-old Travis Walker is an overrated heavyweight prospect whose best wins came against George Garcia (split decision) and Jason Estrada (majority decision). The near-loss to Garcia looks especially bad when you consider that Garcia fought to a draw against journeyman Kendrick Relaford, who looked awful against Tye Fields in August. If Walker was a legitimate prospect, he'd be knocking out guys like Estrada and Garcia (or, at the very least, winning wide decisions). Meanwhile, T.J. Wilson has a nice amateur pedigree, and his lone loss was a result of leaving his guard down to due to overconfidence. Wilson should have learned his lesson from this KO loss, so I expect him to intelligently box against a beatable Walker. The total is set entirely too low considering that Walker went to decisions against Garcia and Estrada. Also, because Walker is overrated, the +250 on Wilson offers nice value. A points win for Wilson wouldn't be out of the question.
A winning weekend is a good weekend.
on Wilson.
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